A major pattern shift is about to take place in the United States, as arctic air blows in and brings millions of people their first taste of winter.
It all starts this weekend when a cold front begins to spread December-like air from near the North Pole across the northern United States. This front will move further south and east over the weekend, potentially bringing temperatures 10 to 15 degrees below average across most of the region east of the Rocky Mountains by Sunday night.
If this winter-like situation continues, with the coldest temperatures of the season, it could reach as far south as the Gulf Coast early next week.
The brief pattern reversal could also turn on lake-effect snow machines for the first time this season, dumping measurable amounts of snow downwind of the Great Lakes.
Here’s how this cold changeup plays out.
Parts of the Northern Plains and the upper Midwest will enter the first phase, with temperatures plummeting starting Saturday. This drop in temperatures may also mean winter chills for some people.
High temperatures in Minneapolis on Friday will be in the mid to upper 40s, near normal, but will barely reach the upper 30s by Saturday. A mix of rain and snow is possible throughout Saturday. The city typically sees its first measurable snowfall (defined as at least 0.1 inch) by Nov. 3, and snowfall has not yet occurred and is not likely to occur before Saturday.
December-like cold air is expected to spread further across the country on Sunday.
Frigid conditions are expected to continue on this day, with temperatures dropping below 20 degrees in many areas of the central United States. Temperatures could drop 15 degrees below average in the Plains, much of the Midwest, and parts of the Ohio and Tennessee valleys.
Chicago’s high temperature on Sunday is expected to reach 40 degrees, which is 10 degrees below normal. St. Louis will also be 10 degrees colder than expected, with highs in the mid-40s.
For tens of millions of people east of the Rocky Mountains, Monday morning will be the coldest since spring. Freezing or colder temperatures (32 degrees) are possible as far south as Texas and as far east as the Appalachians.
Temperatures in Buffalo, New York, could drop into the 20s Monday morning and reach the low 30s by afternoon. The city’s typical high temperature in early November is around 50 degrees.
Monday will likely be the coldest day for much of the eastern two-thirds of the United States, but the Southeast will be the epicenter of the coldest-than-normal air.
High temperatures in Nashville, Tennessee, will be in the mid-40s on Monday as temperatures dip below freezing early in the morning. This high temperature is almost 20 degrees below normal, with 63 degrees being normal for Monday’s date.
Atlanta will also see a dramatic drop in temperatures on Monday. High temperatures in the city on Sunday are expected to be around 70 degrees, but temperatures on Monday will struggle to reach the 50s. Temperatures could drop to near freezing by Tuesday morning, potentially making Atlanta’s coldest morning since February.
Much of the east will remain quite cold on Tuesday. It will likely be the coldest day of the period for Washington, D.C. and New York City. High temperatures in both cities could be about 15 degrees below normal, with Washington DC in the mid-40s and New York City in the low 40s.
However, this cold wave will not last long. Temperatures will quickly return to near or above normal across much of the central United States on Tuesday, and most of the East will follow suit on Wednesday.
An explosion of the Arctic atmosphere could bring the first measurable snow of the year in some places, but exactly where and how much is still coming into focus.
The typical snow belt downwind of the Great Lakes has the best chance so far of accomplishing the feat late this weekend and into next week, with a lake effect possible after a cold front passes over the lakes on Sunday. Accumulating snow is possible in Indiana, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania and New York into Monday night.
The same storm that could bring severe weather to Minneapolis early this weekend could also develop into a storm that could quickly dump snow on the Midwest early next week. Although the chances seem less likely than lake effect snow, we still need to be careful over the next few days.
