JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon during the 2025 IIF Annual Membership Meeting in Washington, DC, October 16, 2025.
Samuel Corum | Bloomberg | Getty Images
JP Morgan Chase Chief Executive Jamie Dimon said Monday he was worried about the U.S. economy, citing soaring asset prices and a competitive environment in the banking industry reminiscent of before the 2008 financial crisis.
As economists tout that the Trump administration’s tax and deregulatory policies will boost economic growth this year, Dimon said in his annual investor update that he tends to think about what happens when expectations rise.
“My own view is that people are getting a little bit more comfortable that this is the reality, these high asset prices, these high trading volumes, that nothing is going to go wrong,” said Mr. Dimon, dressed in black and wearing a brace on one hand.
Mr. Dimon said the economic cycle will inevitably change, and a wave of borrower defaults will have a broader impact on lenders, and will also impact the industry in ways that many did not expect.
“There’s going to be a cycle at some point…I don’t know what the confluence of events is going to cause that cycle to happen, and that’s what’s increasing my anxiety,” Dimon said. “I’m not comforted by the fact that asset prices are high. In fact, I think it increases the risk.”
While concerns about how Anthropic and OpenAI’s artificial intelligence models could disrupt myriad industries, especially software companies, have roiled markets in recent weeks, the broader S&P 500 index is not far off its all-time high.
At the same time, concerns about lending to software companies coupled with concerns about AI have been plaguing private credit lenders since Blue Owl spooked markets last week by announcing it needed to sell assets to satisfy investors seeking to exit the fund.
This episode dragged down the stock prices of major alternative asset managers, including: apollo, KKR and black stoneThis led some market participants to wonder if a broader slump in credit had begun.
doing something “stupid”
“There are always surprises in the credit cycle,” Dimon said. “We are often surprised by which industries are most affected,” he said. “In 2008, 2009, we couldn’t predict what utilities and phone companies would do, but this time, thanks to AI, it might be software.”
Mr. Dimon also said he supported the lawmakers’ comments about private credit at the beginning of the investor event.
Troy Rohrbaugh, the firm’s co-head of commercial and investment banking, said he believes the problem is unlikely to be limited to private credit lenders, but rather is “more widespread.”
“Right now, we feel a little isolated for some situations, but things could easily change and we’re ready for that,” Rohrbaugh said.
In response to a question from veteran banking analyst Mike Mayo, Dimon said he felt the current environment was similar to the three years leading up to the 2008 financial crisis in that “everyone was making a lot of money, people were leveraging, and the sky was the limit.”
The head of JPMorgan said some financial companies were “doing stupid things” such as taking advantage of the interest income earned through loans and investment activities, but he did not name the companies.
“Everyone’s making money, and everyone’s great, you’re going to feel stupid…It feels really good,” Dimon said.
“And when I think about all the factors that are going on, I take a deep breath and say, ‘Be careful,'” Dimon added.
Mr. Dimon also addressed the issue of CEO succession at JPMorgan, which he built into the world’s largest bank by market capitalization during his 20-year tenure.
He has often given a specific deadline for how many years he has left as CEO, but on Monday he declined to give a specific deadline.
“I was asked to be specific about this,” Dimon said, drawing laughs from analysts in attendance. “I’ll be here for a few years as CEO, and then maybe a few years as executive chairman.”
