WASHINGTON, DC – Hours after the United States announced the abduction of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, Israeli politician Yair Lapid warned Tehran that “the Iranian regime should pay close attention to what is happening in Venezuela.”
Maduro’s forced removal from power comes less than a week after US President Donald Trump met with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and threatened to launch a new attack on Iran.
Recommended stories
list of 3 itemsend of list
Washington’s tensions with Caracas and Tehran have different roots and dynamics, but analysts say President Trump’s actions against Maduro make war with Iran more likely.
Jamal Abdi, president of the National Iranian American Council (NIAC), said: “This new illegal act destroys all stability and makes war more likely.”
“Whether President Trump becomes obsessed with ‘surgical’ regime change or gives Prime Minister Netanyahu a US prison sentence for similar actions, it is hard not to see how this will embold many actors pushing for a new war with Iran.”
He added that Maduro’s abduction could prompt Iran to do “something that triggers military action,” such as building its own military deterrent or a pre-emptive strike by the United States or Israel.
Negal Mortazavi, a senior fellow at the Center for International Policy, also said that U.S. actions in Venezuela demonstrate Trump’s extremist agenda and further diminish the prospects for diplomacy.
“What I see and hear from Tehran is that they are not interested in negotiations with the Trump administration that would indicate that they want complete surrender,” Mortazavi told Al Jazeera.
“Therefore, there is not much of a chance for diplomacy at the moment, which then paves the way for the opposite path of conflict. Right now, Israel, Iran and the United States are on the path to potential conflict.”
Abdi echoed that assessment. “This action strengthens all doubts and suspicions about the intentions of the United States and gives further credence to those in Iran who say that engaging with the United States is futile and that developing a nuclear deterrent is essential,” he told Al Jazeera.
Iran-Venezuela Alliance
The U.S. raid that abducted Maduro and brought him to the United States came after months of escalating rhetoric from President Trump against the Venezuelan government.
U.S. officials have accused Mr. Maduro of leading a drug cartel, and Mr. Trump and his aides have increasingly asserted that the United States has a right to access Venezuela’s vast oil reserves.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio has also highlighted Maduro’s ties to Iran, accusing without evidence that Caracas is providing the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah with a foothold in the Western Hemisphere.
President Maduro is a close ally of Iran, and the two countries, both subject to strict sanctions, are deepening trade ties estimated to be worth billions of dollars.
So with Maduro gone, Iran’s small network of allies could shrink even further following the fall of Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad and the weakening of Lebanon’s Hezbollah.
The Iranian government immediately condemned the U.S. attack on Venezuela and called on the United Nations to intervene and stop the “illegal invasion.”
“The United States’ military aggression against an independent state that is a member of the United Nations is a grave violation of regional and international peace and security,” Iran’s Foreign Ministry said in a statement.
“The consequences would have repercussions for the entire international system, exposing the UN Charter-based order to further erosion and destruction.”
On Saturday, Mr. Rubio suggested that Mr. Maduro’s abduction was a message to all of his rivals in Washington during the Trump era.
“When he says he’s going to do something, when he says he’s going to address a problem, he means it,” the top US diplomat told reporters.
However, Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei became even more defiant after the US attack on Caracas.
“We will not surrender to the enemy,” Khamenei wrote in a social media post. “We will bring the enemy to his knees.”
President Trump’s threat
Last week, President Trump invited Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to Florida and threatened to bomb Iran again if it rebuilds its missile and nuclear programs.
“Now we’re hearing that Iran is trying to rise again, and if that’s the case, we’re going to have to defeat Iran,” Trump said. “We’re going to beat the crap out of them. We’re going to beat the hell out of them.”
Israel launched a war against Iran in June, killing the country’s top military commander, several nuclear scientists and hundreds of civilians.
The United States also participated in the attack, bombing three of Iran’s major nuclear facilities.
Although President Trump has frequently repeated that the U.S. attack “annihilated” Iran’s nuclear program and celebrated the war as a success, Iran’s system of governance survived the attack.
The Iranian government responded to Israel with a barrage of hundreds of rockets, dozens of which penetrated the country’s layered air defenses, allowing Iranian forces to continue firing until the final moments of the war, when a cease-fire took effect.
Some critics have argued that regime change was and remains Israel’s goal in Iran, and President Trump appears increasingly supportive of that goal.
President Trump on Friday warned that the United States is ready to attack Iran “with all our might” if the Iranian government kills protesters amid sporadic but ongoing anti-government demonstrations across the country.
He made the same threat again later Sunday. “If they start killing people like they have in the past, they will be hit very hard by America,” the US president said.
So could the US carry out Venezuelan-style government beheadings in Iran?
NIAC’s Abdi pointed out that Israel had already tried to kill the country’s top leaders, including President Massoud Pezeshkian, in June.
President Trump has also repeatedly threatened to assassinate Khamenei and acknowledged that Israeli authorities were trying to “eliminate” the supreme leader during the war.
“Iranian officials have said they are planning accordingly to ensure that the killing or removal of senior leaders does not paralyze or collapse the regime,” Abdi said.
“Conducting a ‘snatch’ operation against Iran would be far more troubling given the US national interests and ability to retaliate against personnel.”
Venezuela without Maduro
In Venezuela, too, the removal of President Maduro has not led to the collapse of the regime, at least so far.
On Sunday, Vice President Delcy Rodríguez, currently acting president of Venezuela, stressed that Maduro remains the country’s sole leader and condemned the US attack.
She also suggested that Israel was involved in the abduction of Maduro, a vocal critic of the US ally.
“Governments around the world are shocked that the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela has become the victim and target of this type of attack, which undoubtedly has a Zionist dimension,” Rodriguez said.
In response, President Trump threatened Venezuela’s acting president, telling The Atlantic that he would pay a “very high price, perhaps even a higher price than Maduro,” if he did not comply with U.S. demands.
Therefore, the US president’s plan to “run” Venezuela and seize its oil is not yet complete and will probably require further military action.
“I do not believe that Venezuela can become a ‘one and done’ or ‘in and out’ situation quickly, which is President Trump’s favorite model. His brand is to engage in rapid displays of force, not forever wars,” Mortazavi said.
He cited rapid operations ordered by President Trump, including the killing of Islamic State (ISIS) leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi in 2019, the assassination of Iran’s top commander Qasem Soleimani in 2020, and the attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities in June.
“Most Americans are tired of forever wars, especially in the Middle East, so the Trump administration knows it can no longer sell forever wars to the American people,” Mortazavi said.
However, President Trump has already hinted at the possibility of a ground invasion of Venezuela.
“We’re not afraid to put our boots on the ground,” he said. “Whatever we say, we are going to make sure the country is run properly. Ours is not in vain.”
Abdi said long-term U.S. involvement in Venezuela could indirectly avert war with Iran.
He told Al Jazeera: “It is also possible that the US is stuck ‘running’ Venezuela and cannot afford to wage another Iran war or support Israel in one.”
“After the US invaded Iraq in 2003, Iran was next on the list, but we know what happened there and President Trump may not want to say ‘mission accomplished’ just yet.”
oil question
Still, some critics, including Republican U.S. Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, argue that if the United States succeeds in gaining control of Venezuela’s oil resources, it could offset disruptions to energy markets from a possible war with Iran.
“The next obvious observation is that by removing President Maduro, this is an obvious move to control Venezuela’s oil supplies and ensure stability for the next apparent Iranian regime change war,” Green wrote in Saturday’s X.
About 20% of the world’s oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran could close in the event of a full-scale war.
Abdi said Venezuelan oil could theoretically “provide some cushion” against declining exports from the Gulf region.
“But this means a lot can go right for the United States in Venezuela, and it’s probably too early to tell.”
