Daniel Farke says no one at Leeds United is panicking after losing four of five games and the club are in the same situation for now. But the German faces a relentless match that could test his patience.
Despite growing dissatisfaction among supporters, Leeds currently have no plans to change their head coach and after picking up 11 points from 11 Premier League games, the club and Farke feel the team is now on track to achieve its survival goal.
Leeds, who sit one point above the relegation zone, have the toughest schedule in the Premier League over their next five games, with visits to Elland Road from Aston Villa, Chelsea and Liverpool, as well as trips to Manchester City and Brentford.
“In my dream version, we are never in danger,” Farke said after Sunday’s 3-1 defeat at Nottingham Forest. “Yes, it’s a little cramped now, but nothing. In any case, we are not panicking.
“We can’t influence that much what the outside world is thinking or trying to think. We’re very calm. We know what we have to improve on.”
Sunday, November 23rd, 1:00 p.m.
Kickoff at 2pm
To the surprise of some fans, it has been business as usual at Thorpe Arch during his international break with Falke scheduled to give a broadcast interview next week, the strongest indication that he will be in charge, at least for the start of this tough battle.
There is optimism within the company that Elland Road factors will work in Leeds’ favor against these tougher opponents. That is certainly borne out to some extent by the result at home, with Falke’s side picking up eight of their 11 points in Yorkshire.
But the next three teams, Aston Villa, Chelsea and Liverpool, are arguably three of the best sides to face at Elland Road this season, and a win against either of them would comfortably surpass Everton’s biggest win of the season.
Leeds showed what they can do against top teams at Elland Road when the crowds were in their favour, with a 2-2 draw at Bournemouth and a 2-1 defeat at Tottenham. Some would argue that Leeds deserved three points in both games.
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Watch for free: Premier League match highlights between Nottingham Forest and Leeds
These results came at a time when Leeds were playing well and it was doubtful whether a good performance would ultimately yield points. The atmosphere soured due to subsequent poor performances and results.
The big problem for Falke is that the level of confidence shown in both of these matches feels very far away at the moment, and the Leeds players understand that even though they were performing towards their best, they weren’t good enough for this fixture.
The lack of offensive threat up front didn’t help. Despite being eighth in the Premier League for big chances created and shots taken, Leeds have the second-lowest conversion rate and goal return.
Leeds have spent the summer strengthening their defense and midfield, knowing goals may be hard to come by, and despite being one of only three teams in the league to take fewer shots, they have the highest opposition shot conversion rate. Not ideal.
Another ominous statistic for Falke ahead of this difficult fixture is that November and December are the months that saw the most departures of managers in the Premier League era.
And that momentum shows no signs of slowing down any time soon, with visits from Crystal Palace and Manchester United leading to trips to Sunderland and Liverpool being booked after the next five games. Leeds also have the toughest schedule for their next nine games.
Right now, it’s hard to see any light at the end of the tunnel.
‘Inevitable’ – Sherwood’s verdict on Farke at Leeds
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Tim Sherwood is concerned about Daniel Farke’s future at Leeds ahead of tough competition
Former Tottenham and Aston Villa manager Tim Sherwood told Sky Sports FC this week that he expects Leeds to make changes in the dugout.
“I hope (Falke’s loss) doesn’t happen, but it’s inevitable, because I don’t think they can win the next four games,” Sherwood said. “Listen, if Leeds want to react, they will react after the game.
“Who are they going to bring in? They’re not going to come in with a magic wand and suddenly make the equipment look a lot easier.”
Sherwood added: “He’s feeling the pressure and Daniel will always be under pressure because everyone points out that he’s lifted Norwich up twice and relegated them twice.”
“There was a yo-yo there. But I would say it’s not necessarily his fault. Maybe the tools he had to use in the Championship (at Norwich) were very good, but they didn’t spend enough money when they got to the Premier League.”
“With Leeds it’s a little bit different because I think they gave him the money. I don’t know what they did with that money enough. Still, I think they would go again if they could in the PSR in January and they would need to do that.”
Does Falke’s Premier League results matter?
Rightly or wrongly, Farke has been under intense external scrutiny since it was reported in April that Leeds were considering sacking him due to concerns about his performance in the Premier League, shortly after winning promotion.
Of course, that never materialized and Farke was subsequently backed with a sum of £100 million in the summer transfer window, clearly demonstrating the faith he had in the decision-makers at Elland Road.
The Leeds manager changed his set-up for his return to the Premier League, taking a more pragmatic approach at the start of the season, suggesting he has learned from experience.
However, the story of Falke’s previous two failed attempts to keep Norwich is back in the spotlight after back-to-back defeats at Brighton and Nottingham Forest.
In 49 games with Norwich in the top flight, Falke had a win rate of just 12.2 per cent and a return of 0.5 points per game.
Norwich were relegated at the bottom of the table in his first attempt, and Falke lasted just 11 games in his second attempt, scoring just five points before being sacked again by the Canaries in 20th place.
Falke has already shown great improvement in his short time in the top flight with Leeds, picking up half of his total wins with Norwich in 38 fewer games. The only question is whether it’s enough given how low the bar has been set.
Will the January transfer window bring hope?
Indeed, if Farke survives these games, he will head into the January transfer window, where Leeds face potential restrictions on signing players.
Leeds will need to keep PSR in mind if they do business in January. Managing director Robbie Evans said after the summer: “We are maximizing our PSR this season.” If a more expensive target like Igor Paixao had arrived, other players would have had to be sold as well.
Unless there is a change to the club’s PSR position by the deadline, a loan deal is Leeds’ most likely means of strengthening in January.
Leeds had hoped to sign a wide forward who could also play as a number 10, but failed to sign Harry Wilson from Fulham on deadline day and the club are understood to be monitoring potential options in that area of the pitch.
