On December 20, 2025, days after US President Donald Trump announced a “blockade” of all sanctioned oil tankers traveling to and from Venezuela, east of Barbados in the Caribbean, a US military helicopter flying over the Panamanian-flagged Century was intercepted by the US Coast Guard.
Department of Homeland Security | via Reuters
The escalating U.S. operation to seize oil tankers linked to Venezuelan oil could also increase tensions between Washington and China if more oil bound for the Chinese market becomes entangled in U.S. military operations.
On Saturday, the Panamanian-flagged tanker Centuries, which was carrying sanctioned Venezuelan oil, was seized, an action China condemned. The seizure was the latest in President Donald Trump’s pledge to intercept tankers carrying Venezuelan oil. Maritime experts say the move may have relied on legal authorities suggesting more seizures could be made in the future and more oil bound for the Chinese market could be targeted.
Dimitris Ampatzidis, senior risk and compliance analyst at Kpler, said the seizure of the Panamanian-flagged Century may have been under the 2002 Salas-Becker agreement, which allows U.S. authorities to board Panamanian-flagged ships with as little as two hours’ notice.
“The most interesting aspect of the Centuries seizure is that it suggests that the United States is likely relying on a prior embarkation agreement with Panamanian maritime authorities,” Ampatsidis said, adding that the use of this agreement could lead to further seizures.
Of the 23 shadow tankers currently identified in Venezuela’s exclusive economic zone, three of them operate under the Panamanian flag and are carrying sanctioned Venezuelan oil, according to Kpler’s analysis.
“When Ragnar, Barça and Larco try to leave, they are placed in a higher risk enforcement category because they are operating under the Panamanian flag,” Ampatsidis said. “We’re seeing seizures just like we saw with Century.”
Ragnar was loaded on December 16th, Barça and Larco on December 17th.
“Besides the already sanctioned vessels, the United States appears increasingly willing to target other vessels associated with the shadow fleet, particularly stateless (stateless) or Panamanian-flagged vessels, if they attempt to leave Venezuela with cargo,” Ampatsidis said.
“The most interesting aspect of all of this is that by extracting Venezuelan oil, they are not only putting tremendous pressure on the Maduro regime, but they are also strategically influencing China,” said Aaron Ross, a former Coast Guard captain and head of federal strategy and security at Chertoff Group. “The longer this situation drags on, the more room there may be for U.S.-China diplomacy to negotiate, because Venezuelan oil is discounted by China and is the kind of heavy crude that China can refine,” he said. “Without VZ oil, China would have to go to markets in Russia and the Middle East, which would be more expensive,” he added.
Venezuela will produce about 900,000 barrels of crude oil and condensate by 2025, accounting for about 1% of the world’s total supply. China buys about 76% of Venezuela’s production, according to Kpler data. The United States will import about 17% of Venezuela’s output in 2025. This is equivalent to about half of the imported output in 2024. Cuba, Spain and Italy are also important customers for Venezuelan oil.
The U.S. Coast Guard and the U.S. Department of Transportation both contacted the White House for comment, but did not respond by press time.
Recent history of the seized Centuries tanker
Kpler data showed that Centuries was previously actively involved in multiple operations related to the transportation of Venezuelan crude oil and fuel oil, including long-haul tanker loading at Venezuela’s Jose Oil Terminal, and as a transshipment vessel operating off the coasts of Venezuela and Malaysia.
Kpler data showed that the US seized crude oil centuries after loading it into the Jose oil terminal. Kpler data detected a spoofed AIS position concealing the tanker’s location just before it was loaded onto the tanker. The false signal indicated that the ship had sailed towards the Caribbean Sea in early December, arriving on the north coast of Curaçao on December 12, ostensibly remaining stationary in the area.
However, image analysis by Kpler showed that the ship had actually been off the coast of Venezuela since at least December 4. Additional supporting images showed the tanker was empty during that period. However, on December 9, satellite images confirmed that the tanker was being loaded at the western pier of the Venezuelan port of JOT.
VLCC’s century trajectory
Kupler
According to Venezuelan port operations reports reviewed by Kupler, the ship, also known as the Crag, loaded about 2 million barrels of Venezuelan Meray crude from the same berth around the same time as the Centuries. After loading, Centuries remained just east of JOT, and images on Dec. 16 showed the tanker located off the coast of Lecheria, Venezuela.
“Two days later, satellite imagery showed the vessel departing Venezuelan waters and being observed approximately three miles south of Grenada, consistent with it being sailing toward Asia,” said Kupler’s report on the Centuries seizure.
The market cannot know in advance whether a vessel full of sanctioned oil will be heading directly to China, and confirmation can only be made after the fact, with spoofing and transshipment taking place between tankers to avoid detection. Kpler said both ships seized over the weekend had a history of transporting crude oil to China.
Centuries was first observed in April 2020 carrying 2 million barrels of sanctioned Venezuelan Melay crude oil. The crude oil was discharged at the Yantai oil terminal in China’s Shandong province.
The second ship, Bela 1, which was seized over the weekend, was empty and headed for Venezuela. Earlier this year, the tanker transported Iranian oil to Qingdao, Shandong province, in mid-March. Built from Venezuela, Vera 1’s last voyage was in May 2023, and its oil was also sent to Qingdao and Tianjin in China.
“It remains to be seen how China would react if the Trump administration seizes a ship heading to Japan,” said Andrew Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates.
The seizure of Panama-flagged vessels like the Century also comes amid existing friction between the United States, China and Panama over control of the Panama Canal. President Trump has threatened to retake the Panama Canal, claiming it is controlled by China.
“Geopolitics is increasingly influencing global trade, economic relations and maritime supply chains in many ways, and this seems to be another example of this,” said Peter Sand, chief shipping analyst at Zeneta.
The U.S.’s use of a legal agreement requiring Panama’s cooperation in seizing the ship could be viewed by China in the context of a major battle over the canal. “If the vessel is truly Panamanian-flagged and you’re embarking on the high seas, you typically need permission from the flag state (Panama in the case of Centuries),” said Brandon Daniels, CEO of supply chain consulting firm Exigar. “The United States and Panama have a framework that could streamline that agreement, which most likely refers to cooperation through Salas Becker or another mechanism,” he said.
China has called recent US actions a violation of international law, but the US is treating the seizure as a shadow fleet tactic aimed at evading sanctions and defeating enforcement. “I lean heavily toward the latter, given the documented misrepresentation of origin in this case,” Daniels said.
But Daniels added that he spoke with Panamanian President Jose Raul Mulino earlier this year about tensions over the Panama Canal and that “the president takes their sovereignty very seriously.”
Hong Kong-based CK Hutchison owns and operates the ports of Balboa and Cristobal on either side of the canal. The US accuses China of having “influence and control” over the canal and says the threat is a “violation of the treaty” between the US and Panama.
A preliminary agreement reached earlier this year between CK Hutchison and a consortium led by BlackRock through its Global Infrastructure Partners unit and Mediterranean Shipping to sell two disputed ports in the Panama Canal has stalled. The Chinese government opposes the deal. China is reportedly asking state-owned ocean shipping company Cosco to take control of the proposed $22.8 billion deal.
Daniels said the Trump administration’s concerns about Chinese influence will remain if Cosco is added to the deal. But he said Mulino also values ”trust with our Asian trading partners.”
“We do not believe that China’s more aggressive actions against Balboa and Cristobal will prevent Panama from maintaining canal neutrality or cooperating with the United States,” Daniels said.
“China could gain a chokehold in global trade container transshipment capacity, berthing priorities, yard operations and commercial data depletion due to Cosco’s dominance. That will certainly put pressure on the supply chain,” he said. “However, the Chinese Communist Party is still able to influence organizations in Hong Kong today, including the current head of operations CK,” he added.
Mr. Daniels said the current situation shows that Panama has a dynamic and complex relationship with both China and the United States. “Panama is very focused on being a South Asia corridor and a major flag state for shipping, but it also has a strategic imperative for sustainable financing and seeks cooperation with the United States.”
