US President Donald Trump has raised tariffs on imports from Mexico by 5%, citing the country’s non-compliance with cross-border water agreements.
The tariff increases were revealed in a social media message late Monday amid heightened tensions between the two North American neighbors.
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“Mexico continues to violate our comprehensive water treaty, and these violations are severely damaging our beautiful Texas crops and livestock,” Trump said on his Truth Social platform.
“Mexico still owes more than 800,000 acre-feet (986.8 million cubic meters) of water to the United States due to noncompliance with the treaty over the past five years.”
The US president’s message set demands and deadlines. He called on Mexico to release 200,000 acre-feet of water, equivalent to 246 million cubic meters, by Dec. 31.
But President Trump added that punitive tariffs are expected to begin immediately.
“At this point, Mexico is not responding, and it is deeply unfair to American farmers, who deserve this much-needed water,” Trump said.
“That’s why I approved a document that would impose a 5% tariff on Mexico if this water is not released immediately. The longer Mexico takes to release the water, the more our farmers will suffer.”
Mexico suffering from drought
President Trump’s request is part of a long-running dispute over the 1944 Water Treaty, which governs flows in waterways that cross the border region: the Rio Grande, the Colorado River and their tributaries.
Under the terms of the treaty, the United States must allow Mexico to receive 1.5 million acre-feet, or 1.85 billion cubic meters, of water each year from the south-flowing waterway.
In return, Mexico would divert at least 350,000 acre-feet, or 431 million cubic meters, north toward the United States.
But years of drought have plunged Mexico into crisis. More than 75 percent of Mexico is experiencing “moderate to extreme” levels of drought, according to a 2024 report from the North American Drought Monitor, an intergovernmental organization.
This is the highest record since 2011. As a result, Mexican authorities have warned that they will not be able to meet the standards set out in the 80-year-old treaty.
But farmers in border states with Texas are pressuring U.S. lawmakers to take action, saying dwindling water supplies are hurting their businesses.
Texas Governor Greg Abbott (R) is among those who have vowed to champion the farmers’ cause.
“Mexico must be held accountable for its continued violations of longstanding water agreements,” Abbott said in a news release last month.
“Through a pattern of neglect, Texas farmers endure avoidable hardship and erosion of the agricultural viability of the Rio Grande Valley.”
Water “debt”?
This issue is a continuing source of cross-border conflict. In 2020, desperate farmers in Mexico went so far as to seize dams in the border state of Chihuahua to prevent “water payments” from flowing into the United States as their crops withered.
Mexico’s deficit under the 1944 Water Treaty has increased ever since, leading to what the United States considers a water “debt.”
The United States claims it is owed hundreds of millions of cubic meters of water over the past five-year cycle of the treaty.
But Monday wasn’t the first time President Trump has used economy-squeezing tariffs as a way to force compliance. A similar threat was made in April.
“Until Mexico abides by the treaty and gives Texas the water it owes, we will continue to escalate our consequences, including tariffs and potentially sanctions,” he wrote on Truth Social.
A month earlier, in March, the Trump administration also rejected Mexico’s request for a special supply of Colorado River water to the drought-stricken border city of Tijuana.
This is the first time the United States has taken such a step since the signing of the Water Treaty.
“Continuing shortages in Mexico’s water supply under the 1944 Water Sharing Treaty are devastating U.S. agriculture, particularly farmers in the Rio Grande Valley,” the U.S. State Department said in a statement.
“As a result, today, for the first time, the United States will reject Mexico’s non-treaty request for a special waterway to transport Colorado River water to Tijuana.”
In response, the Mexican government denied violating the 1944 treaty. Instead, it said it provided as much water as possible in the face of extreme water shortages.
“We have experienced three years of drought, but Mexico has fulfilled its obligations to the extent that water is available,” Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum said.
New deal, new dilemma
The two countries finally broke the deadlock on April 28 with a new agreement regulating the flow of water across their border.
According to the United States, the agreement required Mexico to immediately release water from international reservoirs.
Mexico also stipulated an increase in the amount of water flowing north from the Rio Grande until the end of the final five-year cycle, which expires in late October.
Mexico claimed to have met these requirements. But Texas lawmakers said the budget deficit is so large that some want to carry it over to the next five-year cycle.
Due to the 43-day government shutdown in the United States, it is unclear how much water passed across the border at the end of that five-year period. Only preliminary data is available.
Still, the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality (TCEQ), a state agency, petitioned the Trump administration to take action.
TCEQ Director Tonya Miller said in a November statement that “the economic losses caused by water delivery delays are irreversible.”
Meanwhile, in Mexico, the Sheinbaum administration faced domestic pressure to ease water restrictions on local farmers.
Just this month, farmers drove in tractors from the countryside to blockades in front of Mexico’s Congress in protest of a new bill that would turn off water taps.
River flows are not the only source of tension between the two countries. President Trump has pushed to crack down on cross-border drug trafficking and immigration, while President Sheinbaum has warned against U.S. threats to Mexican sovereignty.
But while Mr. Sheinbaum has managed to maintain a largely stable relationship with Mr. Trump, there are signs that their bond may be fraying.
“Let me say this,” Trump said last month. “I’m not happy with Mexico.”
