Honduras’ National Electoral Commission (CNE) on Tuesday called for “patience” as it began manual vote counting in one of the closest presidential elections the country has seen in more than a decade, with US President Donald Trump threatening to cut aid to the country.
Vote counting has been interrupted due to technical problems with the vote counting results website. Right-wing candidate Nasri Asfura is said to hold a narrow lead as of the latest tallies for the November 30 election, but the race remains effectively a “technical draw” and no official winner has yet been declared.
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President Trump has publicly supported Asfura and threatened to cut off U.S. aid to Honduras if his candidate doesn’t win. He also accused the CNE of trying to “change” the result at this stage by calling it a “technical draw” and doubled down on vague threats of retaliation in a post published on the Truth Social platform.
Observers say this is the latest example of President Trump trying to interfere in the internal affairs of other countries, some of them in South America.
Who are the main candidates and what do they support?
Asfura, 67, of the right-wing Honduran National Party, is campaigning on a promise of economic stability, foreign investment and a stronger stance on security.
President Trump expressed his support for Asufura, calling him “the only true friend of freedom in Honduras” in a post on Truth Social and urging people to vote for him.
Asufura’s main rival, 72-year-old Salvador Nasrallah, is running under the banner of the Liberal Party and has positioned himself as a centrist reformer focused on restoring the rule of law and fighting corruption.
Rixie Moncada, a candidate for the left-wing ruling party Freedom and Renewal, calls herself a defender of President Xiomara Castro’s leftist legacy.
Moncada, 60, proposed “democratizing the economy” by expanding credit, strengthening national production and building an economic model that creates “real opportunity for all.” She also proposes constitutional amendments to support judicial reforms to combat corruption.
“We are fearlessly fighting corruption head-on. There is only one way to reform the justice system: with a majority in Congress,” Moncada said during the campaign.
Throughout the election period, polls have fragmented the electorate with no clear favorite, and now the stage is set for a tough count.
How was Mr. Trump involved in this election?
President Trump vowed that there would be “hell to pay” in Honduras if election officials tampered with the results. He threatened to cut off U.S. aid to the country if his preferred right-wing candidate did not win.
Although President Trump has not specified the specific aid that will be halted, the United States provides substantial economic, development and security packages to Honduras, a country of about 11 million people, each year.
The U.S. president also showed favoritism to Juan Orlando Hernandez, a former president of Honduras and member of the country’s right-wing National Party, pardoning his drug conviction in the United States and releasing him from a 45-year prison sentence. Hernandez was released from the USP Hazelton high-security facility in West Virginia on Monday.
He was extradited to the United States in 2022 and convicted in 2024 of conspiracy to import cocaine into the United States and possession of a machine gun. President Trump justified the pardon decision in a social media post on Friday, saying Hernandez was “treated very harshly and unjustly.”
What kind of aid is the United States providing to Honduras?
In 2024, the United States provided just under $193.5 million in aid to Honduras, according to government data.
Much of the money flowed through the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) and through programs aimed at supporting small businesses, strengthening local governance, improving the agricultural sector, and expanding education and health services, according to the U.S. State Department website. Approximately $10 million was paid directly to the Honduran government.
USAID was shut down by the Trump administration earlier this year. It is unclear how that portion of aid will be allocated in the future.
Another major pillar is security cooperation through the U.S. Department of State and the Central America Regional Security Initiative. The Central America Regional Security Initiative provides funding for police training, support for anti-drug operations, and youth and community violence prevention efforts.
These programs are deeply embedded in Honduras’ security and social infrastructure. Experts say a sudden shutdown could disrupt everything from the ability of police to operate to the basic activities that NGOs can carry out.
How will Honduras be affected if President Trump cuts off aid?
As one of the region’s poorest countries and a major source of immigration to the United States, the aid is by no means merely symbolic. We support critical state functions in regions where violence, poverty and climate disasters drive migration.
Experts and rights groups warned earlier this year that a sudden cut in funding to Honduras could worsen security, weaken already strained public services and accelerate migration.
Nearly 30,000 Hondurans have been deported from the United States since President Trump returned to power in January, according to Honduran government data. The crackdown has hit the country hard, with remittances from overseas workers accounting for about 25% of gross domestic product last year.
Is this another example of President Trump interfering in the affairs of South American countries?
President Trump’s comments about the Honduras election fit into a broader pattern that observers say they’ve seen this year. He has openly pressured governments or sided with certain opposition parties in several countries, particularly Venezuela.
In Venezuela, the Trump administration is accused of seeking “regime change” against the government of President Nicolás Maduro through military operations that attack Venezuelan fishing boats in the Caribbean and eastern Pacific that the administration claims are carrying out drug trafficking.
Since September 2, the US military has carried out at least 21 boat attacks, killing more than 80 people. President Trump said he was not ruling out military action over land. However, the US has not shown any evidence of drug trafficking.
The United States is also building a huge military presence in the Caribbean, arguing it is necessary for national security and to thwart an “invasion” by Venezuelan drug cartels.
President Maduro accused the US government of “fabricating a new forever war” against him.
In Brazil, President Trump earlier this year publicly questioned the legitimacy of criminal coup charges against former President Jair Bolsonaro, strengthened his claims of political persecution and suggested the country’s courts were being used to eliminate right-wing allies of the United States. Bolsonaro was ultimately sentenced to 27 years in prison.
The US president’s comments were sharply criticized by Brazilian lawmakers, who said he was trying to delegitimize their country’s system.
Earlier this year, President Trump also accused the Mexican government of fentanyl trafficking, saying Mexico is “run by cartels.” He has threatened to increase trade tariffs if the government does not hand over those involved, and has also threatened U.S. military action.
In Argentina, President Trump lavished praise on right-wing populist President Javier Milei, saying the United States would not “waste time” in aiding Argentina if Milley’s party did not win future elections. Argentina’s presidential elections are not scheduled until 2027, but President Trump said the United States would have “a very different feeling” about its support for the country if “the socialists win.”
Milley’s party won October’s parliamentary elections with more than 40% of the vote after threats from President Trump over aid.
