Our football betting expert Jones Knows provides insight into Saturday’s match and predicts both Wolves and Burnley could win…
Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest, Saturday 12:30pm, live on Sky Sports
Nottingham Forest’s attack has been erratic and confidence is fragile for a team built on structure and discipline. Teams coached in the mold of Sean Dyche are likely to continue to do poorly, and it could work both ways as chance creation tends to dry up when belief declines. Forest arrived exactly in that space, scoring just one goal in their last three games, but struggled to provide quality consistently in their last three games.
That’s the problem with Villa Park. Unai Emery’s Aston Villa have been relentless, winning their last 10 games at home. They can win again without conceding, which makes them a 2/1 shot on Sky Bet.
Score prediction: 1-0
Brighton v Burnley, Saturday 3pm
Burnley’s 10-match winless record jumps off the page and most people will declare this a home banker at 1/2 on Sky Bet, but dig a little deeper and there are signs of life. Scott Parker isn’t stubborn, he’s proactive, trying to tweak personnel and roles to make things happen.
He finds an exciting dynamic in the attacking pairing of Marcus Edwards and Armando Broja, who looked really dangerous against Newcastle. Edwards’ ability to receive between the lines and attack defenders gave Burnley a threat they had lacked for several weeks, while Broja’s power and directness could stretch the backline.
Brighton look set to rise as odds-on favorites to win once again. They are winless in six games and their games at the Amex have lately lacked the control and fluency that once made them reliable. If Burnley display the same attacking prowess they showed in their last game, it could quickly turn into an unpleasant afternoon for the hosts.
Score prediction: 1-2
Wolves v West Ham, Saturday 3pm
This has all the hallmarks of a place where an extraordinary ride finally begins.
The Wolves entering their 20th game of the season without a win is a unique situation that rarely lasts forever. Soccer has a habit of correcting these extremes, especially when performances begin to hint at changes beneath the surface. And the Wolves’ recent performance suggests the team is not completely lost.
His performances against Liverpool and Manchester United were quietly encouraging. Wolves fought with purpose and, crucially, showed a level of courage in possession that has been lacking at times this season.
West Ham are incredibly flexible when under pressure in games and Wolves may just need a split second to turn what could be an ugly situation to their advantage. For the home team to win by one point, it looks like you’ll be betting 3/1 on Sky Bet.
Score prediction: 1-0 | Best bet Jones knows: Wolves win by one point (3/1, Sky Bet)
Bournemouth vs Arsenal, Saturday 5.30pm, live on Sky Sports
At the moment it is impossible to make a credible case against anyone in the Premier League, much less the league leaders, against Bournemouth. Their defensive numbers have plummeted to alarming levels, and the eye test is consistent with the data. It looks open and fragile and is very easy to play. 2.25 goals conceded per 90 games over the past 12 games is alarming in itself, but looking at the expected goals conceded rate of 1.9 goals per 90 shows that this isn’t bad luck, it’s a fundamental problem that shows no signs of being fixed.
Arsenal don’t need many invitations to punish their mistakes, but Bournemouth are currently handing out invitations far too often.
Arsenal’s old friends emerged victorious after winning five of their last seven games within 3.5 goals.
