Football betting experts Jones Knows provide insight throughout the Premier League weekend.
West Ham v Sunderland, Saturday 12.30pm
Enzo Le Fe has been quietly sneaking into the wider football world’s attention, but not to the eyes of Sunderland supporters.
Le Fay’s season took a turn the moment he was moved to a more central role. Freed from the touchline and given license to operate between the lines, his influence soared. He sets the tempo, demands the ball and, most importantly in this gamble, takes more shots. The numbers back it up.
Le Fe has scored in his last two games and has had four shots on target during that run overall.
At 5/4 with at least one shot on target on Sky Bet, the market has yet to catch up with his change in position and his increased aggressiveness in the final third.
Score prediction: 1-1
Burnley v Tottenham, Saturday 3pm
The 1-1 draw with Liverpool doesn’t overshadow the bigger picture for Burnley, but this is awful. Burnley are at the bottom of the Premier League in all key fundamental metrics. Expected goals, expected goals against, shots taken, allowed into the box, and other concerns are wiped away.
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Spurs’ ceiling is miles higher than Burnley’s. When they click, they can overwhelm the team. Tuesday’s win against Borussia Dortmund was a reminder of what this team can look like when it combines intensity and quality. Aggressive pressing, fast ball movement and a very solid defensive structure.
Playing away from home this season has not been a negative for Spurs, rather the opposite. They have already traveled to Manchester City, Crystal Palace, Leeds and Everton and returned with victories. The idea that Turf Moor is an impregnable fortress is consistent with this profile of Spurs.
Evening with an away win looks generous.
Score prediction: 0-2 | Jones knows best bet: Tottenham to win (even on Sky Bet)
Fulham v Brighton, Saturday 3pm
You can get very caught up in just choosing sides in the prediction game. A home win or an away win? But sometimes the smartest bet is the one no one wants to back. Fulham vs Brighton is written all over as a draw.
Only one point separates the two in the Premier League. Both teams can beat good teams on their day, but both consistently dominate teams at the same level. When Fulham and Brighton play opponents in this bracket, the games tend to settle into a long equilibrium.
A draw is the most costly of the three outcomes and is a gamble no one wants to support. Punters gravitate toward winners. Bookmakers know this. Draw prices therefore often vary organically beyond where the actual probabilities lie, especially in evenly matched matches like this. Here you can back with Sky Bet on 9/4.
Score prediction: 1-1
Manchester City vs. Wolves, Saturday 3pm
This is a fixture that automatically drags the goal line. Home is Manchester City, Town is Wolves. The market instinctively leans toward afternoons with more goals. But helping this Wolves defense under Rob Edwards has quietly become a useful strategy. They are tighter, more organized, and much more disciplined than they are without the ball. Over the last eight games in the Premier League, Wolves are ranked second in terms of expected goals. That’s the elite defense process.
Next, factor in Manchester City’s week. There is a word called chaos. Distractions, noise, pressure, etc. often lead to realism rather than expression. City don’t need to win big here. Any victory is fine. Take control, manage and move on.
Still, at 1/5 on Sky Bet, they are favorites worth turning around. Of these two winning market options, I’d much rather back a Wolves win at 10/1.
This opens up multiple avenues for under goal bets, with Sky Bet’s under 3.5 line at 4/5 standing out as the main play.
Score Prediction: 1-2 | JONES KNOWS Best Bet: Within 3.5 Goals (4/5 at Sky Bet)
Bournemouth vs Liverpool, Saturday 5.30pm, live on Sky Sports
Florian Wirtz’s start to the Premier League has been a slow burnout, but there are signs that the entire prop market should keep an eye on him.
It was an awkward first few weeks after his £116m move from Leverkusen in the summer. New league, new tempo, new expectations. All of that is jazz.
But Wirtz’s final product recently came under fire. He is currently involved in a goal almost every 102 minutes in the last eight games in all competitions.
After failing to score in his first 22 games for Liverpool, he has found the back of the net in four of his last seven games. It’s a player finding rhythm, timing and trust in those around him.
He took the lead at 8/1 on Sky Bet.
Score prediction: 1-2
Brentford vs Nottingham Forest, Sunday 2pm, live on Sky Sports
Some bets don’t need to be overly complicated. If you look at the venue and look at the numbers, the whole picture becomes clear. Brentford at home are one of those situations and 10/11 on Sky Bet against Nottingham Forest is very difficult to turn down.
G Tech has quietly become one of the toughest places in the Premier League. Brentford took 24 of their 33 points at home, giving them the fourth-best home record in the division. It’s not built on soft equipment either, but a reproducible edge driven by structure, strength and crowd energy.
Brentford are aggressive in duels, strong on second balls and relentless in key moments. They turn the match into an unpleasant experience for the visiting team.
Score prediction: 2-0
Crystal Palace v Chelsea, Sunday 2pm, live on Sky Sports
Oliver Glassner’s impending departure at the end of the season is key. Even the most professional teams feel that their leadership has a deadline. The message loses some bytes. That doesn’t mean Palace will down tools, but it does mean margins can blur focus and at this level, slim margins decide Premier League matches.
Fresh from an off-field reshuffle, Chelsea arrive with something Palace currently lack: clarity. There is no imminent exit. There are no major distractions. There are only points to chase and a clear goal of finishing in the Champions League places under manager Liam Rosenior. That mental clarity is an underrated strength in matches like this, making the Chelsea betting proposition at evens with Sky Bet an interesting one.
Score prediction: 1-2
Sunday, January 25th 12:30pm
Kickoff at 2pm
Newcastle vs Aston Villa, Sunday 2pm, live on Sky Sports
Joelinton and Emotional Control have always lived on opposite sides of the street. He plays on the edge because Newcastle need him. Fierceness, duel, aggression – that’s the description of his work. And against Aston Villa, that advantage tilted into yellow card territory on multiple occasions.
Joelinton is scheduled to play in five of the last seven games between Newcastle and Villa. That’s no coincidence. Villa brought in technical ball-carriers and intelligent movement players who forced Joelinton into recovery challenges, late tackles and tactical fouls.
Morgan Rogers, Youri Tielemans, Ollie Watkins card magnet. Since the start of last season, the trio has drawn a total of 48 cards from opponents. They are smart in their movements, sharp in their turns, and good at inviting contact in dangerous areas.
9/4 with Sky Bet where Joelinton’s card is decided is a serious runner.
Score prediction: 2-1 | JONES KNOWS’ BEST BET: Joelinton on the card (9/4, Sky Bet)
Arsenal vs Manchester United, Sunday 4.30pm, live on Sky Sports
Bukayo Saka’s current record of 12 games without a goal in all competitions is Arsenal’s longest ever without a goal. On the surface, a run like that would make people hesitant to select him in the goalscorer market. But I see it differently. Soccer trends are always changing. And timing is everything when it comes to profit.
Saka remains Arsenal’s heartbeat of creativity, their outlet for danger and the player most likely to capitalize on half-chances in the final third. Arsenal are likely to control the majority of this match, with Saka likely to be central to creating or ending chances.
From a betting perspective, the question is not whether Saka will ultimately score, but when. This looks like the time to jump on 7/4 on Sky Bet.
Score prediction: 2-0
Everton vs Leeds, Monday 8pm, live on Sky Sports
Dominic Calvert-Lewin playing against Everton for the first time in his career is a classic ‘ex-factor’ scenario. A player with motivation, approachability and unfinished business, all of which cannot be factored into the price of a goalscorer. Add in his current form and this becomes a very attractive angle for punters. Calvert-Lewin is feeling excited. His eight goals in his last 10 Premier League games are testament to his finishing acuity and consistency.
He has scored 17 goals in his last nine Premier League games, leading a Leeds side that sit second behind Manchester City (18 goals), which speaks to the image of a confident team. Calvert-Lewin finds the net and you get a 2/1.
