KYIV, UKRAINE – Both Russia and Ukraine rely on Chinese-made components for their drones, jamming systems, and the fiber-optic cables connected to the drones to keep them from being jammed.
If China wants to end the Russia-Ukraine war, it can do so quickly and single-handedly by banning imports, according to one of the pioneers of drone warfare in Ukraine.
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“Almost all the parts are made in China,” Andrei Pronin, who runs a drone school in Kiev, told Al Jazeera. “China could cut off their side or our side.”
According to Ukrainian intelligence, the Chinese government supplies Moscow with four-fifths of the drones, electronic chips, and other dual-purpose goods that end up on the front lines and keep Russia’s war machine running.
The Foundation for Defense of Democracies, a think tank in Washington, D.C., says that although Ukraine is trying to wean itself from dependence on Chinese-made drones due to export restrictions imposed by the Chinese government, Chinese-made drones still make up a staggering 97% of its components.
US President Donald Trump is hopeful that Thursday’s summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping can change the situation.
On October 24, two days after canceling a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin and imposing sanctions on two Russian oil companies, President Trump said, “I want China to cooperate with us on the Russia issue.”
President Trump is scheduled to meet with President Xi Jinping in Seoul, South Korea, on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Summit. Their last meeting was held in Osaka, Japan in 2019.
President Zelenskyy hopes talks will ‘help us all’
The Chinese government maintains that it is officially neutral regarding the war and denies direct involvement in the Russia-Ukraine conflict. However, Russia serves as Moscow’s main political and economic supporter.
Observers understand that the Russian government is sharing information with the Chinese military about its use of drones, the vulnerabilities of Western-supplied weapons and the management of its airborne forces, as Beijing seeks to “return” Taiwan to its territory.
Meanwhile, as Western sanctions tighten, Beijing buys discounted oil, gas and raw materials, paying the Russian government tens of billions of dollars a year.
This is the weakness that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is targeting at President Trump in his meeting with Mr. Xi.
If President Trump can “get an agreement with China to cut Russian energy exports,” “I think that would help all of us,” he said Monday.
However, President Trump’s latest sanctions against Russia, imposed on state oil giant Rosneft and private company Lukoil, could inadvertently strengthen Beijing.
Both companies will be forced to sell overseas subsidiaries and scale back their roles in international projects, including several countries in the former Soviet Union’s Central Asia and Africa, which could be usurped by Chinese companies.
Mr. Xi’s role in ending the war is crucial, said Volodymyr Fesenko, director of the Kyiv-based Penta think tank.
“Russia cannot continue the war without financial support and economic cooperation with China,” he said. “China is Russia’s main economic resource.
“If[China]wanted to end this war, they would have achieved it very quickly,” he added. “China’s tough position in private and closed-door meetings with President Putin will be enough.”
But the Chinese government “has no intention or interest in giving President Trump any gifts,” Fesenko said.
During his first presidency, relations with China soured as the White House sought to curb China’s growing global influence and access to Western technology.
China and the United States have introduced tariffs on mutual exports after Beijing threatened to cut off trade in critical minerals and Washington promised to curb technology transfer. The Russia-Ukraine war is unlikely to dominate the summit’s agenda, as President Trump and President Xi have bigger prizes to take as both countries face a trade war.
“Freeze the war”
At the same time, Beijing is investing heavily in new infrastructure and increasing its economic influence in Eastern Europe, a former stronghold of Moscow.
“The escalation of the war and its expansion into Europe are against China’s interests,” Fesenko said.
But the United States and China may want to keep the war simmering or freezing, without allowing Moscow or Kiev to achieve a decisive victory, argued Kiev-based analyst Iger Tishkevich.
He said the US would not benefit from Russia’s “overwhelming victory” as the Kremlin would undoubtedly seek the role of “third world leader”.
However, neither China nor the United States will benefit from a total defeat by Russia, as China is concerned about instability along its northern and northwest borders.
“Washington is active in freezing the war,” Tishkevich said. “I wouldn’t be surprised if the Chinese government became more aggressive in the same direction.”
If frozen, war could reignite once Russia recovers economically and accumulates enough resources.
To avoid that, Kiev will look to build new and strengthen existing partnerships, especially with the European Union and its member states, as well as countries such as Turkiye and Pakistan, which have friendly relations with Beijing.
And Putin still has plenty of incentives to offer Trump.
Proposals have been reported to build infrastructure for the Northern Sea Route, which would shorten shipping of goods from Asia to Europe by weeks.
Moscow also considered joint projects to sell Russian natural gas to Europe, develop oil and gas fields in Russia’s Far East, and supply rare earths vital to big U.S. technology companies.
In a post-war environment, Putin could offer Russian expertise in processing spent nuclear fuel from U.S. power plants and also propose a nuclear security agreement that includes non-proliferation.
Tishkevich said nonproliferation is “the only area where Russia is ‘on par’ with the United States.”
