While planning the ongoing operation, the Pentagon and National Security Council significantly underestimated Iran’s willingness to close the Strait of Hormuz in response to a U.S. attack, according to multiple sources.
President Donald Trump’s national security team has failed to fully explain the potential consequences of what some officials have described as the worst-case scenario currently facing the administration, officials said.
Officials said some of the official pre-operation planning meetings were attended by key officials from the Departments of Energy and Treasury, but agency analysis and forecasting, an integral part of past administrations’ decision-making processes, took a backseat.
Officials acknowledged that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Energy Secretary Chris Wright were central figures throughout the planning and execution stages of the dispute. But President Trump’s preference for relying on close ties among his aides in national security decision-making has had the effect of sidelining interagency discussions about the potential economic consequences if Iran responds to a U.S. and Israeli attack with a strait blockade.
And government efforts to ease the deepening economic fallout may take weeks to take hold, officials said Thursday, including maritime escorts of high-risk oil tankers through the strait, which the Pentagon considers too dangerous for now. Meanwhile, the president continued to downplay the turmoil in the energy market.
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