McLaren’s Qatar GP strategy gamble and title race at the Abu Dhabi final race analyzed by Sky Sports F1’s Martin Brundle F1 News

In June of this year, we celebrated the release of the movie F1 in New York’s Times Square, but I don’t know if any script can match what’s happening in real life.

For McLaren, the double disqualification in Las Vegas where the underfloor was measured by the thickness of worn paper compared to the technical regulations has been a horror movie for the last two races, but there is no gray area in this kind of thing and it was illegal.

A week later in Qatar, the recovery could not have been more dramatic. This smooth, fast track forces drivers to stay flat for 70% of the lap, subjecting the car to enormous speeds and aerodynamic loads, especially turns 12 to 15, which put a lot of stress on the tires. Tire failures have occurred on this course before.

Pirelli is the sole tire supplier and has a duty to look after the safety of everyone involved, but it is also guaranteed to win every race and championship, so the last thing a tire supplier wants is for their product to fail in a flashy and very public way.

Therefore, the minimum allowable tire pressures, which play a key role in structural integrity, were set very high on F1 cars at 29 psi front and 24.5 psi rear, but more importantly, the tires could not be used for more than 25 laps or there would be an effective 30-second penalty.

In a 57-lap race, this would be against the rules as the earliest pit stop for any driver would be on lap 7, leaving 2 x 25 laps until the end of the race.

McLaren pays big price for gambling

All we heard before the race was that the two important laps would stop at laps 7 and 32. Nico Hulkenberg and Pierre Gasly had serious contact on the exit of Turn 1, leaving Hulkenberg stranded and, as you might expect, the safety car was brought out on lap seven.

This meant that the remaining cars could legally pit and complete the race, although the remaining two sets of tires would need to be stretched to the edge of the 25-lap limit. The problem was that so many cars were in the pit lane at the same time, and both cars from multiple teams were often very close together, making it very difficult to service the two cars from one pit stop location for each team and then feed them back to the fast lane and track safely within regulations.

McLaren’s strategists kept Oscar Piastri in the lead and Lando Norris in third, opting to remain flexible with tire selection rather than being tied to two 25-lap stints. This was a serious mistake. Few others would have done so, and Piastri already had a large enough lead that he could have easily pitted and exited in the lead without holding Norris back too long while waiting for service.

The safety car soon caught up with the leaders, and by the end of the next lap, Verstappen and the rest of the pack were back at the back of the McLaren, effectively making a free pit stop, which was worth a respectable 26 seconds on this layout.

McLaren bet on three things they had no control over and paid dearly. Firstly, others will do the same with stay-outs and Verstappen will have to negotiate traffic for a while on the restart, and secondly, the flexibility of the tires will benefit him later in the race, especially if the safety car is brought in, and in any case if he pits in the less crowded pit lane. Thirdly, they will likely put on much fresher, faster tires in the closing stages to usurp Verstappen, who struggles on his long-standing tires. I couldn’t play any of them.

Andrea Stella admitted that this was not a mistake or indecision, but rather a conscious decision, and one that was simply not fair to both drivers in terms of their championship chances. Even if Norris lost a little time and a few places at that point, pitting both would have corrected it anyway, but that’s the price of not being faster than Piastri that night.

The person I identify with the most is Piastri. He put in sublime performances all weekend, taking two pole positions with clearly the fastest combination on the track, winning easily in the sprint and being comfortably fastest in the main race. He managed to close the gap on Verstappen by 18 seconds out of the originally allotted 26 seconds, but was still eight seconds short of the flag.

Max makes the most of Norris’s lazy weekend

Max put in another great drive to make the most of his gift from McLaren, giving his all for this weekend’s championship showdown in Abu Dhabi.

Norris had a bad weekend at a track where things don’t always go well. He missed the final qualifying lap in both sessions due to track position, and further mistakes resulted in him remaining on the grid. From the less-used right side of the front row of the grid in the main race, the third-placed Verstappen was virtually guaranteed to beat Verstappen into turn one, which he did.

Norris made mistakes here and there, lacked the pace compared to Piastri, and judging from his radio calls, seemed at a loss as to how to solve it with his control. After the second pit stop it was certain that I would be behind Carlos Sainz and Kimi Antonelli on the road and I would have to overtake them as well.

Piastri overtook Antonelli’s Mercedes in the early stages of the race with a confidence and dedication that was completely reminiscent of the early season before six races in the wilderness by comparison.

But Norris couldn’t find a way out in the closing stages until Antonelli broke wide on the penultimate lap, giving him what could be a crucial fourth place by Sunday evening. Strangely, Red Bull publicly suggested this was intentional to get Norris to score more points, but were forced to officially backtrack.

I have no idea why Red Bull would think that Mercedes, who are fighting for second place in the constructors’ championship, would give points to McLaren, their dominant customer team, or any other team.

Sainz’s popular podium and a disastrous weekend for Ferrari

This left Carlos Sainz in the very popular final podium spot for him and his Williams team. As we have seen throughout his F1 career, when Sainz is given a golden opportunity, he grits his teeth, makes the most of it and never gives up. This was his second podium in seven races, which comes as no surprise since the team pitted him on lap seven and precisely placed him back in the fast lane amidst the heavy traffic.

This will be salt in the wound for Williams teammate Alex Albon. Albon had a frustrating time and the same seven races were meaningless.

Ferrari had a disastrous weekend, which team principal Fred Vasseur blamed on the aforementioned extremely high tire pressures. They lack rear grip and overall handling balance and currently sit in fourth place in the constructors’ championship behind McLaren, Mercedes and Red Bull.

Charles Leclerc looked like he was fighting the car corner by corner every lap to secure 8th place, while Lewis Hamilton was equally challenged and looked like he was having a lot of adventure for an anonymous 12th place. It’s a very difficult time for the Scuderia, especially for Lewis. If he’s going to add positive numbers to the stat sheet, we can now hope Ferrari do a great job with the big regulation changes for 2026.

Antonelli is just two points behind his Mercedes replacement Hamilton in the championship and, despite nine races in the wilderness, it would sum up Lewis’ year if the Italian teenager beats him to sixth in the championship.

Norris is still considered a favorite for the title.

On the grid, Max said he is very calm and doesn’t get nervous at all these days. After the race he told me he didn’t care about the championship. It’s just a mind game aimed at the McLaren boys. In a sit-down interview earlier this week, he said it was because he cared so much that he was penalized for a red mist clash with George Russell back at Barcelona, ​​costing him a decisive 11 points.

We know how Max is vocal with the team when things go wrong with the car, or with other drivers or on-track situations. He’s a winning machine wired that way and it’s because he really wants this championship and it’s going to be one of his best, if not the best ever.

Norris still has a 12-point advantage, has the best car on track and is driving for a team that has dominated this championship, so if everyone can stay calm, methodical and deliver an almost boringly standard Grand Prix, he should win.

There will be a certain amount of sadness on Sunday evening as two drivers who deserve a world championship this season will be missing out. May the best driver with the coolest head win. Don’t miss this final match.

M.B.

The 2025 F1 season concludes with the title-deciding Abu Dhabi Grand Prix, which will be broadcast live on Sky Sports F1 from Friday. Stream Sky Sports now – cancel anytime with no contract