If Iran collapses, Russia will lose an ally. Why is it important for Moscow?

As the civil war gathers steam and Iran’s future hangs in the balance, powerful ally Russia can only watch as the United States ponders its next move against the Islamic Republic.

US President Donald Trump has not ruled out a military strike against the conservative religious regime that has ruled Iran since 1979. He repeated that threat on Tuesday, warning that the United States would take “very strong action” if Iran executes arrested protesters. President Trump has already said countries doing business with Iran will face a 25% tariff.

Given Tehran’s status as an important strategic, military, economic, and trade partner for Moscow in the Middle East, Russia will be focused on how events in Iran unfold.

The prospect of a new ally collapsing in the Middle East would be worrying for Russia, especially since its alliances with Venezuela, Syria, and the Caucasus have recently been upended and it has seen its power and influence abroad decline.

Max Hess, founder of political risk consultancy Enmetena Advisory, told CNBC on Tuesday that “Moscow views a potential loss to Iran as a far more significant risk to state posture in the region than the loss of influence in Syria or Venezuela or perhaps Armenia over the past few years.”

“The reason is that Iran itself is a regional power projector, providing Russia with a platform to build alliances and expand its influence.”

Mario Bikalski, senior Europe and Central Asia analyst at Verisk Maplecroft, agreed that a regime collapse would not only be a concern for Russia as it would mean a loss of power and influence again, but could also spark broader regional instability in the Caucasus region that separates Russia and Iran.

“There have been Iranian protests in the past, but Russia has always been watching, but they didn’t react, probably because they wanted the Iranian regime to be able to withstand the pressure. But[this time]the pressure is increasing, and it’s not just internal but external,” he told CNBC on Tuesday.

“If the Iranian regime collapses, Russia will likely have to scramble to find new ways to prevent instability from reaching its borders and maintain some influence in the region,” he said.

If a leadership vacuum develops in Iran and rival factions vie for power, leading to further violence and unrest, it would mean “major security problems for Russia and many other countries in the region,” Bikalsky warned.

Although neither the Kremlin nor Russian President Vladimir Putin has commented on events unfolding in Iran, a silent response from the Russian leadership is not unusual when trying to determine the outcome of a particular event and how its strategic interests will be affected.

Russian state media has downplayed coverage of the protests in Iran, but Russian Security Council Secretary Sergei Shoigu on Monday echoed Iran’s condemnation of Western interference and condemned what he called “attempts by foreign powers to interfere in Iran’s internal affairs.”

A common anti-Western ideology is another factor uniting Russia and Iran, as well as international sanctions. In other words, Iran was one of the few international partners Russia could rely on for military assistance after its 2022 invasion of Ukraine.

Relations deepened significantly during the war, with Iran supplying Russia with Shahed attack drones and reportedly missiles, ammunition and artillery for use in the war. The Iranian government has acknowledged supplying drones to Russia, but says it did so before the war.

In return, Iran reportedly received military technology and intelligence from Russia, as well as funding for its space and missile programs. Tehran is also thought to have coveted Russian Su-35 fighter jets and S-400 air defense missile systems, although it is unclear whether it actually received these.

But one of the clearest signs that the alliance was more tenuous than it first appeared was when Russia backed out amid rising tensions between Iran and Israel and amid 12 days of U.S. and Israeli airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities.

Analysts told CNBC at the time that while Russia is unlikely to be able to support Iran militarily given its operations in Ukraine, it is also not willing to support Iran because a direct conflict with the United States or Israel would be too dangerous and damaging for Russia.

Russia’s standoffish stance was likely a wake-up call to Iran’s leadership about the limits of its alliance with President Vladimir Putin, which analysts said are still being seen today.

“There is absolutely no sense that Russia can offer to save the Iranian regime. It’s too late and I’m not even sure there was an opportunity to support the regime domestically since the Iranian people rose up,” Bilal Saab, associate fellow in Chatham House’s Middle East and North Africa program, told CNBC on Tuesday.

“The idea that Russia would support Iran or provide significant military spending to keep it in power is highly unlikely,” Hess said.

“Russia puts its own interests first and, at least under Vladimir Putin, doesn’t really believe in alliances, only in ways to project power.”

According to Bikalsky, this is what the Kremlin plans to do in the event of regime change in Iran.

“Russia will seek to re-engage with whoever succeeds the Islamic Republic, and it will and will seek to ensure that its interests are shared by whatever new government comes into power,” he said, adding that the alternative would be for Russia to be “completely kicked out of the Middle East.”

That scenario would be highly undesirable for Russia, he said.

“Although it does not have the ability to project power militarily or have very strong trade relationships at this time, it still wants to be seen as a partner in the region and does not want to voluntarily cede all of its influence to the United States.”