Football betting expert Jones Knows provides insight into the entire Premier League midweek card and looks to back Fulham to beat Manchester City.
Bournemouth v Everton, Tuesday 7.30pm, live on Sky Sports
Digging into Bournemouth’s recent defensive slippage, Sky Bet’s odds of 5/2 for Everton to win are certainly eye-catching.
The Cherries are conceding goals at a pace that worries Andoni Iraola, having conceded 15 goals in their last six games. The departures of Dean Huisen and Ilya Zabarny are now felt to have robbed Bournemouth of both mobility and composure in central areas. The suspension of Marcos Senesi makes the situation even worse, leaving Iraola without their most reliable defender in terms of timing, duel and Premier League experience.
Everton thrive in territory, pressure and set-piece moments, exactly the areas where Bournemouth are starting to wobble. Under David Moyes, they have won seven of their 15 away days. It could be eight.
Score prediction: 1-2
Fulham vs Manchester City, Tuesday 7.30pm, live on Sky Sports
Manchester City’s away team smacks of vulnerability, with 4/6 on Sky Bet for an away win looking very slim. The bookmakers must be secretly confident that they will beat Pep Guardiola’s side here.
City’s problems aren’t some headline-grabbing collapse, they’re subtle, the kind of problems that only emerge when you start looking a little deeper. In their last 17 Premier League away games, City have averaged just 1.19 goals per game. This is a mid-table result, a far cry from their title-winning days when they averaged nearly two goals per game away from home. This is not an indicator of a strong, odds-on favorite.
Marco Silva’s men can be ragged on the road, but they play with more cohesiveness at Craven Cottage. Only Arsenal have conceded fewer goals (two) than Silva’s side (three) in their home games this season.
Fulham are 5/2 and a no bet is a big price to pay for Sky Bet.
Score prediction: 2-1 | Jones knows Best bet: Fulham draw on no bet (5/2, with Sky Bet)
Newcastle vs Tottenham, Tuesday 8.15pm, live on Sky Sports
Tottenham arrive at St James’ Park with all the hallmarks of a team in the final third.
Over the course of the season, they averaged just 9.5 shots per game and 3.2 shots on target, the lowest in the Premier League since Opta began compiling the data. Spurs remain a team that struggles to generate any semblance of sustained pressure.
Fundamental numbers paint an even bleaker picture. Spurs have scored less than 1.0 expected goals in their last four Premier League games and seven of their last eight. It’s not sudden, it’s an identity crisis. Thomas Frank is already under serious pressure.
Newcastle are also a force at home. Their intensity, their physicality, the speed of their press. Your opponent will choke long before reaching the final third.
With Tottenham’s chance creation non-existent and Newcastle’s defensive metrics consistently strong at St James’ Park, a nil win at 2/1 on Sky Bet is a natural landing spot for value hunters.
Score prediction: 2-0
Arsenal vs Brentford, Wednesday 7:30pm, live on Sky Sports – Play the Super 6 here!
Arsenal continue to attack efficiently and relentlessly.
Mikel Arteta’s side are currently unbeaten in 17 games in all competitions, the longest run under the Spanish manager, and have the strongest defensive foundation of any team in Europe.
In fact, Arsenal have the most clean sheets (7) and the fewest losses (1) in all competitions in Europe’s major leagues, elite numbers that tell you exactly where their authority lies.
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Highlights of the Premier League match between Chelsea and Arsenal.
And Brentford are exactly the kind of team Arsenal tend to keep at arm’s length.
Arsenal have managed to score under 3.5 goals in nine of their last 15 Premier League games. That’s the pattern. Pros win.
With discipline and control, there is no need for fireworks. That bet is offered at Evens with Sky Bet.
Score prediction: 2-0
Brighton vs Aston Villa, Wednesday 7:30pm, live on Sky Sports – Play the Super 6 here!
Ezri Konsa has quietly become one of the Premier League’s most adept at picking up fouls. The numbers prove it. Konsa has been fouled at least twice in six of his last 11 starts, averaging 1.6 fouls per game over the season.
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Konsa’s role under Unai Emery is tailor-made to elicit pressure. He steps into midfield, drives into space and becomes the starting point for the opposition’s press.
Konsa is being offered at 5/4 to draw two or more fouls on Sky Bet, a price that doesn’t quite keep up with the player’s true ability to draw fouls.
Score prediction: 1-1
Burnley vs Crystal Palace, Wednesday 7.30pm, live on Sky Sports – Play the Super 6 here!
Crystal Palace have an air of uncertainty, even in a game of such winnable proportions.
On the pitch, they are still a team that achieves a lot, but the mood music playing in the background is starting to change. Oliver Glassner has made no secret of his displeasure at the lack of ambition seen above him, and it rarely subsides when a director starts making such name-calling.
You don’t need a degree in psychology to see how quickly it permeates the dressing room. Players can feel the uncertainty. And teams that should be bullying lesser opponents suddenly find themselves hesitant and starting to feel the extra strain on their legs that is making headlines all over the world.
A draw is likely, with Burnley looking likely to take a double chance at evens with Sky Bet.
Score prediction: 1-1
Wolves vs Nottingham Forest, Wednesday 7.30pm, live on Sky Sports – play the Super 6 here!
Wolves and the growing threat from set-pieces under Rob Edwards remains a betting angle to explore.
Jelson Mosquera has the attributes to be a big threat in those situations — tall, athletic, competitive through the air — and Edwards recognized those qualities based on how prominent Mosquera was in Wolves’ set-piece setups in the loss to Villa.
The defender had two shots there, but was denied a goal by season save candidate Emiliano Martinez. If Edwards rinses and repeats his set-piece routine, Mosquera will be very valuable in the shot market and even on Sky Bet with one or more shots.
Score Prediction: 1-2 | Jones Knows Best Bets: Yerson Mosquera Shots +1 (Even with Sky Bet)
Leeds vs Chelsea, Wednesday 8:15pm, live on Sky Sports – Play Super 6s here!
A football season isn’t defined by headline games like beating Liverpool at home or picking up 10 points against Arsenal. Those moments can create momentum and belief, but they don’t win titles. Challengers for top honors are characterized by awkward, uphill away days in which the favorites must prove their resilience rather than their talent. And Chelsea’s visit to Elland Road falls into that category. A win here could give him a title push.
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Watch for free: Premier League match highlights between West Ham and Liverpool.
Chelsea must get through these games if they are real title contenders. It’s easy to raise the level of Liverpool or Arsenal, but it’s much harder to recreate that clarity when you’re being chased by a team whose main motivation is to make your night miserable. It could be a difficult game for Chelsea. The draw appears to be a 3/1 bet on Sky Bet.
Score prediction: 1-1
Liverpool vs Sunderland, Wednesday 8:15pm, live on Sky Sports – Play Super 6s here!
Anyone who has been on the Liverpool goalscoring train in recent weeks should have no reason to fear what they smelled after Sunday’s 2-0 win over a meek and placid West Ham side.
One clean sheet against a team that seems allergic to progressive passing does not suddenly fix what has become Liverpool’s very clear tendency to concede big chances, and many of them. Only West Ham, Burnley, Manchester United and Everton have conceded more goals than Liverpool (23).
In the last eight games, Liverpool have scored 16 goals.
The aura of defensive invincibility that Virgil van Dijk and Ibrahima Konate once exuded has faded.
Sunderland fit the exact criteria that Liverpool have struggled with, pressing with energy and enthusiasm and attacking quickly when there is space. You don’t have to dominate the game to score. Adding all this up, both teams scoring and over 2.5 goals is good value at 11/10 on Sky Bet.
Score prediction: 3-1
Manchester United vs West Ham, Thursday 8pm, live on Sky Sports
Jarrod Bowen scoring 3/1 on SkyBet is a generous gift from SkyBet traders. It might be an early Christmas present.
Bowen is the spark in this West Ham team. He does it all, leading the shot-producing action, progressive carries, ball progression and shots on target. When West Ham are able to pose a threat, it often comes through him.
Manchester United have kept just two clean sheets in their last 21 games, and their defense continues to have major structural problems, leaving them under-powered in key areas.
Score prediction: 2-2 | Jones Knows best bet: Jarrod Bowen to score (3/1, Sky Bet)
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Watch for free: Highlights of the Premier League match between Crystal Palace and Manchester United.
Jones knows:
Fulham vs. Manchester City 1pt for no bet (5/2 at Skybet) 1pt for +1 shot for Jerson Mosquera (even number at Skybet) 1pt for goal with Jarrod Bowen (3/1 at Skybet)
