Football betting experts Jones Knows predicted four winners from four bets on Tuesday night, but what’s in store for Wednesday’s Premier League?
Aston Villa vs Chelsea, Wednesday 7:30pm – Play Super 6 here!
Aston Villa are a team to contend with now, with their engine room still broken. The absence of John McGinn, Youri Tielemans and Boubakar Kamara deprived them of control, progression and bite in one of the most important areas of the pitch.
Without that trio, Villa look stale. Possession is delayed. The press corps lacks cohesion. The intention is not there.
The results bear that out. One win from six games, including the defeat against Wolves, is even worse considering none of the opponents in those six games are in the Premier League’s top six. This isn’t a series of bad games, it’s a drop in performance level.
But what’s interesting is that Villa’s defensive process hasn’t completely collapsed. In those six games, they averaged just two goals per game. It’s not that it’s blown, it’s just that it lacks a spark.
Villa’s recent matches suggest that the scores have been low.
Chelsea’s win and Sky Bet’s 5/2 under 3.5 goals fits right in with these recent trends. This would allow for a 1-0, 2-0 or even 2-1 away win, but given Villa’s current limitations, this feels a much more realistic result than a goal fest.
Score prediction: 0-2
Brighton vs Arsenal, Wednesday 7:30pm – Play the Super 6 here!
Pierrot Hincapie has been fouled at least once in nine of Arsenal’s last 10 games as a left-back, including his super-sub concession by Sky Bet. When a player is on track with a 90% strike rate in their role, it provides consistency that provides a great investment opportunity.
He’s a great salesman when it comes to fouls. Playing in a position where you are learning on the job means you get into difficult situations when faced with pressure. His answer to them? Slams into the deck while in contact. That’s the modern way.
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Watch for free: Highlights of the Premier League match between Arsenal and Chelsea.
This ability to win fouls is also not new. Last season with Bayer Leverkusen, he committed 1.4 fouls per 90, a strong number even in a large sample size. Brighton rank third in the Premier League for fouls this season (12.6 per game), so Hincap should find plenty of opportunities to show off his foul-drawing skills. He has a 2/1 win with +2 fouls on Sky Bet.
Score prediction: 0-2
Fulham vs West Ham, Wednesday 7:30pm – Play Super 6 here!
If you’re looking for a game that might let you loose midweek, you’ve come to the right place.
Fulham games are a goal-scoring attraction. 10 out of the last 11 have rewarded 2.5 or more backers. When their game stretches, it really stretches. And when that happens, the totals tend to follow.
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Highlights of the Premier League match between Fulham and Tottenham Hotspur.
That’s why the ‘both teams score at least 2.5 goals’ angle at evens on Sky Bet is particularly appealing.
West Ham arrive with a real attacking threat of their own. Crisencio Somerville and Jarrod Bowen provide pace and incision from wide and central areas, giving teams the ability to cause damage in transition and sustained pressure.
Over their last nine games, West Ham have scored 1.7 goals per game. The expected goals data is even stronger at 2.05 per game. These are not numbers that would be associated with a team that has risen in price and are likely to be relegated, but are creating chances at a rate of half of the top.
Score prediction: 2-2
Manchester City vs Nottingham Forest, Wednesday 7:30pm – Play the Super 6 here!
Manchester City have conceded more than 11 shots in each of their last seven Premier League games, averaging 12.8 shots per game. It’s not vintage Pep Guardiola control. However, the market is ignoring this trend.
Even Wolves managed to hit the 11-shot mark at a good price. This shows that this is a pattern and not just a one-off. City are giving up territory and when you give up territory in the Premier League you give up shots.
Over the last eight games, Nottingham Forest have averaged 18.5 shots per game. It’s a huge volume. They are playing bravely, pushing the numbers forward, and, importantly for this bet, pulling the trigger often. That’s what relegation pressure does to a team.
At Sky Bet’s rates, the odds of Forest winning over 11 shots at 10/11 are a very attractive bet.
Score prediction: 2-1
Newcastle vs Manchester United, Wednesday 8:15pm – Play Super 6 here!
Since returning from injury, Harry Maguire has added a street side to his game. He doesn’t just cluck his hooves or stand tall, he anticipates, positions himself, and invites contact in a way that has seen him pick up more fouls than his long-term averages suggest. Algorithms and markets have not yet caught up.
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Harry Maguire is trending on social media as he claims he was kicked in the head by Crystal Palace’s Jorgen Strand Larsen, but replays show that wasn’t the case – take a closer look!
Numbers are persuasive. He has been fouled 11 times in the past seven games, which is a very average number for a centre-back. What’s even more impressive is that he’s reached the 2+ foul-earning line in four of those games, including the last three on the spin. This shows consistency, which is essential if you want to trust the line of form when betting.
It is natural to expect similar action against Newcastle. Maguire is drawn into the duel and asked to step into center field and cover the runners behind him. He will face a direct challenge, but with Newcastle’s pressing style, a foul is almost guaranteed.
Score Prediction: 1-2 | Jones Knows Best Bet: Harry Maguire +2 to win foul (5/2 at Sky Bet)
Tottenham vs Crystal Palace, Thursday 8pm
Tottenham’s new manager Igor Tudor likes his team to play aggressively. His stints at Lazio and Juventus saw a spike in fouls per 90, but that approach started here in north London. Since Tudor arrived, the Spurs have committed 31 fouls in two games.
Radu Dragusin took on the reckless task in the absence of Cristian Romero, who is suspended. He has seven fouls in the last three games. Calmness is required in Spurs’ situation, and Dragusin’s approach hasn’t necessarily helped calm nerves.
Dragusin’s position, temperament, and Tudor’s high-intensity defensive scheme all indicate he will pick up multiple fouls again.
At 7/2 on Sky Bet for Foul +2, the market doesn’t quite reflect how often Dragusin is forced into challenges and how they are made under Tudor’s system. Two or more fouls seems well within range in this matchup.
