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Further dips in consumer wallets this holiday season are expected to continue into Thanksgiving and Christmas, a trend already seen in the Halloween product market.
DataWeave, which analyzes SKUs (stock-keeping units), the scannable codes that retailers use to identify and track products, says prices for relatively inexpensive Halloween items have increased significantly, especially pumpkin carving-related products. Pumpkin Masters, a popular pumpkin carving company that offers a wide range of carving and decorating kits, topped the price increase list, with year-over-year increases of 300%.
The duty burden paid by importers or representative brands ranged from 58.1% to 59.6%, according to customs officials who scrutinized Chinese-made products and calculated approximate tariff costs for CNBC. Nunzio de Filippis, a tariff relief expert and licensed customs broker, pointed out that at these levels, importers currently pay duties and fees that are more than half of the product’s value.
Joe Enns, CEO of Signature Brands, which owns Pumpkin Masters (in addition to Betty Crocker, Purse, Cakemate, Gift Pop and Brand Castle), told CNBC that while the majority of the cake decorating business is manufactured domestically in Ocala, Florida, Pumpkin Masters and Purse are 100% made in China. The company’s products were the subject of the first trade war in 2018, but this time the increased tariffs made it difficult to keep prices at their original levels, he said.
“Given the scale of the tariffs we’re talking about here, it’s hard to imagine that the supply chain would absorb that much domestically,” Enns said. “Frankly, it’s the retailer who ultimately determines the price.”
According to SKU analysis by DataWeave, the biggest increase in value among low-priced holiday products was Pumpkin Masters Xtreme Strobe Light White, with a whopping 331% increase in retail price. In 2024, the same light inserted into a pumpkin to illuminate it will retail for $1.62, a price that will remain consistent starting in 2022. In 2025, this product will retail for $6.99.
Retail stores are selling the products at a huge discount from the list price. The product was originally listed for $6.99, but was later reduced to $3.49, according to Kroger’s website. It was displayed as sold out. Even with the discount, the price increases by 115.4%
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Enns said consumer demand remains strong even as prices rise. “Pumpkin carving is an annual tradition that they want to maintain. It’s such a cherished consumer behavior that a pumpkin carving kit that costs less than $6 won’t fundamentally change people,” he said.
Ens said Signature Brands now has a better understanding of consumer behavior in response to price increases for holiday items. For example, the cost of eggs was a big issue last Easter. “It’s a similar relationship to an increase in activity costs,” Enns said.
Other Pumpkin Master products were also listed at significantly higher prices this year.
Local grocer Giant Eagle has increased the price of Pumpkin Masters contest winners’ pattern books by 330%. Pumpkin Masters Flight Light Kits increased by 302%. Pumpkin Master Carving Party Kits increased by 302%.
Kroger is also selling Pumpkin Masters Jack-O-Lantern Teeth, with prices up 283%. Pumpkin Masters Masters Collection grew by 214%.
Kroger-owned Pick ‘n Save is also selling similar items at more than 100% mark-up.
Kroger and Giant Eagle did not respond to CNBC’s requests for comment about their pricing strategies.
William George, director of research at ImportGenius, said an examination of bills of lading and receipts detailing cargo shipments to the United States showed that shipment levels of pumpkin carving tools have remained roughly flat over the past three years. Other shipments are also available, including cauldrons, skeletons, and tombstones in the product description. “I think the real takeaway is that we’re seeing a slight decrease in shipments with Halloween labels and a significant decrease in shipments with Halloween costume labels,” George said.
“Since a large part of our business is direct imports, we are seeing a slight reduction in inventory being brought in on the assumption that consumer conditions may ease as our retail partners manage their operations overseas,” Enns said.
Signature Brands is considering reshoring the production of both Pumpkin Masters and Path Inc., which make its popular Easter products, but Enns said it would be very difficult to remain competitive given other markets and the labor costs of products made in injection molds.
Seasonal items like Pumpkin Masters and passes are typically planned a year in advance of the holiday.
“We are in the midst of defining the demand for 2026 and will see how this season goes,” Enns said. “While higher prices are not desirable for this type of annual purchase, people are investing in traditions with their grandchildren and children, and we expect Velocity to be as strong as it has been in the past.”
The National Retail Federation predicts that this year’s Halloween spending will reach a record $114 per person, likely due to higher prices overall.
“Prices are rising across related categories, including costumes, candy, and pumpkin carving supplies, as retailers grapple with global uncertainty and seek to manage the impact and dollar amounts that are passed on to consumers,” said Lauren Murphy, managing director at Wells Fargo Retail Finance.
Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer at One Point Wealth Advisors, said rising prices from low-end items will have an overall impact on consumers. For example, in addition to pumpkin carving products, Halloween candy is also up 10.8%, nearly four times the overall inflation rate compared to last year, according to the Century Foundation.
“The period between Halloween and Christmas will be a big test of American consumers’ tolerance for tariffs as they face their financial challenges in the coming months,” he said. “The problem with tariffs for a trade-deficit country like the United States, which imports far more than it exports, is that imposing a flat tariff on almost everything is like filtering water through every crack, in that households and businesses have to eat most of it.”
