Spring is finally in full bloom, but some weather forecasters are already pushing hurricane season back by several months.
The Atlantic season, which runs from June to November, could deviate from the most active seasons of the past decade due to a surge in El Niño conditions, according to new predictions from Colorado State University hurricane researchers.
They claim it will be a slightly below-average season with 13 named storms: tropical storms and hurricanes. Six of these storms are expected to become hurricanes, and two are expected to strengthen to Category 3 or higher.
Since 2016, only one Atlantic hurricane season, in 2025, has ended with a below-average number of storms. Last year saw 13 named storms, including five hurricanes, the most notable of which was the Category 5 Melissa, which caused devastating damage to Jamaica. CSU’s initial forecast was higher than expected for 17 storms, as was the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s official forecast.
Finally, CSU experts said their initial predictions were that the 2023 season would be slightly below normal. But that year’s tropical activity, fueled by record-warm oceans, ended up being above normal, defying almost all early predictions.
There are pitfalls to predicting the future too far in advance, especially when it comes to global warming from fossil fuel pollution, but CSU isn’t looking at the magic 8 ball.
They rely on predictive models that have been fine-tuned over the years to make better predictions than seasonal averages alone.
Phil Klotzbach, CSU’s lead author and senior scientist on the forecast, said there are several other important signs, such as the impending return of El Niño, that are making forecasters slightly more confident than usual that there will be an overall decrease in tropical activity.
CSU’s forecasts point to El Niño as a “major driver” of the upcoming hurricane season.
At the end of this month, the La Niña phenomenon that had been ongoing since autumn turned into a so-called neutral situation. According to NOAA’s latest forecasts, El Niño is expected to develop later this spring and officially begin in mid-summer. This means that El Niño occurs during the peak hurricane season, which runs from mid-August to mid-October.
As a refresher: El Niño is a natural climate pattern characterized by higher than average water temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, which also leads to changes in upper atmospheric patterns. Together, these factors influence weather around the world.
El Niño and its associated cold La Niña weather events are closely monitored by forecasters because they affect the weather in a nearly consistent and predictable way, especially when the pattern is strong.
El Niño events typically increase wind shear (changes in wind speed and direction with height) in the upper atmosphere over parts of the Atlantic basin. A large amount of wind shear can knock out a storm’s rotation, weakening it, or even prevent it from forming in the first place.
Still, El Niño conditions do not guarantee a quiet hurricane season. These were being installed at the peak of the 2023 season, but extremely warm ocean temperatures acted like rocket fuel, allowing the system to develop and thrive despite increased wind shear.
The exact timing and strength of El Niño will ultimately determine how much of an impact its pattern will have on the season. There are early signs that El Niño could be very strong, but it’s still too early to say that for sure.
While El Niño suggests the possibility of a slightly below normal season, current ocean temperature trends are sending a more mixed message.
The western tropical Atlantic, the part of the ocean closest to the Caribbean Sea, will experience warmer-than-normal sea temperatures. These April temperatures typically “correlate well” with the “busy season” for hurricanes, according to CSU.
However, CSU said ocean temperatures are currently slightly colder than normal in parts of the central and eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean, which is typically considered a “quiet” hurricane season.
Sea surface temperatures rise from spring to summer, eventually reaching a peak around early September. Water is the fuel source for all tropical systems, so the timing of the warmest water is important.
Fossil fuel pollution, which causes global warming, is tipping toward warmer ocean temperatures that cause more dangerous storms.
Scientists say the unusually warm oceans will likely lead to more rapidly intensifying storms, like last year’s four hurricanes. Three of the four hurricanes, Erin, Humberto, and Melissa, eventually became Category 5 monsters due to this explosive intensification.
If sea temperatures are warmer than expected, the effects of El Niño could fade again, leaving the door open for a busy season.
“There’s still a lot that can change between now and the peak of the season,” Klotzbach warned.
