Two weeks before President Donald Trump is scheduled to resolve a major dispute between the United States and China in Beijing, he has set new terms for negotiations to help reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
China has little incentive to concede to his demands.
By shutting down key shipping routes, Iran has effectively cut off a fifth of the world’s oil supplies, raising fears of soaring prices and energy shortages that could upend the global economy. Currently facing the worst oil crisis in history, President Trump has called on other countries, including France, Japan, South Korea and the United Kingdom, to help secure the strait.
President Trump is applying further pressure to persuade China. In an interview with Sunday’s Financial Times, he said he wanted to know whether China would provide support before a summit with Chinese leader Xi Jinping scheduled for later this month. He added that if there is no answer, Trump may postpone the visit.
President Trump told the FT: “It’s only natural that the people who are the beneficiaries of the Straits work together to prevent bad things from happening in the Straits.” “I think China should also help.”
At first glance, the request seems unusual. President Trump is urging China to risk its military assets in a war the United States has launched against Beijing’s allies, threatening to withhold diplomacy if it does not.
However, China is in a better position than other Asian countries to withstand a prolonged energy crisis. Over the past few years, the Chinese government has sought to protect itself from such oil shocks by increasing oil reserves, diversifying imports and investing billions of dollars in clean energy such as wind, solar and electric vehicles.
CNN also reported that Iran is considering allowing some tankers to pass through the strait if their oil is traded in Chinese yuan.
“The Chinese may say, ‘Okay, let’s wait,'” said Bart Hoffman, a professor at the Institute of East Asian Studies at the National University of Singapore. “Given that they are fairly secure strategically, there will be some room for maneuver.”
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The war, which both U.S. and Israeli officials say will last several weeks, has cast a shadow over the Beijing summit first announced by President Donald Trump, who is grappling with a domestic backlash from soaring fuel prices amid escalating attacks on Iranian energy infrastructure.
Within China, news of the conflict is conveyed with an air of schadenfreude.
“Trump is lonely all over the world these days. No one really supports him,” said Henry Huiyao Wang, director of the Beijing-based research group Center on China and Globalization. “He’s really messed up the world with the Iran war, and he’s in a pretty tight spot.”
Commentary in Chinese state media on Sunday called for increased cooperation between the US and China in the face of global uncertainty, while nationalist tabloid Global Times condemned the idea of sending warships to the Strait of Hormuz.
“Is this really about ‘sharing responsibility’ or sharing the risk of a war that Washington starts and cannot finish?” wrote an anonymous editorial author.
At a press conference on Monday, Foreign Ministry Spokesman Lam Jian did not commit to President Trump’s appeal, but reiterated the importance of future talks.
“Head of state diplomacy plays an essential role in providing strategic guidance to China-US relations. The two countries continue to communicate regarding President Trump’s visit to China,” Lin said.
Trump’s proposal to postpone his visit comes as U.S. and Chinese economic officials have held several rounds of talks in Paris about a potential trade deal on agriculture and critical minerals, Reuters reported.
His influence in negotiations with China suffered a major blow earlier this year when the Supreme Court ruled that he overstepped his authority by unilaterally imposing tariffs on all trading partners. The administration is currently considering other mechanisms to impose similar tariffs.
“The United States needs China more than China needs the United States,” Wang said.
President Trump warned NATO of a “very bad” future if member states do not heed his call to send warships. Other US allies such as Japan and Australia have so far rejected this.
China, one of Iran’s most important strategic partners and the largest buyer of Iranian oil, has even less reason to side with Mr. Trump.
Chinese authorities condemned the attack on Iran and called for an immediate ceasefire. However, China has also criticized Iranian attacks on neighboring countries, including Saudi Arabia.
Although Beijing is unlikely to take action in the Strait of Hormuz, it has a vested interest in bringing stability to the wider region. Although China has been relatively insulated from the oil crisis, it is not immune to the growing impact on energy prices.
“It’s still going to be painful,” said Jia Ian Chong, an associate professor of political science at the National University of Singapore. “They want to keep the economy running smoothly.”
Beijing has also brokered an agreement between Iran and Saudi Arabia to restore diplomatic relations in 2023, positioning itself as a diplomatic leader in the Gulf and the Global South.
“The Middle East is ostensibly a region where the Chinese government has invested a lot of political capital,” Chong said. “They want to stabilize the situation and emphasize their role in the region, but what is happening now casts a shadow on that effort.”
