Editor’s analysis
President Trump faces challenges as Iran resists negotiations following military escalation and the killing of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei.
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US President Donald Trump enjoys seeming unpredictable. But when it comes to military operations against Iran, his shifting messages about the length and objectives of the conflict obscure his failure to achieve his clear goal of a quick conclusion where victory can be declared.
Despite Saturday’s killing of Supreme Leader Khamenei (a brazen act that has become Trump’s trademark) and heavy bombing of Iran, the Islamic Republic’s leaders have publicly rejected the possibility of an immediate return to the negotiating table.
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Instead, Iran is testing the will of Gulf Arab states with repeated attacks on civilian areas as well as U.S. assets, and by threatening to attack ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz.
The message from Iran is clear. They believe that Iran has the ability to strike back and that some form of deterrence must be imposed before talks to stop fighting at any time.
That leaves Trump in a scenario he typically avoided during his two terms as president, as the Iranian state prepares for a long war. Perhaps that explains why he was inconsistent with his message.
President Trump has said the war could end in a matter of days, but also indicated it could last up to five weeks or more. He has framed the fight as one for the freedom of the Iranian people and in support of Iran’s opposition, but he has also made it clear that he is willing to strike a deal if the current components abide by his terms.
The reality that President Trump does not have the strength to withstand a long-term battle is shrouded in contradictions. During his time in office, President Trump has happily used the United States’ military power to attack adversaries and even threaten allies. However, he primarily does so when he is able to achieve a quick and easy victory, or retreats if it becomes clear that this is not possible.
Last year’s military operation against the Houthis in Yemen was proof of that. When it became clear that it would take months to fully degrade the Houthis’ offensive capabilities, President Trump agreed to a deal in which the Houthis agreed to cease attacks on U.S. ships, even as the Yemeni group continued its attacks on Israeli interests.
A prolonged conflict with Iran could reverse a quick victory and result in increased U.S. casualties, global economic damage, and an inability to protect regional allies. All because of an already unpopular fight in which President Trump has spent little time trying to convince Americans of his support.
Iran is at a disadvantage, but not a loser.
Iran’s government is weakened by Western sanctions and years of economic problems, caused in part by protests in January that killed thousands of people. But air power alone is always unlikely to disrupt a system that has been embedded throughout Iran for decades.
Rather, President Trump has said he prefers a Venezuelan scenario in which Khamenei’s killing is equivalent to the United States’ abduction of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro in January, and in which other ruling elites intervene to suit U.S. preferences.
So far, the Iranian government is not interested. We believe that by starting negotiations now and reaching an agreement without establishing deterrence, Israel and the United States will soon find new reasons to attack, effectively bringing to Iran the “turf-mowing” strategy used against the Palestinians. This strategy involves intermittent attacks to prevent threats from escalating.
There’s good reason for fear of Iran — and Trump himself has said it. “I can take my time and take over everything, or I can do it in a few days and say to the Iranians, ‘We’ll start rebuilding (the nuclear and missile program) and we’ll see you again in a few years,'” he told news website Axios on Saturday.
This ambiguity gives President Trump the freedom to pivot and pivot the war if he wishes. The US president will likely try to tout the image of Khamenei’s killing and the devastation in Tehran and other regions as a victory if he deems the price too high.
Of course, the consequences will be dire for many others. Further turmoil in the region, damage to the assets and image of allies at the center of the global economy, and Iranian rebels who promised much but may still get little.
