Football betting expert Jones Knows provides insight across the Premier League and makes the case for Tottenham to beat Arsenal.
Burnley vs Chelsea, Saturday 12.30pm
Chelsea’s matches against teams in danger of being relegated tend to start very slowly and erratically. If we evaluate the last 11 Premier League games against promoted teams or Wolves, only three of them were won at half-time.
Sometimes these trends have little substance, but I think they make sense here, as Enzo Maresca is a notoriously control-oriented manager who doesn’t take too many risks, even when playing against lower-ranked teams. Therefore, the score in the first half may be lower. Under Maresca, seven Premier League teams have scored more first-half goals than Chelsea.
The team may also struggle to find their rhythm in the first game after this break, but that’s something they can use to their advantage here as they face Chelsea in the first half.
The half-time/full-time market looks like a market involving a draw/Chelsea paying 7/2 on Sky Bet in a game where Chelsea should improve their attacking power as the game progresses.
Score prediction: 1-2
Brighton vs Brentford, Saturday 3pm
The Betting Master Derby is a match where Tony Bloom and Matthew Benham’s algorithms always have a superior edge.
All the data screams that Brighton are a top team in the making in terms of playing style, but they are a risky team when the market is fueled. They can struggle against low blocks or when enjoying a share of possession due to their lack of killer instincts in the final third.
They have enjoyed more possession than their opponents in their last 21 games, but have won just four of them. So if you back their opposition in these places based on double chance, you can get a very high return on investment based on price. Brentford are the obvious play here, having beaten Liverpool, Manchester United and Newcastle in the 5/6 market on Sky Bet this season.
Score Prediction: 1-2 | JONES KNOWS’ BEST BET: Brentford Double Chance (5/6 at Sky Bet)
Bournemouth vs West Ham, Saturday 3pm – Super 6 play!
When these two managers meet, history tells us we have a goal.
Andoni Iraola has faced Nuno Espirito Santo four times and has scored 14 goals. This is an average of 3.5 goals per game, with both teams scoring together in each match.
Iraola clearly knows how to take advantage of the transition period in Nuno’s defensive setup, but West Ham, who have found a winning formula with six goals in their last three games, have the quality to punish their mistakes.
This should also be a game where both teams push hard from the beginning and leave nothing to chance, and with both teams scoring and a Sky Bet of 2.5 goals or more, 11/10 will be a very attractive play to consider.
Score prediction: 3-2
Fulham v Sunderland, Saturday 3pm
If Fulham were to become involved in a relegation battle this season, there would be concerns about whether the team could cope with the sustained stress and physical pressure that comes with a relegation battle.
Marco Silva’s team are looking for rhythm, control and a ball that flies around in neat triangles. What they don’t want is a team that arrives and asks them to roll up their sleeves and defend something ugly. And that’s exactly what Sunderland bring to the table – just ask Arsenal.
At 14/1 Dan Ballard, who scored against the Gunners and can score anytime here, looks pretty expensive.
Ballard is Sunderland’s biggest threat from set pieces. He times his runs well, attacks the ball like a centre-forward and doesn’t need volume. It only takes one clean delivery to cause panic. He should seize the moment, a golden opportunity for Sunderland to pick up three more points against a Fulham defense who struggle to pick up strong players in the box.
Score prediction: 1-2 | Jones Knows best bet: Dan Ballard to score (14/1, Sky Bet)
Liverpool vs Nottingham Forest, Saturday 3pm – PLAY SUPER 6!
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Jamie Carragher believes Liverpool need to spend money in January to strengthen their defence. You can watch the full interview on Sky Sports News ‘Inside Liverpool’ at 19:00.
Sean Dyche’s teams are famous for being used to soaking up pressure. While he doesn’t always create high-quality chances, he does allow a lot of low-probability shots. In 28 Premier League games played away to either Liverpool, Manchester City or Arsenal, Dyche’s team conceded 20.1 shots per 90.
The tendency to absorb it plays directly into Liverpool’s hands. The Reds are willing to take a lot of shots, even from distance or awkward positions. I fully expect Arne Slott’s side to dominate possession, apply sustained pressure and force many tries – even if Forest don’t concede many clear-cut chances, that could lead to them remaining competitive in the match.
This looks like a great opportunity to back a Liverpool overall shot line of over 20 at 5/4 on Sky Bet.
Score prediction: 1-0
Wolves vs Crystal Palace, Saturday 3pm – Play Super 6!
Rob Edwards takes over as Wolves manager for the first time on Saturday
Football clubs love reset buttons. New manager, new message, new mood music, new hope.
But sometimes a reset is just a rebrand rather than a rebirth, and the Timberwolves’ hiring of Rob Edwards feels akin to putting lipstick on a pig.
It’s not because Edwards isn’t an effective coach. His performances at Luton, Forest Green and early games at Middlesbrough are testament to his ability. However, this Timberwolves team currently has serious problems with its hierarchy that cannot be magically solved by simply changing the face in the dugout.
Crystal Palace, by contrast, are a team that knows who they are. Compact when he doesn’t have the ball, efficient when he does have it, endowed with final-third qualities where he doesn’t need 10 chances to make a one-count.
They are physically stronger, more organized and operate with a clarity that Wolves cannot match at the moment. An away win on Sky Bet in 19/20 should be certain.
Score prediction: 0-2
Newcastle vs Manchester City, Saturday 5.30pm, live on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6!
When it comes to Eddie Howe vs Manchester City, the statistics don’t lie. Pep Guardiola has his numbers in a big way. Howe has faced City 18 times in the Premier League, never winning and losing 16 times.
This type of advantage for Guardiola is not just a quirk, it is a very reliable pattern when making betting decisions.
Despite City’s superiority in head-to-head games, Howe is unlikely to change the way he sets up his team in games like this. He knows he’s likely to be overrun, so he instead tries to limit damage by focusing on securing defenses. Newcastle showed they can be a bit cautious in big games like this. It absorbs and reduces space, making it difficult for City to feed Erling Haaland.
This means we favor a City win along the 3.5 goals or less line of 15/8, using Sky Bet’s rates as a smart way to increase the odds of an away win.
Score prediction: 0-2
Leeds vs Aston Villa, Sunday 2pm, Live on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6!
The offside trap is back for Aston Villa.
It’s not just a quirk or a tactical flourish, it’s the beating heart of Unai Emery’s defensive identity. And importantly, there is a real correlation between Villa getting that line right and Villa winning football matches.
Every time Villa’s back four line up as one, they suffocate the opposition. Attacks stall, runners misfire, and moments of danger are flagged and reset.
Villa have been caught offside 4.5 times per game in their last 12 games. And in their last seven Premier League games they have had 28 players caught offside, 10 more than any other team.
That’s no coincidence, considering they’ve won five of their last six Premier League games. And Leeds prefers to push the body forward in a direct manner. Its tactical philosophy is tailor-made for Emery’s razor-accurate traps to thrive once again.
All roads lead to a win at 6/4 in favor of Aston Villa at Sky Bet. If the flag is flying, so should Villa.
Score prediction: 1-2
Arsenal vs. Tottenham, Sunday 4:30pm, live on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6!
Gabriel is the linchpin of Arsenal’s defense, providing high-line, aerial insurance and the most physical presence in the back four. If his abductor injury is as serious as early reports suggest, Arsenal could be in trouble in the coming weeks. Start here.
Thomas Frank’s Tottenham side will enjoy a derby-day assignment.
There are few managers in the league who coach ‘underdog football’ as effectively as the former Brentford boss.
Frank’s Brentford side were used to punishing the big teams. The smart money guys copy and paste that blueprint here and say they are going to frustrate, pounce and take advantage of Arsenal’s lack of defensive enforcers in both open play and set pieces. Spurs have the quality to make big moves in games, as they did in the away match against Manchester City and in the Super Cup match against PSG.
At Sky Bet, the betting clearly leans towards Arsenal at 2/5, but that doesn’t fully account for the defensive reshuffle forced by Gabriel’s absence. Of course, Arsenal can and probably will win, but Tottenham suddenly have a serious foothold in this fixture and the market doesn’t fully reflect that.
Tottenham’s Double Chance is 2/1 on Sky Bet. And we need to take a closer look at the away win at 7/1.
Score prediction: 1-2
Manchester United vs Everton, Monday 8pm, live on Sky Sports
Manchester United should come with a disclaimer: “Interesting but structurally unstable.”
Ruben Amorim’s side are full of attacking flair, energy and moments of genuine quality, but with enough defensive laxity to make all 90 minutes a wild ride. He has scored 37 goals in Premier League matches, giving him an average of 3.36 goals out of 90. No team boasts a higher goals-against average.
As such, they are a must-watch team in the Premier League.
Amorim realizes and embraces that they are a team built for moments, not consistency.
And goals at both ends are becoming the smartest angle in United’s game.
This is going to be a game where both teams are obsessed with moving forward, but without the ball neither team can fully trust themselves. Sky Bet has both teams scoring 10/11 with over 2.5 goals scored, which looks very effective given the way United are going in the game.
Score Prediction: 2-2 | JONES KNOWS Best Bet: 2.5 Goals or More & Both Teams to Score (10/11 on Sky Bet)
Jones knows:
1pt double chance & over 2.5 goals for Brentford double chance, both teams score in Man United vs Everton (5/2 with Sky Bet) 1 point with Dan Ballard scoring Sunderland (14/1 with Sky Bet)
