Football betting experts Jones Knows provide insight into this weekend’s Premier League fixtures.
Crystal Palace v Wolves, Sunday 2pm, live on Sky Sports
When it comes to football betting, there’s nothing more powerful than conference numbers.
Jorgen Strand Larsen to play for new employers Crystal Palace against former club Wolves? The angle is such that the juice flows.
The 25/1 on offer at Sky Bet for him to score and take the card is one of those double-win prices. A player with a point to prove is dangerous.
We often see former players starting these matches at full throttle. Emotions can creep in and emotions can lead to reservations. If he scores, celebrations could erupt. Both bets can be won in a single action. And they still have a chance to land at another point in the match.
Score prediction: 2-0 | Jones knows best bet: Jorgen Strand Larsen scores and wins card (January 25 on Sky Bet)
Nottingham Forest v Liverpool, Sunday 2pm, live on Sky Sports – Play the Super 6 here!
If you’re thinking about the price of Liverpool’s straight win in 4/5 away against Nottingham Forest, I agree with you.
However, in some cases, sharper play not only confirms the obvious results, but also confirms the patterns associated with them. A clean sheet win for Liverpool at 23/10 looks like a much more valuable perspective. Liverpool tend to close the door when they win. There’s very little to say about their recent wins, especially in games where the market expects them to go about their business.
The last seven wins have all been clean sheets against teams that have won away at 4/5 or better. Dominating these types of matches allows you to control territory, limit transitions, and drain life from your opponent. This is how Arne Slot does it.
Zooming out even further, nine of the last 11 wins overall have also come by zero.
Score prediction: 0-1
Sunderland vs Fulham, Sunday 2pm, live on Sky Sports – Play the Super 6 here!
This is one of those very condensed markets where you can make claims about all three outcomes without actually being convinced. The winning price is tight, with both players hovering around the 17/10 mark, and the handicap line is cautious.
In that case, the draw is often the value simply because it is the largest price of the three.
23/10 pays out more for outcomes that fit the shape of the game. At home Sunderland are very competitive, well trained and rarely get blown away. Fulham are organized and tactically mature, comfortable playing within tight margins away from home. These two can cancel each other out.
Score prediction: 1-1
Tottenham vs Arsenal, Sunday 4:30pm, live on Sky Sports – play the Super 6 here!
There are many people on the line, with a sense of pure nervousness behind them. Tottenham are too big to win at 5/1, but their best bet revolves around the cards.
There have been 5.3 yellows per game in the past 13 meetings, and I expect them to hit that average, but the market has covered that.
Therefore, we recommend heading towards the player card.
Martin Zvimendi is where my money will be spent on 11/4 at Sky Bet.
Zvimendi is a cynical player, prone to making mistakes in transition and getting into trouble in big atmospheres. He has been carded away at Liverpool, Sunderland and Chelsea, and has also featured three times in the Champions League this season.
His direct opponent here, Xavi Simmons, is also one of the reasons for his involvement. He has an excellent draw of fouls and cards. And it makes the challenge look worse than it actually is. This is an important characteristic when looking for value in card matches.
Calculating the cards drawn over the past three league seasons, he has drawn 37 cards from opponents in just over 4,000 minutes of play. This means that a card is drawn every 108 minutes, or approximately one card per match. Elite level skullduggery.
Score prediction: 2-1 | Jones knows best bet: Martin Zvimendi to be carded (11/4, with Sky Bet)
Everton vs Manchester United, Monday 8pm, live on Sky Sports
Harry Maguire, fouled at 5/6 on Sky Bet, looks like a tough angle to attack.
The bet has been quietly circulating ever since he returned to United’s starting XI. He has been fouled in each of his last five starts, winning those games with a total of seven fouls. He aggressively attacks first contact, stepping into midfield with the ball and not shying away from putting his body between opponents and possession. If you would like to play that way, please contact us below.
His likely direct opponent, Tierno Barry, averages 1.75 fouls per 90 minutes. It’s a forward who engages, presses hard and doesn’t mind leaving his feet behind when chasing.
