Early today, the United States and Israel launched an offensive against Iran, hitting targets across the country. US President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu made it clear in a televised address that they are seeking regime change rather than military pressure to secure a deal.
The attack and Iran’s swift response highlight how unstable diplomacy has become. The outbreak of war follows the mediator’s announcement of a major “breakthrough” in negotiations, which are set to resume next week. Obviously, diplomacy was never meant to be successful, and was simply used to hide war plans.
The timing of the attack makes it clear that Washington and Tel Aviv had already made up their minds weeks in advance. Israeli media reported that the operation was coordinated with Washington ahead of the holiday of Purim, which commemorates the Biblical story of the Jewish people being saved from genocide in ancient Persia.
It is clear that both Mr. Trump and Mr. Netanyahu want to declare victory, but it is unclear whether they will actually achieve that goal.
Targeting Iranian leadership
Israel and the United States say they have focused on eliminating civilian and military leaders and installations. Perhaps there is hope that they can end the war quickly.
Israel claimed it had achieved a “very high degree of success” in eliminating Iran’s leadership, and said its targets included Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei and President Massoud Pezeshkian. Photos of the large-scale attack on Khamenei’s safe compound have already been released. Israeli media reported the killings of General Mohammad Pakpour, commander of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, Ali Shamkhani, advisor to the Supreme Leader, and Iranian Defense Minister Amir Nasirzadeh.
Israel is clearly trying to reassure its people that it has the ability to reach deep into Iran’s leadership.
However, Tehran has not yet confirmed that the leader has died. Iranian media claimed the safety of Ayatollah Khamenei and Pezeshikian, instead reporting an airstrike on a girls’ school in the city of Minab that killed at least 80 people.
Unlike last June’s 12-day war, when Iran’s retaliation was slow and measured, this time the Iranian military retaliated almost immediately. Ballistic missiles were fired not only at Israeli cities such as Haifa, Tel Aviv and Eilat, but also at US military bases in Iraq, Qatar, Bahrain, the UAE and Saudi Arabia.
The speed of Iran’s retaliation indicates that it had anticipated such an attack and had prepared a retaliatory plan. The question now is whether Iran can withstand U.S. resolve in the face of domestic and international pressure.
dangers in the home
President Trump launched a war against Iran with little enthusiasm among Americans for a new foreign conflict. A recent poll by YouGov and The Economist found that only 27 percent of Americans support the United States using military force against Iran. In another survey conducted by the University of Maryland, support was even lower at 21%.
This war has significant domestic political implications for Trump. As the operation progresses, if Iran fails to surrender, the U.S. president will be caught between being dragged into a protracted quagmire by escalating the conflict, or being seen as weak if he withdraws.
As the midterm elections approach, the war will become a litmus test for Trump’s presidency. If the conflict does not proceed as planned by the president, it could have a negative impact on the Republican Party in public opinion polls. If Republicans lose control of Congress to Democrats, President Trump will be unable to pursue his political agenda. If Democrats take control of Congress, there could be more pressure to impeach Trump.
What is victory?
No analyst believes this war will be short-lived. Unlike the 12-day war that ended in a cease-fire, this conflict has already taken on a more widespread and serious appearance. Iran’s readiness to retaliate across the region suggests that it is willing to wage a long war rather than compromise.
One of the issues facing Washington and Tel Aviv is how to maintain pressure on Tehran without causing uncontrollable instability in the region. Another problem they have is that their ultimate goal is regime change.
In the speech announcing the attack on Iran, the US president appeared to indicate that the US military would stick to air operations and not deploy troops on the ground. He appeared to place responsibility for overthrowing the Iranian government in the hands of the Iranian people, saying “the time for freedom is at hand” and calling for a revolt.
The call comes two months after Iran witnessed unprecedented mass protests across the country. However, Iranian authorities launched a brutal crackdown, killing thousands. At this point, a similar wave of large-scale protests seems unlikely. Although the legacy of repression weighs heavily on society, Iran appears to be resilient.
Meanwhile, leadership “decapitation” attacks by the United States and Israel are likely to continue, but even if successful, they will not result in regime change.
Ultimately, President Trump’s generals may reflect on the lessons of the 12-day war and advise that prolonged conflict is unsustainable. For Trump, a no-win war will invite the familiar exit strategy of declaring victory on Truth Social and changing the narrative.
In that case, the issue will be how to negotiate a ceasefire. Iran, twice fooled by the smokescreen of negotiations, could take advantage of this double betrayal to harden its position. If the administration survives, it could take advantage of U.S. desperation for renegotiation to extract concessions. In that sense, today’s diplomatic breakdown may serve as a stepping stone for Iran to negotiate from a strong position tomorrow.
The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect the editorial stance of Al Jazeera.
