A man holds a sign that reads “SNAP Feeds Families” during a Rally for SNAP on the steps of the Massachusetts State House on October 28, 2025 in Boston, Massachusetts, as food assistance benefits are suspended starting November 1 as the U.S. government continues to shut down.
brian snyder reuter
The government shutdown is entering its 28th day, with about 42 million Americans just days away from missing their monthly food stamp checks.
The Trump administration has said that if the federal government is still shut down on Nov. 1, no Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) funds will be distributed. There has been little movement toward a resolution on Capitol Hill, and Congress appears on track to exceed its deadline.
The expiration of aid will have a devastating impact on millions of households already struggling to put food on the table, forcing people across the country to turn to food banks for help. This decrease in spending will have a ripple effect on the economy, from small grocery stores to large chains such as: walmart It also includes retailers who sell discretionary goods.
Wolf Research analyst Spencer Hanas said in a note to investors on Monday that there could be an “immediate purchasing mix impact” on lower-margin groceries and household staples, and theft could increase as food budgets deplete. Hanus said consumer confidence among low-income Americans could also take a hit heading into the holiday season.
SNAP recipients received an average of about $187 per month in fiscal year 2024, according to government data. Of these beneficiaries, 73% live below the poverty line, which is currently less than $32,150 for a family of four.
After years of high food inflation and the size of other recent government benefits, the loss of that aid would be a huge blow to many low-income Americans.
According to data from Numerator, consumers who use SNAP benefits to pay for groceries spend more and shop more frequently than other shoppers.
According to the market research firm, SNAP beneficiaries spend an average of $832 a month on groceries, 20% more than non-SNAP users, but spend an average of 12% less on each trip, or about $20.80 less per trip. According to Numerator, SNAP shoppers visit retail stores 6.6 times a month, compared to 6.1 times for those not receiving assistance.
Hanus said the company has seen a spike in interest in Google searches for “food bank” and “food stamps” as SNAP recipients look for alternatives. Interest in these terms often increases around Thanksgiving, he said, but “this is a significant year-over-year increase, suggesting this consumer is feeling the shock here.”
The potential loss of aid due to the government shutdown is the second recent blow to the government’s food assistance program for low-income Americans. The One Big Beautiful Act, passed by Republicans this year, would cut SNAP benefits by an estimated 20%.
Hanus estimates that the bill’s spending changes would hit retail industry sales by 1.5 to 2 percent.
Retailers Most Reliant on SNAP Benefit Disbursements
People shop at a Dollar General store on May 28, 2025 in Chicago, Illinois.
Scott Olson | Getty Images
There are many ways to think about how the expiration of SNAP benefits will affect retailers, but grocery stores are likely to be hurt. And that impact could extend to employees as well.
“Grocery store staffing and inventory are often planned around benefit cycles, so their expiration could lead to fewer hours for employees, loss of fresh food, and lost sales,” the National Grocers Association, an industry group, said in a statement. “Furthermore, once benefits are restored, the resulting surge in demand could strain national supply chains.”
Molecular data shows Walmart. dollar general and dollar tree While likely catering to SNAP shoppers; target, costco and AmazonOwning Whole Foods is unlikely. Hanus estimates that Walmart’s SNAP-related sales are in the low single digits, while Dollar General and Dollar Tree’s sales are in the mid-single digits.
However, SNAP users spend the most annually on groceries at Walmart, followed by groceries. kroger According to the numerator, Costco.
A customer enters a Walmart store on April 9, 2025 in San Leandro, California.
Justin Sullivan | Getty Images News | Getty Images
Walmart is the nation’s largest retailer and the nation’s largest grocery store. It also captures significantly more SNAP grocery spending than its competitors, Numerator found. More than 94% of SNAP shoppers have purchased food there in the past year, with an average annual spend of $2,653, representing 26% of this cohort’s annual grocery spending.
Just under half of all SNAP recipients, 48.8%, shopped at Kroger in the past year, spending an average of $1,687.67 annually. This equates to 8.6% of the group’s total annual grocery spend.
Costco, which requires a membership to shop, is the No. 3 place for SNAP users to buy groceries, with an average annual spend of $1,482.98. Sam’s Club, the Walmart-owned membership club, ranks fourth in spending share with 3.8% and offers discounted memberships to new members who confirm their participation in government aid programs.
Walmart told CNBC it contacted the National Retail Federation, which said cutting off food assistance funding “puts millions of American families at risk.” Albertsons referred CNBC to the Food Industry Association, which called on Congress to reopen the government and “ensure these critical programs remain reliable for those who must rely on them to get through these difficult times.”
Costco declined to comment. Kroger, Dollar General, Dollar Tree, Amazon and Whole Foods did not respond to requests for comment.
According to Numerator, 3.6% of in-store grocery purchases in the U.S. from 2025 through September were paid for using the government’s SNAP or Women, Infants and Children benefits, down from 3.9% in 2024. This rate is down from the pandemic peak of 6.5% in November 2021, when additional emergency allocations were made.
However, more grocery trips are now being funded with SNAP benefits than before the pandemic, when 2.2% to 2.8% of groceries were purchased under the program in all months from February 2019 to February 2020.
Impact beyond food
When SNAP funds expire, recipients may also be able to purchase fewer other items.
“Consumers will have fewer dollars in their wallets and reallocation of discretionary dollars to groceries and overall spending,” Wells Fargo equity analyst Edward Kelly said in a note to investors last week. He noted that retailers reporting profits in November may say that the expiration of food assistance reduced discretionary spending for the month.
There has never been a time before when the federal government did not take emergency steps to fund SNAP during a government shutdown, but states are also starting to step in. New York Governor Kathy Hochul is working on $30 million in aid for affected New Yorkers.
Additionally, missed SNAP benefits should be paid in arrears once the government reopens, but it’s unclear when that will be.
“While we expect the government shutdown to eventually resolve, this could mean a windfall for consumers on the lower end of the spectrum as late payments are made up, entering peak shopping season,” Kelly said.
