U.S. Trade Secretary Howard Lutnick didn’t mince words.
“If you’re going to depend on someone, you’re definitely better off being your number one ally,” he told an audience at the World Economic Forum in Davos, raving about globalization, European partners and the forum itself.
America’s allies in Europe, wary of further Russian aggression, burdened with supporting Ukraine, and facing an increasingly hostile world order, have come to the same realization.
US President Donald Trump’s plans for Denmark’s Greenland are forcing Europe to face uncomfortable questions about how much it needs Washington’s money, military power, and ultimately friendships.
From energy to defense, from Ukraine to trade, Europe depends on the United States. But the geopolitical turmoil flowing from the White House has led many European leaders to consider a previously unthinkable future of standing up straight on their feet.
One European diplomat told CNN that some U.S. officials frame relations with Europe as, “Do you want our help in Ukraine or do you want a strong NATO? Give us Greenland.”
“I think in Europe people think it’s the other way around. If you’re going forward with Greenland, no one is going to believe that the United States is going to protect Estonia.”
The issue at issue is:
President Trump has backed away from threatening tariffs to force U.S. control of Greenland, but the timing could not have been worse for Ukraine. As a result of intensive peace negotiations, Ukraine and the United States are nearing a final agreement on the so-called “Prosperity Plan” for post-war security and Ukraine’s post-war economic recovery.
Nevertheless, instead of rushing to join President Trump in Davos as Greenland threatened to overshadow the biggest war on mainland Europe in 80 years, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy initially opted to wait in Kyiv and deal with the growing energy crisis – even though President Trump said he would meet with Zelenskiy on Thursday. Sixty percent of Ukraine’s capital remained without power after a major Russian attack on Monday night, even as President Trump doubled down on his demand for Greenland.
The Ukraine crisis alone shows why Europe must tread carefully. President Zelenskiy warned this week that the consequences of Monday night’s attack “would have been even more severe” had the deployment of the Patriot interceptor missile fleet been delayed “even by one more day.”
Europe is accelerating efforts to reduce its military dependence on the United States. French President Emmanuel Macron claimed last week that France now meets two-thirds of Ukraine’s information needs, relieving it of the “overwhelming burden” of dependence on the United States. Europe has already spent a year getting used to life without direct supplies of US weapons to Ukraine, which are now being purchased by other NATO allies.
Diplomacy should also be considered. U.S. peace efforts have so far failed to persuade Russia to compromise, but Ukraine remains hopeful. “Can America do more?” Yes, it can. Zelenskiy told reporters this week that he has long argued that without the United States, Ukraine cannot have a credible postwar security.
Europe has lived under the security of America’s nuclear umbrella for decades. Under the NATO Mutual Defense Agreement, the United States has used the enormous destructive power of nuclear weapons to deter Russian aggression. Some critics believe it is no longer a concern for Russia.
Retired General Michel Yakovlev, former deputy commander of NATO’s European Command, told CNN: “The current administration is so beholden to President Putin that he doesn’t believe that the United States will use nuclear weapons.” “The American nuclear umbrella is a memory,” he said.
France and Britain also maintain nuclear weapons, and both Poland and Germany expressed interest in joining France’s nuclear umbrella last year, a move that will only accelerate the deterioration of relations between Europe and the United States. Even in Sweden, a new member of NATO, there is debate over whether Stockholm should revive its nuclear weapons program.
The case for European nuclear weapons is clear to some. “The trigger in Paris is much more sensitive than the trigger in Washington,” said Yakovlev, a former NATO general. “Berlin is more important to Paris than Washington.”
In fact, France has Europe’s only truly independent nuclear arsenal, and Britain’s Trident nuclear missiles are manufactured and stored in the United States, a fact that British Prime Minister Keir Starmer said this week limits its powers over the United States.
“Our nuclear deterrent is our greatest weapon,” he told reporters, adding, “We need to build good relations with the United States.”
Even today, European military power remains clearly American. Tens of thousands of U.S. military personnel are based or rotate in the European theater, and many of the U.S. military’s major assets are based there.
From stealth jets to nuclear submarines, “everything the United States actually has, we also have, except on a much different scale,” said Yakovlev, a former NATO general.
As a former European Union official put it, Europe’s militaries are now “bonsai armies”, shrinking and declining since the Cold War.
“We have to take into account what Donald Trump wants to say about security, because he is responsible for the security of the world,” Polish President Karol Nawloki said at Davos on Wednesday, noting that the United States funds 65% of NATO, while European countries only provide 35%.
NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte is well aware of dependence on Europe. He famously called Trump “Daddy” at a NATO meeting last year, but over the past year he has defended a conciliatory — some might even say flattering — attitude toward Trump.
European leaders who sat next to him ignored the importance of the United States to European security. Polish President Navrocki cited as evidence the examples of victories over Russia in Poland, Finland, Japan and even Afghanistan. Finnish President Alexander Stubbe expressed confidence that Europe could “unequivocally defend itself” without the United States, but said he trusted Washington to keep Finland’s dozens of U.S.-made jet fighters in the air during the conflict.
In a recent address to the military, French President Macron said that after a decade of what seemed unthinkable, the EU’s program to increase defense purchases is making “a ‘defense Europe’ a reality”.
Mr Macron has been the most vocal advocate of purchasing equipment from European suppliers, despite the industry’s current backlog and limited production capacity.
France is an anomaly in Europe, relying almost exclusively on its own defense industry. Thirteen European countries operate U.S.-made F-35 jets. It is one of the few fifth generation jet aircraft in the world. These countries are tied to U.S. manufacturers, U.S. software, and even munitions to keep these jets flying. Major U.S. anti-aircraft and rocket artillery systems, such as the PATRIOT and HIMARS systems, are also tied to U.S. supply lines, with few European alternatives.
But it was the Trump administration’s unpredictability that broke a long-standing taboo in Europe.
The European Union’s defense commissioner floated the idea of a 100,000-strong European Army in a speech in January, an idea that had previously been dismissed as unfeasible and politically untenable within the EU. He also called for the creation of a European Security Council to speed up and streamline military decision-making.
When the EU pulled out of cheap Russian gas in the wake of the 2022 invasion of Ukraine, U.S. hydrocarbons were an obvious way to keep the lights on.
In the first 11 months of 2025, U.S. liquid natural gas accounted for 58% of imports to the EU, up from 21% in 2021, according to an analysis by the Bruegel economic think tank.
Europe’s transition away from Russian gas will be a painful move in the winter of 2022, and the entire continent will not want to repeat it. Even as President Trump seeks to increase U.S. hydrocarbon interests in Venezuela, gas taps destined for Europe are a simple and perhaps effective tool that the White House can use as leverage.
Belgian Prime Minister Bart de Weber said of Europe’s prospects for dependence on the United States: “It’s one thing to be a happy subject and another to be a miserable slave.”
Some analysts say Europe’s large holdings of U.S. government bonds and stocks are a potential weapon if it wants to retaliate against Trump’s tariff threats.
“Europe owns Greenland, and it also owns a lot of U.S. Treasuries,” George Saravelos, head of currency research at Deutsche Bank, said in a note to clients this week. His argument is that European countries, which together hold about $8 trillion in U.S. bonds and stocks, theoretically have the power to discipline the dollar, one of the central pillars of U.S. economic dominance.
Still, while the U.S. stock market and dollar movements this week clearly indicate a “U.S. sell” mood, most experts expect Europe to resist. “There may be scope for de-escalation,” ING analysts said in a note on Wednesday.
European diplomats told CNN that Europe is not less afraid of the threat posed by Mr. Trump, but that the threat is now heightened. Losing support to Ukraine with last year’s 10% or 15% tariffs was probably not worth it, the diplomat said. Now, “we are talking about fundamental elements of the international world order.”
As the sun set over the Swiss mountains on Wednesday, the mood in Europe soured, making it clear that the continent’s options were bleak.
Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić said: “No one is laughing and no one is smiling because no one knows what will happen tomorrow.”
