Football betting experts Jones Knows provide insight into the entire Premier League midweek card.
West Ham vs Nottingham Forest, Tuesday 8pm, live on Sky Sports
These are the contests that will decide the relegation battle. It’s going to be ugly and tense. And here’s something you can’t miss.
West Ham’s Nuno Espirito Santo versus Nottingham Forest’s Sean Dyche is not a matchup that screams “bring me the popcorn”. When these two directors crossed paths in their careers, their goals were very important. That’s the betting angle here. They have scored just 19 total goals in their nine previous meetings, with seven of those games ending in fewer than 2.5 goals.
The managerial showdown here, in addition to the likely nature of a cup final, quietly points to another low-scoring chapter in the Nuno vs. Dyche playbook. 10/11 with a Sky Bet of less than 2.5 goals is an obvious play.
Score prediction: 0-1
Bournemouth v Tottenham, Wednesday 7.30pm, live on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6!
Cristian Romero likes a defense that quickly shifts from aggressive to reckless. That’s why the referees know his name. Eight yellow cards and one red card this season already tell their own story.
Bournemouth are very good at causing chaos that leads to cards. Andoni Iraola’s side will want to play quickly, get the ball between the lines and force the centre-backs into decisions they don’t want. That’s where Striker Evanilsson, a real card magnet, comes in.
Since the start of last season, he has drawn 21 cards from his opponents, only Bruno Guimarães has drawn more.
Romero is 2/1 with Sky Bet on the card. That’s a gamble.
Score Prediction: 2-1 | JONES KNOWS’ BEST BET: Cristian Romero (2/1 with Sky Bet)
Cristian Romero is 2/1 with Sky Bet on the card
Brentford v Sunderland, Wednesday, 7.30pm, live on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6!
Robin Roofs has been nothing short of sensational since his £11.5 million move from NEC Nijmegen in August. He has kept seven clean sheets so far this season, three of which have come in the last five games. His save percentage of 78.4 percent is the best in the league.
Loevs leads all goalies in xG blocks with +4.9. That means he has conceded nearly five fewer goals than expected, and only Martin Dubravka (70) has saved more this season. In his last nine games on the road, he has averaged 4.3 saves per 90 games, and in seven of those games, players supporting his four-save or better save line have won prizes.
Brentford have arrived in great form with 10 goals and 10 points in their last four games, and the game is turning into one where the opposing goalkeeper will be in constant demand. Rufus has a Sky Bet rating of 10/11 with 4+ saves as a value play.
Score prediction: 2-1
Robin Roofs made over 4 saves for Brentford on 10/11 with Sky Bet
Crystal Palace vs Aston Villa, Wednesday 7.30pm, live on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6!
This game is all about dugout dynamics.
Oliver Glasner’s Crystal Palace appear to know exactly how to play Aston Villa and Unai Emery. The record is astonishing. Palace are unbeaten in their last six games, winning five of them, with an aggregate score of 19-4. pure domination.
And if such a pattern continues across different game states, venues, and moments of the season, it’s fair to declare that Glassner has Emery’s number. It’s a system Villa have struggled to solve time and time again. Every time they attempt to set foot in the Palace, they are drawn into the very transitional chaos in which Glasner’s camp thrives.
At Selhurst Park, Palace’s recent dominance in this match, and a manager who outplays his opponents’ numbers time and time again, means Palace are outsiders at 2/1, and the fact that Sky Bet’s rating makes them an attractive angle to attack.
Score prediction: 2-1
Everton vs Wolves, Wednesday 7.30pm, live on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6!
Defensively, the Wolves look different.
Over their last five Premier League games, Wolves have scored just 1.01 expected goals out of 90, the second-best defensive record in the league over this sample size. And context enhances it. This run has included games against Arsenal, Manchester United and Liverpool, games that typically feature more defenders rather than fewer defenders. West Ham found out on Saturday.
They were limited to scraps in terms of offensive returns, but for the first time this season, the Wolves’ attack showed a relentless streak as they cruised to a 3-0 win. Similar results are likely to continue in the coming weeks.
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Highlights of the Premier League match between Wolves and West Ham.
Everton may struggle to find a way to play at evens with the double chance option for an away win on Sky Bet.
Score prediction: 1-1
Fulham vs Chelsea, Wednesday 7.30pm, live on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6!
Whether it’s Joao Pedro dropping and rolling defenders or Liam Delap playing on his shoulder and inviting contact, Chelsea’s forwards are excellent at turning physical battles into card parties. A foul is drawn. And the cards tend to follow suit.
Eight centre-backs have been carded against Chelsea in the last 15 games, and Fulham defender Jorge Cuenca could be given a proper test here.
Cuenca’s recent record suggests he will be on the referee’s radar. He has been suspended for two of his last four fights and has a historically punchy card profile. A look at his 0.28 cards per 90 ratio from his La Liga days shows that he is a defender who plays on the front foot and is happy to get involved early rather than drop out. 7/2 with a sky bet on the Cuenca card has a chance.
Score Prediction: 1-1 | JONES KNOWS’ BEST BET: Jorge Cuenca (7/2, Sky Bet)
Manchester City vs Brighton, Wednesday 7.30pm, live on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6!
Brighton are not your average Premier League mid-table team when it comes to visiting elite teams, and the numbers prove it.
Taking a closer look at Brighton’s data against the Premier League’s top-flight teams, the picture becomes very interesting for those who like to make shot bets when the price is right.
In 12 games against Liverpool, Arsenal and Manchester City under manager Fabian Hürzahler, Brighton have averaged 14.5 shots on target, on the back of a very healthy expected goals per game figure of 1.5. This is a tremendous achievement and deserves the utmost respect in a game where City may be without their first-choice defensive duo of Josko Gvardiol and Ruben Dias.
The market is lagging on this shot curve. With Sky Bet, you can jump on Brighton and score 10 or more shots at evens. This is the number they have scored in their last three meetings with Josep Guardiola’s side.
Score prediction: 2-1
Burnley vs Manchester United, Wednesday 8:15pm, live on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6!
Despite Wolves holding the division, Burnley are actually the worst team out of the 20, according to the data.
Their expected goals against numbers shows they concede 2.00 xG per 90 points, the worst in the division. This is a team that consistently creates quality chances for opponents in dangerous areas. Burnley are also at the bottom of the league in terms of xG supremacy, with -1.07 damage per 90 points. Simply put, you’re losing overall almost every week.
The amount of shots also emphasizes the same message. Burnley face more shots than any other team in the Premier League and concede more big chances than any other team. This looks like a great opportunity for Manchester United’s attackers to flex their muscles, and 7/4 with Sky Bet in the -1 handicap market looks like an interesting angle to explore.
Score prediction: 0-3
Newcastle vs Leeds, Wednesday 8.15pm, live on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6!
Newcastle have scored at least two goals in their last 11 home games. That attacking stability was on display again in the last game against Crystal Palace, when they performed as expected in this column, and in the 10/11 home win, Newcastle scored more than 1.5 goals. If so, there is no need to change the winning formula.
Expect goals, expect control and expect Newcastle to deliver in front of their fans once again. Through the Sky Bet BuildABet feature, 4/5 bets on Newcastle to win and Newcastle to score 1.5 or more goals should still stand.
Score prediction: 2-0
Arsenal vs Liverpool, Thursday 8pm, live on Sky Sports
According to our Premier League title odds, there has never been a time when Arsenal are more likely to win than this season. Sky Bet’s offer of 1/4 for Arsenal to win the title was the shortest offer all season after Chelsea’s late salvo against Manchester City. The only thing that can stop Arsenal now is Arsenal.
This match is worth checking the under 2.5 goals line at 11/10 on Sky Bet. Mikel Arteta and Arne Slott are also cut from a similar cloth. Territory is important. Risk management is important. Neither one wants a basketball game.
When two managers are so obsessed with control, the game itself often becomes draining. These kinds of big matches between elite coaches often promise drama and instead deliver tension. Either way, one goal would be enough.
