Ecuadorian President Daniel Novoa has survived not one, not two, but three suspected assassination attempts for quite some time. The latest of these appears to have included gifts of jam and chocolate laced with toxic chemicals.
The president made the claim to CNN’s Fernando del Rincon on Thursday, saying the gift contained “very high concentrations” of the three chemicals and that “it would have been virtually impossible for them to exist together at that level” unless the gift had additives added to it.
The incident comes just weeks after another assassination attempt in which a crowd threw stones at Noboa’s car as he headed for duty in Cañar state. Energy Minister Ines Manzano said bullet holes were later found in his vehicle, but Novoa said another crowd had thrown petrol bombs and homemade rockets at his vehicle days earlier.
While some critics have been skeptical of the claim amid a lack of publicly available evidence, suggesting it may instead be intended to distract from the growing public discontent and protests against Novoa’s government, the president insisted to CNN that the threat is real.
“It wasn’t just sticks and stones. They also had homemade rockets, petrol bombs, projectiles that could kill people, and they threw rocks from the air at the windshields and bonnets of cars,” Novoa said.
“If these homemade rockets hit you in the chest or head, you die.”
What is indisputable is that the Ecuadorian president has no shortage of enemies.
Noboa, 37, the heir to a banana empire and one of Ecuador’s biggest fortunes, was elected to his first full term this year on a promise to crush the “narco-terrorists” who have turned the country from a beacon of peace to home to one of the highest murder rates in Latin America.
Since then, he has embraced a strongman approach and tough-on-crime policies that made him extremely popular with voters in his first term and exposed him to powerful criminal groups.
But criminal networks aren’t the only ones working against Noboa. Novoa’s once impressive approval ratings are seeing a decline as murder rates rise again and discontent over economic issues such as diesel prices mounts. As of February 2024, 81% of Ecuadorians supported him, according to local pollster Sedatos. This number has since decreased to around 50%.
Laura Lizarazo, Ecuador’s chief analyst at consulting firm Control Risks, said the president still enjoys considerable support in a country where he tends to be “very unpopular,” but he faces growing backlash from indigenous groups and civil society advocates over Novoa’s unilateral decisions and attempts to consolidate executive power.
Particularly unpopular among Ecuador’s indigenous peoples is the cancellation of diesel subsidies, a measure that has sparked widespread demonstrations, but critics have also criticized the decision to incorporate Ecuador’s environmental watchdog into the Ministry of Mines, which they fear would weaken regulations, and the judiciary, which has ruled to invalidate several security measures, including blanket immunity for law enforcement.
“He has made very polarizing policy decisions that are not well received by the public, and this wave of protests (over diesel subsidies) is a perfect example of that,” Lizaraso said.
During the protests, Novoa declared a state of emergency in many states. The movement subsided after Novoa threatened to send in the military to break through the demonstrators’ roadblocks. The president then agreed to cut diesel prices in two waves, in December and February.
Meanwhile, there are even signs of tension regarding the “tough on crime” message that once made Novoa so popular.
Violence in Ecuador has recently taken a dramatic turn. After a brief respite last year, murders rose 40% in the first seven months of 2025, and last week a car bomb explosion rocked Guayaquil, killing one person. And in September, two prison massacres occurred in succession.
All this happened despite Noboa’s extensive deployment of army troops to Ecuador’s prisons and cities, and the arrest of most wanted criminals over the summer.
In an interview with CNN, Novoa acknowledged that homicide statistics have worsened, but countered by arguing that a larger proportion of homicides are the result of violence between criminals.
“The numbers are similar to 2023. The difference is that in 2023, six out of 10 (deaths) had a criminal record. Now, nine out of 10 people who die have a criminal record. They are killing each other,” Novoa said.
Some critics question whether Mr. Novoa’s hardline stance is making matters worse.
John Paul Pinto, a political analyst based in Quito, Ecuador, said Novoa “believes that the best solution to fighting drugs is to use the military.” “And what we’re seeing here in Ecuador is that that’s the wrong strategy. It’s a very bad strategy. It’s not working.”
“Security is not just an issue for the military, police and intelligence agencies,” Pinto said. “Security is about (solving) economic problems, social problems, and private sector participation.”
Prime Minister Noboa’s plan to amend Ecuador’s constitution to allow foreign forces to occupy Ecuadorian bases has also been controversial, and will be subject to a referendum next month.
Mr. Noboa seems so confident that voters agree with him that his government is even developing plans to build a U.S. naval base on the Ecuadorian coast.
Meanwhile, even as other countries in the region voiced concern about US attacks on suspected drug traffickers in the Caribbean and Pacific, Ecuador took to social media this week to spontaneously give a thumbs up to US President Donald Trump, declaring that “Ecuador stands firm in the global fight against drug trafficking.”
Novoa told CNN that he supports the fight against drug trafficking, which “affects the whole society,” and that Ecuador has already submitted a formal request to conduct joint operations with the U.S. military.
Mr Lizarazo said the recent wave of violence in Ecuador was unlikely to change Mr Noboa’s hardline approach, but rather to redouble it.
“For the Noboa administration, these events do not indicate a failure of its security strategy, but rather an argument for pursuing more aggressive measures against organized criminal groups,” Lizarazo said. “It is the key to government identity, security discourse, strongman image, and hardline policies.”
Analysts say Novoa’s image has long been key to his power. He is young, social media savvy, and keen to participate in spectacle politics.
“He is a kind of unconventional leader for Ecuador, whose popularity and governance strategy is based on his image and rhetoric rather than a clear, evidence-based, and comprehensive national strategy to address the key issues of several crises facing the country,” Lizarazo said.
Pinto pointed to Novoa’s battle with the country’s Constitutional Court over security measures earlier this year.
Noboa personally marched through the streets of Quito after a court suspended some of Noboa’s security policies, including immunity for law enforcement. Billboards along the parade route carried pictures of judges with the message written in red letters over their faces: “These are the judges who are stealing our peace.”
“We will not allow change to be halted because of nine faceless people,” Novoa told demonstrators in a speech the next day.
Critics have warned that the move could put judges at risk, but it is not the first time he has shown a disregard for institutional norms.
Lizarazo pointed to how he triggered a diplomatic crisis in April 2024 by ordering security forces to storm the Mexican embassy to arrest a former vice president wanted on corruption charges who had sought political asylum.
“He has clear authoritarian traits and tendencies that are very likely to continue for the remainder of his administration,” Lizaraso predicted. “He will continue to test the institutional limits of executive power, and he will continue to seek to expand executive power to implement the hard-line security policies he is known for.”
Regarding the referendum, Lizarazo said: “It’s a polarizing issue, but Novoa has the state apparatus and communication platforms in his favor.”
Noboa told CNN that he will respect the referendum’s outcome no matter what it turns out to be, but he is confident that Ecuador sees things the same way he does.
“I believe people want real change,” Novoa said.
