protest. control. repeat. It has become a familiar cycle for Iranians.
Political disillusionment with a system that has proven unwilling or unable to reform, and economic stagnation exacerbated by the triple whammy of chronic misgovernment, deep corruption and crippling sanctions, have sparked repeated waves of nationwide protests in recent years.
These uprisings often last several days and sometimes result in significant changes in society, such as the 2022 protests sparked by the death of Martha Amini, who was detained by religious police. However, this pattern is well known. People take to the streets, a violent crackdown ensues, and demonstrators are eventually forced back into their homes, awaiting another round of clashes.
On Friday, Iran’s 86-year-old Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei, who has been in power for 35 years, addressed the recent unrest and acknowledged that economic dissatisfaction was at the heart of the public’s anger. But he quickly reverted to his old ways, drawing a clear line between what he called legitimate protests and rioting “mercenaries” and warning of harsh responses.
But the administration’s old strategy may no longer be enough to contain this latest wave. Times have changed.
First, these are the first protests since the summer’s 12-day war between Iran and Israel, which ultimately drew the United States in and ended with significant damage to Iran’s nuclear facilities. The war weakened Iran’s deterrence and exposed the weakness of its regime. After the war, many Iranians hoped that the situation would change and that the government would use nationalist rallies around the national flag to introduce a more sustainable social contract with its people. But that did not happen, dissent was suppressed, the gulf between the government and its subjects widened and things returned to normal.
And there is a growing movement on social media and on Iranian streets of exiled opposition leaders who model themselves after Reza Pahlavi, the son of the ousted Iranian monarch. Although he has appeared on the scene before, there has been a visible increase in chants in support of him on the streets, and a concerted effort by US far-right activist Laura Loomer to position him as Washington’s choice.
On Thursday, scores of protesters took to the streets in Tehran and many other cities, chanting “This is the last fight. Pahlavi will return” and “Long live the Shah.”
The crown prince, as his supporters are known, called on demonstrators to take to the streets on Friday, thanking them for their courage and asking them to keep up the momentum.
It remains unclear whether Reza Pahlavi can maintain his influence. Although the movement has not yet reached the scale of the 2022 protests or the 2009 Green Movement, its chants evoking the overthrown monarchy and clear calls to challenge the regime clearly signal a shift beyond purely economic protests.
Another determining factor may be the current occupant of the White House. President Donald Trump has warned Iran against violent repression, a remark that Iranian leaders have dismissed as interference in their internal affairs. However, given recent events in Venezuela, there is no doubt that Iranian leaders are concerned about how a president, clearly uninterested in playing by the traditional rules of international affairs, will react if the Iranian government returns to its tried-and-true methods of crushing dissent.
For millions of Iranians at home and abroad, this is another tumultuous episode in the country’s recent history, and a familiar old face is slow to change. But with new geopolitical dynamics at play, the outcome could be unpredictable.
