Iran has been preparing for war with the United States for nearly half a century. Unable to match U.S. military might, the Iranian government is instead focused on ways to impose large costs that could shake up the Middle East and the global economy.
Despite ongoing negotiations with Iran, the US military is significantly increasing its air and naval assets in the Middle East. US President Donald Trump has hinted at a regime change and warned that he could attack Iran, fueling fears of an escalation of war.
Experts say that despite being greatly weakened by last summer’s Israeli and American attacks and with recent heightened domestic unrest, the Iranian regime remains open to a wide range of options for retaliation, from targeting American interests and Israel to mobilizing allied groups and pursuing economic disruption that could cause global chaos.
How the Iranian government uses the tools at its disposal will depend on the level of threat it perceives it faces.
“The regime has a number of capabilities it can use if it views this as an existential war,” said Farzin Nadimi, a senior fellow at the Washington Institute who specializes in Iranian security and defense issues. “If they see this as the final war, they may give up everything they have.”
In the event of an attack against Iran, Iran’s options are:
missiles and drones
Iran appears to have thousands of missiles and drones within range of U.S. forces based in many countries in the Middle East, and has threatened to attack U.S. forces as well as Israel.
After Israel launched a surprise attack on Iran in June, the Islamic Republic retaliated by firing a flurry of ballistic missiles and drones at Israel, bypassing and damaging Israel’s sophisticated air defenses.
Iranian officials maintain that many of the stockpiles used in that war have been replenished, and U.S. officials believe these war-tested weapons and aging Russian and U.S. fighter jets remain a threat.
For example, Iran’s Shahid suicide drone proved to be a tool of destruction in Russia’s war in Ukraine. The Iranian regime has also developed, tested, and deployed more than 20 types of ballistic missiles, including short, medium, and long-range systems that can threaten targets as far as southern Europe.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio said last month that there are “30,000 to 40,000 U.S. troops stationed in eight to nine facilities in the region.” “They are all within range of thousands of Iranian one-way UAVs (drones) and Iranian (short-range) ballistic missiles that threaten the presence of our military.”
Two U.S. officials told CNN that even though Tehran’s military forces are far larger in numbers and far older than modern U.S. systems, it would be much more difficult for the U.S. to launch a decisive attack on the country.
The Iranian government has repeatedly warned US allies in the region that it would retaliate if attacked. When U.S. bombers attacked Iranian nuclear facilities in the summer, Iran launched an unprecedented missile attack on Qatar, targeting al-Udeid Air Base, the largest U.S. military facility in the Middle East.
Over the past two years, Israel has attacked Iran’s regional proxy networks and significantly curbed the Iranian regime’s ability to project power beyond its borders.
Still, the agents vowed to protect the Islamic Republic. Iraqi groups such as Kataeb Hezbollah and Harakat al-Nujaba (militia groups that have targeted U.S. forces in the past) and Lebanese Hezbollah have said they would support Iran if attacked.
Last month, Abu Hussein al-Hamidawi, commander of Katab Hezbollah, called on “Iranian supporters around the world to prepare for all-out war in support of the Islamic Republic.”
Despite the threat, Iranian proxies face constraints. In Lebanon, the once-formidable Hezbollah has weakened significantly after a 13-month conflict with Israel and is now facing a domestic disarmament movement. Iran-backed militias are powerful in Iraq, but they also face obstacles from the central government, which is increasing pressure from the United States to curb Iranian influence.
Yemen’s Houthis are targeted by both Israel and the United States, but they are one of Iran’s most destructive proxies and have shown a willingness to protect their patrons. In late January, the Houthis released a video showing an image of a ship engulfed in flames with the simple caption: “Coming soon.”
In the past few years, with support from Iran, the group has attacked Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Israel, as well as American ships in the Red Sea.
Iran has repeatedly warned that a war with Iran would not only shock the Middle East but the rest of the world. Although militarily inferior, Iran leverages its ability to disrupt energy markets and global trade from one of the world’s most strategically sensitive regions.
Iran, one of the world’s largest energy producers, borders the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway through which more than a fifth of the world’s oil and most of its liquefied natural gas flows. The regime has threatened to shut down if attacked, and experts warn that this could send fuel prices soaring far beyond Iran’s borders and trigger a global economic downturn.
Experts say targeting the global economy through the strait may be one of Iran’s most effective options. It is also the most dangerous because it has far-reaching effects.
Umud Shokri, a Washington, D.C.-based energy strategist and senior visiting fellow at George Mason University, said a prolonged closure of the strait would be a “dangerous scenario.” “Even a partial disruption could cause prices to soar, disrupt supply chains and amplify inflation around the world. In such a scenario, a global recession would be a real risk.”
Such a move would likely be a last resort for Iran. Because it would seriously disrupt trade between their countries and their Arab neighbors, many of whom have lobbied President Trump against an attack on Iran and pledged not to allow the United States to enter their territory because of an attack on Iran.
Iran says it has naval bases deep beneath its coast and is ready to deploy dozens of fast attack craft to Persian Gulf waters. The military has spent three decades building its own ships and submarines, ramping up production over the past few years in preparation for possible naval warfare.
Retired Vice Adm. Robert Harward, a former U.S. Navy SEAL and deputy commander of U.S. Central Command, said Iran’s naval capabilities and proxies present a challenge to shipping in the Strait of Hormuz that “can be met very quickly.” But “asymmetric” tools such as mines, drones and other tactics could pose challenges for shipping and oil flows, he said.
Iran’s ability to disrupt global shipping and shock the global economy has historical precedent.
Towards the end of its long war with Iraq in the 1980s, Iran laid mines in the Persian Gulf, including near the Straits, and one of the mines nearly sank the USS Samuel B. Roberts while escorting a Kuwaiti oil tanker in 1988 in what became known as the “Tanker War.”
In 2019, several oil tankers collided in the Gulf of Oman amid heightened tensions between Iran and Gulf Arab states following President Trump’s withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal. It was widely believed that Iran was involved.
More recently, during the Israel-Hamas war, the Houthis intercepted commercial ships in the Bab al-Mandab Strait in the Red Sea, through which about 10% of the world’s maritime trade passes. Combined with Iran’s ability to threaten traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, Tehran wields enormous power to inflict global economic pain.
“The next war may start not in the heart of Tehran, but in the Strait of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf,” said Nadimi of the Washington Institute.
