Melissa strengthened into a hurricane with winds of 90 mph on Saturday, as the U.S. National Hurricane Center warned it would become a rare Category 5 hurricane by Monday afternoon.
The hurricane’s center is located 130 miles southeast of Kingston, Jamaica, and the storm’s speed is just 3 mph.
“It goes without saying that Jamaica faces a very serious situation in terms of the risk of catastrophic rainfall, winds and storm surge, and areas currently under hurricane warnings need to urgently prepare,” the NHC issued a warning on Saturday afternoon.
Torrential rains are affecting parts of Haiti and will begin late Saturday in Jamaica and continue for several days, with devastating and potentially life-threatening effects.
Jamaica is likely to be the epicenter of the worst of Melissa’s triple threat of flooding from extreme rainfall, wind damage and storm surge. Melissa could make landfall in Jamaica late Monday or early Tuesday. Haiti also continues to be threatened by Melissa’s devastating floods and landslides.
A hurricane warning is in effect in Jamaica, with strong winds expected to begin tonight. Southern Haiti is under a hurricane warning.
Melissa has been moving at a snail’s pace for days now, and isn’t expected to pick up speed anytime soon as it moves generally west into Sunday night.
That slow movement is already causing problems. Torrential rains have battered Haiti and the Dominican Republic for much of the week, causing flooding and landslides. At least three deaths were reported in Haiti due to the storm, two of which were caused by landslides, the Haitian Civil Protection Agency said in a statement. At least one person has died and more than 1,000 people have been evacuated or displaced in the Dominican Republic, officials said Friday.
Melissa is expected to rapidly develop into a Category 4 or higher hurricane by Sunday afternoon, increasing the threat of destructive winds and storm surge along with heavy rain as it tracks near or south of Jamaica into early next week. The possibility of landfall as a Category 5 hurricane cannot be ruled out, and Melissa could become the strongest hurricane on record to make landfall in Jamaica.
As the world warms due to fossil fuel pollution, this explosive intensification will occur more frequently. Three of this season’s four Atlantic hurricanes developed very quickly: Erin, Gabriel, and Humberto.
Jamaica, Haiti and the southern Dominican Republic will face the worst of the storm until at least early next week. Strong winds, storm surge and heavy rain will be next in eastern Cuba, the southern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands.
Rainfall totals are expected to reach 30 inches in southwest Haiti and parts of Jamaica through Tuesday, with local maximums of 40 inches. Eastern Cuba could receive up to 18 inches total.
In Haiti, the hurricane center warned on Saturday that “extensive damage is expected to roads and buildings, and communities may be isolated for an extended period of time.” “This is a life-threatening situation and immediate preparations should be made to protect life and property.”
Jamaica will not only have to endure heavy rainfall from Melissa, but will also have to contend with ferocious winds that will last for several days. The country of about 3 million people is likely to see hurricane-force winds by Sunday or Monday. The most extreme winds are likely as Melissa tracks near Jamaica from Monday into Tuesday. Fallen trees, power outages, and damage to buildings could be widespread.
Officials in the country are already preparing for the worst. All public hospitals have been in “emergency mode” since Thursday night, canceling outpatient services and elective surgeries to free up more beds, Jamaica’s Health Minister Christopher Tufton said.
Jamaica’s airports are open for now, but Norman Manley International Airport will close Saturday night after the last scheduled flight arrives at 8pm local time (9pm ET), Transport Minister Darryl Vaz announced. The closure of Sangster International Airport will be discussed later Saturday, Vaz said at a news conference.
“There is no place to be safe from the ferocity of this hurricane,” Evan Thompson, chief director of the Jamaica Meteorological Service, said on Saturday. “It’s sitting there and pouring water while it’s barely moving, which is a significant challenge…as long as what’s predicted actually happens.”
Jamaican Prime Minister Andrew Holness called on the public to take the threat seriously at a press conference on Friday, saying: “We have been well informed that (Melissa) is coming and it could have dire consequences, so please take every step to protect yourself.”
Jamaicans speaking to Reuters on Saturday acknowledged the danger of Melissa’s slow-moving hurricane, in contrast to Hurricane Beryl.
“Even if it moves slowly, it can do a lot of damage, right?” said Clive Davis, a fisherman from Kingston. “Unlike Beryl, Beryl has speed and never stays too long. Just passes by. But now she wants to stay and visit Jamaica. Why?”
“Business will slow down, but that’s natural,” Davis added. “Humans can’t go against nature, right?”
Over Saturday, workers in Kingston dredged as much trash and silt as they could from the bottom of Sandy Gully, a roughly 20-kilometre-long waterway that snakes along the city’s west side. As Melissa dumps months’ worth of rain as it passes over Jamaica, a bulging, debris-filled gorge could destroy bridges and split Kingston in half.
The continental United States is not expected to be directly threatened by Melissa. Still, rough seas and rip currents could spread across the U.S. East Coast next week.
It’s hardly moving. When a storm comes, rain falls on the same town for days on end. In similar circumstances, Hurricane Harvey in 2017 dumped more than four feet of rain on parts of Texas, and Hurricane Dorian in 2019 dumped nearly two feet of rain on the Bahamas and more than a foot of rain on parts of South Carolina, causing devastating flooding.
Mountains increase the threat of flooding. The steep terrain of Haiti, Jamaica, and the Dominican Republic forces the air upward, squeezing more moisture out of the storm like squeezing a wet sponge, turning tropical moisture into torrents rushing downhill. Landslides are almost certain to occur in this scenario. This happened last year when Hurricane Helen devastated western North Carolina.
Caribbean fever runs deep. The very warm waters of the Caribbean Sea extend far below the surface, preventing the normal “stirring” of cold water that can weaken hurricanes. Melissa is expected to revel in its deep thermal reserves and raise the upper limits of its potential strength.
Hurricane Beryl in July 2024 was the last storm to significantly impact Jamaica. Although it did not make landfall, heavy rain and strong winds battered the island as it passed south as a Category 4 storm.
As this difficult forecast comes into focus, all signs point to Jamaica being the epicenter of what could be one of the most destructive hurricanes of the season.
