After years of public criticism directed at Europe, US President Donald Trump has put together a National Security Strategy (NSS) that reflects his distorted perceptions. Still, it’s one thing to hear his on-stage rhetoric and another to see his worldview codified in official doctrine. Its central argument is that Europe will become “unrecognizable within 20 years” due to “civilizational erasure” unless the United States, which is “emotionally attached” to the continent, intervenes to restore it to its “former greatness.”
Trump is right, Europe has a problem. But those are not his claims.
Decades of underinvestment in human resources, persistent political incentives to ignore excluded communities, and a reluctance to confront how demographic and economic decline interact are being left unaddressed. Political leaders mostly avoid this conversation. Some people deny these problems, while others acknowledge them privately, publicly discussing the symptoms but not addressing the root causes.
Those living with these failures can find a clearer perspective. Across Europe, millions of working-class people are struggling to survive amid closed factories, underfunded schools, unaffordable housing, and broken public services. Among them, Rome makes the situation clearer. Their experience as Europe’s largest and most dispossessed ethnic minority reveals the continent’s choice to treat its entire population as collateral damage. As President Trump presses on Europe’s wounds, these communities see where they were hurt.
What President Trump is right about Europe
The NSS argues that Europe’s “lack of confidence” is most evident in its relations with Russia. Yes, Europe’s paralysis towards Moscow contrasts with its aggression towards weaker groups at home. This reflects a lack of trust in European values.
Mr. Trump is right. We are weak. If we are strong, we will uphold European values of democracy and pluralism. We don’t demonize minorities.
But we do. Roma communities across the continent face racist policies. In Slovenia, parliament passed a law in November to strengthen security in Roma areas after bar fights escalated into national hysteria.
In Portugal, Andre Ventura of the far-right Chega party put up posters reading “People must obey the law” as part of his presidential campaign. In Italy, far-right politician Matteo Salvini has built an entire political brand of anti-Roma paranoia. In Greece, police shot a young Romani man for a petty crime.
Leaders are over-securitizing the Roma while overcompensating for their wariness of Russia.
The NSS also highlights that Europe’s share of global gross domestic product has fallen from 25% in 1990 to 14% today. Regulation is a factor, as is population decline, but the deeper problem is Europe’s failure to invest in all its citizens.
The 12 million Roma people, Europe’s youngest population, remain excluded from education, employment and entrepreneurship by structural barriers and discrimination, despite research showing an overwhelming willingness to contribute to the societies in which they live and high success rates when running supported businesses.
If Roma unemployment in Romania, Slovakia and Bulgaria is currently 25 percentage points higher than that of the majority of the population, the combined GDP increase could be as much as 10 billion euros ($11.6 billion) if Roma employment were in line with the national average. In a continent that loses two million workers a year, leaving this potential workforce unused is an act of self-sabotage.
Mr. Trump is correct in pointing out that Europe’s share of GDP is declining. If Europe was serious, it would be hard to believe that it could leave Roma people on the scrap heap.
The NSS also warns of the “destruction of democratic processes”, and although he did not mention minorities, it is true that Europe is falling short. Proportionally, it should hold more than 400 seats, according to Rome Foundation estimates.
The European Parliament includes seats for Malta and Luxembourg, with populations of 570,000 and 680,000 respectively. However, seats for the Roman community are not included.
Mr. Trump is right that our country lacks democracy. But it’s not because of laws against hate speech or constitutional barriers to the far right. The most pressing budget deficit is the unrepresentation of 12 million Roma people.
A continent that squanders its population cannot be competitive, and a continent that suppresses a portion of its voters cannot claim to be representative. Political exclusion reduces turnout and registration rates, leading to systemic underrepresentation, while economic exclusion makes communities vulnerable to vote buying, coercion, and political capture.
What Europe Really Needs
Trump’s proposed solution to the European crisis will solve nothing. He seems to assume that far-right pseudo-sovereignists, who oppose immigrants and minorities alike, can reverse Europe’s decline.
Evidence suggests otherwise. Countries where xenophobia influences policy do not function well. In the United Kingdom, where the far-right campaign to leave the European Union was driven by concerns about immigration, experts estimate that GDP would be 6 to 8 percent lower than it would have been had the country not left the European Union. Hungary, where Viktor Orbán’s government has implemented various anti-immigration and discriminatory policies, has stagnated economic growth, has a large budget deficit and has frozen EU funds. Exclusion weakens economies and makes democracies fragile.
Empowering the ideological successors of the forces that once helped the United States defeat Europe will not help the continent recover. Indeed, the “recovery” of this radical right-wing ideology will only deepen Europe’s dependence on Washington and, in turn, on Moscow.
It is also true that Europe cannot survive global realpolitik by relying on liberal nostalgia, multilateral summits, or rhetorical promises.
What Europe needs is an inclusive realism, a recognition that investing in all people is not charity but a strategic necessity. The rise of China shows this. Decades of investments in health, education, and employment have expanded human capital, increased productivity, and reshaped the global balance of power.
Europe cannot afford to waste its demographic potential while hoping to remain an important player. The real choice is not between liberals and the far right, but between deepening the wounds by sidelining millions of people or beginning to heal the wounds by investing in people we have long treated as disposable.
The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect the editorial stance of Al Jazeera.
