66 attempts. There is only one goal. With the threat of relegation looming, the team has problems to solve.
Nottingham Forest’s defeat to Brighton was another example of what could have happened. Manager Vitor Pereira got excited on the touchline several times as he watched his team thwart many chances to take something from the Amex.
The same story has been repeated in recent weeks. The points were withheld due to Forest’s poor finishing. However, was it simply a poor finish, or was it poor selection in front of the goal?
Needless to say, the 66 goal attempts in the last three games is the most in the Premier League over this period. Even leader Arsenal, who played extra time the other day, is not even close. Forest also has the highest xG at 4.54.
Of course, a lot of that is due to the fact that more than half of those shots came in one game. Forest made 35 attempts in the draw with Wolves without success. This is the second highest unpaid record in Premier League history. If even one were included, it would be enough for Forest to currently sit above Tottenham.
Nottingham Forest owner Evangelos Marinakis (right) was left holding his head in his hands after Forest failed to score against Wolves.
But when you dig deeper into the numbers, one thing becomes clear. Across three games, Forest have created just 47 chances. This means that nearly 30% of shots on goal are taken without being considered a ‘chance’.
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Free to watch: Highlights of Nottingham Forest’s Premier League defeat to Brighton
Out of 66 attempts, Elliott Anderson had 12 attempts and a total xG of just 0.43. This is just over 0.03 per effort. Gibbs White follows with 10 shots for a total xG of 0.82. Incredibly, in third place is defender Neco Williams with eight shots.
The two main strikers in these games, Igor Jesus and Lorenzo Lucca, had just six attempts combined. This shows that Forest are not focused on creating clear chances for their front man. It’s a case of quantity over quality. Especially when compared to what was produced last season.
Pin the forest to get back the wood
They have created 47 chances in their last three games, averaging 15.67 per game. This is a significant increase from his season average of 9.36 points and last season’s 8.79 points.
Chris Wood has been sidelined since October with a knee injury.
What are the obvious differences between then and now? Chris Wood was absent. The New Zealander’s 20 goals in the Premier League last season was impressive enough. On top of that, his xG of just 13.35 highlights just how clinical he was. Only Brian Mbeumo has bettered his xG by a wide margin.
His xG per 90 minutes is 0.4, matching Anderson’s numbers over the last three games overall. That’s just over two shots on goal per game for Wood.
The only player with nearly similar stats over this period is Rucka. His two shots registered an xG of 0.56, but he has been left on the bench since the arrival of Vitor Pereira.
Lucca is also the closest player to Wood as a player. A towering center forward who has a physical presence in the penalty area. The goal that the player should aim for. That appears to be the best fit for Forest, but if he continues to lack efficiency, the need for Wood’s return will become increasingly desperate.
The 34-year-old last kicked a ball in October, having been sidelined after undergoing knee surgery. However, Pereira said he hopes the striker will be back soon.
It’s a lot of pressure to put on someone after a long game, but if these issues in front of goal linger there will be little time for Wood to relax.
Will it be the same against City?
Pereira has to deal with the here and now before Wood returns.
A trip to the Etihad is not the kind of game most Forest fans would like in this heatwave. However, City are not the rich machine they once were. Teams can achieve them.
City have had 283 shots this season, just over 10 of 90. However, over the last five games, that number has increased to 13.6, indicating they are more vulnerable than usual.
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The Super Sunday panel reflected on Gianluigi Donnarumma’s critical save from Alexis Mac Allister in the closing stages, with Man City manager Josep Guardiola re-enacting his stop on the touchline.
That’s a plus for Forest. The negative is that it may not matter. Not only have City won all but one of these matches, but converting their chances into goals has proven difficult for their opponents. No team in the Premier League this season has prevented more goals than Josep Guardiola’s side.
Pereira is on record as saying that he would not build a team that would settle for a draw. It’s a win no matter what. At this point, it has to be.
But the calculation is easy. You can’t win if you don’t score. And Forrest must find the missing ingredient before it’s too late.
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