Taipei, Taiwan —
In the face of China’s increasing military aggression, Taiwan has increased defense spending, extended military conscription, and revamped combat training, demonstrating its determination to fight potential aggression.
Some of those involved, like 51-year-old Nelson Yeh, have other plans.
Three years ago, Ye opened a bank account in Singapore and decided to move one-fifth of his assets overseas. He then applied for Turkish citizenship and obtained backup passports for himself and his wife nine months later.
If Taiwan came under attack, he reasoned, he would have access to emergency funds and be able to travel freely using Turkish documents.
“It’s unlikely, but if it happens, the losses would be huge, so I think we should have a plan B,” said Ye, who works in finance in Taipei.
Currently, the United States is embroiled in an escalating conflict in the Middle East, and global uncertainty over its impact further undermines his confidence in the current world order, Ye said.
“We are witnessing a unilateral world beginning to collapse, and no great power can dictate the situation,” he said.
Taiwan has been grappling with the possibility of military conflict with China for decades. But the Chinese government, led by leader Xi Jinping, has asserted its sovereignty claims over the autonomous islands more firmly, launching live-fire drills and mock blockades to thwart “separatist forces.”
In preparation, some Taiwanese have begun learning skills such as first aid and marksmanship, and civil defense organizations are providing emergency response training. At the same time, immigration consultants said political uncertainty has led to an increase in inquiries about moving abroad.
“Basically my idea is that if you go abroad, you need money and a passport,” Yeh said. “Anything beyond that is out of my control.”
Mr. Ye said he got the idea to hold cash overseas from friends in Hong Kong, where tens of thousands of local residents voted with their feet and away from the financial hub, amid a widespread national security crackdown.
As the Chinese Communist Party tightened its grip on the former British colony, they feared that Taiwan might one day face the same fate. During Hong Kong’s pro-democracy protests in 2019, he often heard the slogan “Today is Hong Kong, tomorrow is Taiwan”.
Variations on the refrain “Today is Ukraine, tomorrow is Taiwan” were revived after Russia launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, underscoring the island’s vulnerability to a similar attack by China.
There is little indication that China intends imminent military action. President Xi has threatened to seize Taiwan by force if necessary, but such a step could prompt U.S. retaliation and lead to a costly conflict that would devastate global trade.
Nevertheless, Taiwanese President Lai Ching-de has proposed a $40 billion bill that includes one of the largest arms deals in history between the United States and Taiwan. The proposal faces local political opposition and protests from the Chinese government, so U.S. senators visited Taiwan this week to encourage lawmakers to reach a deal.
Edward Lai, a Taiwanese real estate agent working in Bangkok, said one of the reasons why more Taiwanese are buying property in Thailand is pessimism about politics at home and abroad. He said the company is hiring to deal with a flood of inquiries, 70% of whom are Taiwanese concerned about geopolitics.
“Right now, my Taiwanese friends often tell me that they have a very strong feeling that they are going to lose their country,” he says.
Kuo, a 67-year-old retiree, started buying property in Cambodia 10 years ago, first as an investment and then in preparation for a potential conflict with China. He requested that only his last name be used to speak openly about his political beliefs, but feared it could lead to a backlash.
Kuo believes the unification issue will inevitably be resolved during Xi’s term, but worries that as relations between China and Taiwan’s ruling Democratic Progressive Party deteriorate, Xi may choose a more aggressive approach, such as a blockade or invasion. Although he is the only member of his family with a Cambodian passport, he hopes to be able to obtain a temporary visa or apply for a passport to another country in advance if the others flee.
“As long as we can get out, we have time to observe the situation and wait for the result. No matter who wins or loses, if the winner has goodwill towards us, we will slowly find an opportunity to come back,” he said.
Looking at the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, defense analysts said one of the biggest takeaways for Taiwan is the importance of civilian resistance to the island’s security.
“This is not just a domestic issue; it has international implications,” said Charles Wu, an assistant professor of political science at the University of South Alabama. “If China sees that the Taiwanese are essentially giving up the will to fight, an invasion may be unnecessary. Maybe they will buy it off.”
Wu, who specializes in how public opinion influences military operations, said the fight-or-flight perception of Taiwanese people could have a major impact on China and the United States’ policy toward Taiwan.
“It’s important that when we go back to our colleagues in the Senate, we can say that they are carrying their weight. They are picking up the end of the stick and doing their part without relying too much on us in the United States,” Sen. John Curtis, one of the officials who traveled to Taiwan to show support for increased defense spending, told reporters in Taipei.
But determining what percentage of the population will stay and fight is complicated. There is little comprehensive data on the number of people obtaining secondary passports or opening bank accounts abroad. Opinions may also vary widely depending on polling methods and people’s confidence in Taiwan’s own defense capabilities and military aid from the United States.
The United States has a vested interest in Taiwan’s security as a geostrategic and democratically aligned partner against the rise of China. Under U.S. law, the United States is obligated to sell weapons to Taiwan for self-defense, but President Donald Trump has declined to say whether he would send military aid in the event of a Chinese attack, in line with long-standing U.S. policy. Trump and Xi are expected to discuss Taiwan when Trump visits Beijing in May.
An analysis led by Wu showed that since 2017, the percentage of people who say they intend to defend Taiwan has ranged from 15% to 80%. In a 2025 survey funded by Duke University, the questions were more open-ended: 37% said they would “go with the flow,” 17% said they supported the government’s decision, 11% said they would flee Taiwan, and 20% said they would resist or join the military.
In addition to extending compulsory military service from four months to one year, Taiwan’s government has worked to prepare the broader population for conflict. Taiwan established a committee to strengthen civil defense in 2024 and began issuing official guides on what to do in the event of a disaster and holding trainings.
Consultants said there is currently no sign of a large-scale population exodus, but Taiwanese want reassurance.
When Metropolitan Immigration Consulting Group opened in Taiwan 20 years ago, most of its clients wanted to immigrate to English-speaking countries, said general manager Kenny Chan. But over the past five years, more people are opting for citizenship through investments from countries such as Saint Lucia, Vanuatu and the United Arab Emirates.
“Before, immigration meant getting a green card from the U.S. or a Maple Leaf card from Canada,” Chen said. “Everyone’s goal with immigration right now is to diversify risk, diversify assets, and diversify identities.”
But Mark Lin, a manager at Ruby, another immigration consultancy, said that while consultations on geopolitical concerns had doubled in the past two years, leaving the country during conflict was not easy.
“People want to get a passport right away in case something happens,” he said. “But if something were to happen, we wouldn’t be able to get on a plane and travel, right? We’d need some kind of military assistance.”
Jessica Chan, an education consultant who helps students and their families research friendly visa policies, said some Taiwanese are considering Malaysia as a backup because of this concern.
“If a war broke out, the airport would be the first to be bombed, right? But in Malaysia, you can just get on a boat and get there,” she says.
Other options she is discussing with clients include Portugal and Malta. Still, most of her students aim to attend college in the United States, as long as they have a good chance of staying after graduation.
Cathy Chen, a 33-year-old Taiwanese data scientist, earned her master’s degree from the University of Southern California five years ago and has been looking for immigration opportunities ever since.
She doesn’t believe war will happen soon, but the prospect of a Chinese takeover has strengthened her resolve. Last year, she moved to San Francisco with her husband, also Taiwanese, whose company sponsored a work visa.
“I just want to avoid the risks of being Chinese,” said Chen, who applied for a green card this year. “That would be the worst case scenario for me.”
