The possibility of getting a tariff dividend check also appears to have been abandoned after the Supreme Court struck down most of President Donald Trump’s tariff policies last month, experts said.
“The tariff dividend was a surprise from the beginning,” Stephen Cates, a certified financial planner and financial analyst at Bankrate, told CNBC at the time. Cates said such a wide-ranging benefits program would require legislation passed by Congress, but “there doesn’t seem to be enough political support.” “The chances of this policy moving forward are now virtually zero.”
Then came the Tariff Refund for Working Families Act.
On Thursday, Sen. Martin Heinrich (D.M.) introduced a bill that would create a new tax rebate for people hit by higher prices on everyday goods due to President Trump’s reciprocal tariffs. If enacted as drafted, the rebate would provide a $1,200 payment to joint filers with annual incomes of less than $180,000, plus an additional $600 per dependent child starting in tax year 2026.
Tariffs are taxes levied on foreign imports and are paid by U.S. companies that import the items. Companies often absorb some of the costs and pass the rest on to consumers at higher prices.
A paper published last month by the New York Fed found that U.S. businesses and consumers would bear “the majority” of the economic burden of tariffs imposed in 2025, or about 90%. White House officials disputed the findings.
“This bill would restore money lost due to President Trump’s tariffs to the people who paid the price,” Heinrich said in a release announcing the bill.
A customer shops at a grocery store on March 11, 2026 in Miami, Florida.
Joe Radle | Getty Images
Although the Supreme Court did not rule on the possibility of tariff refunds, “absent new legislation, the law appears to be that the person who sent the tariff check, the importer, would receive a refund, even if they were not harmed,” said Thomas Phillipson, a professor of public policy studies at the University of Chicago and former acting chairman of the White House Council of Economic Advisers.
After the high court’s ruling, the White House invoked Section 122 of the 1974 Trade Act to enact the new tariffs, with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent saying that “tariff revenues in 2026 will remain substantially unchanged.”
Impact of tariffs on consumers
According to a recent analysis by Yale University’s Budget Institute, the price hikes caused by the tariffs, which are in effect until March 9, are expected to cost households an average of $450 to $570 in the short term. If Section 122 tariffs were made permanent, households would lose between $770 and $940. A minority member of the U.S. Congressional Joint Economic Committee estimates that if the tariffs continue for the rest of the year, they will cost households more than $2,500 in 2026.
“There is no way to completely reverse the economic impact of the tariffs enacted last year,” Bankrate’s Cates told CNBC in an email this week. He also said direct payments could cause higher inflation.
With oil prices rising and global trade facing uncertainty, Cates said: “Introducing new stimulus, even targeted at specific households, would be risky at a time of heightened inflationary pressures.”
affordability issues
Experts say Heinrich’s bill is part of an effort by Democrats to address affordability issues ahead of the 2026 midterm elections. The expansion of U.S. wars in the Middle East, along with soaring energy prices, will only exacerbate concerns about the cost of living.
Republicans have also floated the idea of providing direct payments to Americans ahead of the November midterm elections.
“Both parties want to claim credit for popular policies ahead of the midterm elections, but injecting additional money into the economy could also intensify the very price increases that the refunds are aimed at,” Kates said.
But because companies are unlikely to lower their prices to reflect the reversal of President Trump’s tariffs, “it might make some sense” for the government to issue refunds to households and businesses that are paying some of the burden, said Brett House, an economics professor at Columbia Business School.
Additionally, “both sides have proposed legislation to implement these refunds, so it should be possible to find bipartisan support for this,” the House said.
stimulus check ideas
The idea of a stimulus package funded by tariff revenue was first floated by the president in July. That summer, Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Missouri) introduced the American Worker Rebate Act of 2025. The Senate referred the bill to the Finance Committee, where it remains.
President Trump said rebate checks from the funds generated by the tariffs would be issued in late 2025.
In November, the president said in a post on Truth Social that “a dividend of at least $2,000 per person will be paid to everyone (except for high-income earners!).”
Late last year, Kevin Hassett, director of the National Economic Council, said, “The president will submit a proposal to Congress to make that happen.”
Asked about the tariff refunds in January, President Trump said the checks would arrive “toward the end of the year.”
Correction: This article has been corrected to reflect that the U.S. Congressional Joint Economic Committee (minority) has brought the estimated cost of the 2026 tariffs closer to $2,500 per household. A previous version incorrectly recognized the name of the organization that provided the estimate.
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