WASHINGTON (AP) — President Donald Trump 2026 promised to be a bumper year for economic growth, but instead it started off like this: unemployment,rise gasoline price and further uncertainty about America’s future.
in him state of the union address Less than two weeks ago, the Republican president confidently told the nation that “the economy is stronger than ever.” The latest data on jobs, pump prices, and the stock market suggest that President Trump’s roar is starting to sound much more like a whimper.
The gap between the boom Trump predicted and the erratic results he produced could set the tone for this year’s midterm elections as he seeks to protect his party’s majorities in the House and Senate. together with trump Tariff drama underway, war in iran Inflation concerns about oil and gas suddenly arose. It’s still early in the year for the White House, and stronger growth is on the way.
There are no signs of an employment boom.
“Wow! America’s golden age has arrived!!!” President Trump posted on social media on February 11, after the monthly employment report showed that the number of employed people increased by 130,000 in January.
Since then, the job market has evaporated in an alarming way.
Friday’s employment report showed that employment fell by 92,000 people in February. Figures for January and December have been revised downwards, with 17,000 job losses in December. Monthly data can be volatile, but trends are emerging that indicate persistent weakness. Without the health care sector, the economy would have lost about 202,000 jobs since President Trump took office in January 2025. Still, the Trump administration has pointed to the increase in construction jobs outside of the housing sector as an indicator of future job growth.
President Trump often boasts that jobs will go to U.S.-born people, not immigrants. But the latest report pokes holes in some of that argument.
The unemployment rate for people born in the United States rose from 4.4% to 4.7% in the past 12 months. This means that a larger percentage of the people President Trump said would get a job thanks to immigration crackdowns are actually looking for work.
pump prices are rising
“Reducing energy costs is one of the most important actions we can take to lower prices for American consumers,” President Trump said in a February speech in Texas, just before the United States and Israel attacked Iran. “Because when you reduce the cost of energy, you actually reduce it, it just reduces the cost of everything.”
The president has repeatedly told Americans that keeping gas prices low is the key to beating inflation. He spoke about the decline, citing figures that were well below the national average, to reassure the public that it was becoming cheaper to drive.
but, attack on iran The plan, which began on February 28, has shattered that narrative for now. According to AAA, prices have increased 19% in the past month to a national average of $3.45. Investment bank Goldman Sachs warned in an analyst note that if oil prices continue to rise, inflation could rise to 3% by year-end from 2.4% in January.
The regime is banking on plans to curb rising energy prices, essentially betting that the conflict will soon end or that the regime will succeed in getting more tankers through the Strait of Hormuz.
“Despite the incredible progress that U.S. and allied forces have made against Iran’s terrorist regime, the president has been clear about the short-term disruption caused by Operation Epic Fury,” White House Deputy Press Secretary Khush Desai said in a statement. “But the long-term trend is clear: President Trump’s economic policies continue to generate strong private sector jobs, investment, and economic growth that are driving America’s recovery.”
Stock prices are out of the high range
“We set an unprecedented record for the Dow to hit 50,000,” President Trump said Thursday at the White House.
This oft-repeated talking point has become obsolete. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, President Trump’s favorite measure of success, has fallen 5% over the past month. Stocks have been rising during his presidential term, just as they were when Democrat Joe Biden was president. If the war with Iran ends and companies can earn solid profits next year and beyond, the recent decline could be reversed. But the recent decline should be a warning sign, as the administration emphasizes the importance of getting more people invested in the stock market through vehicles such as “Trump Accounts” for children.
The stock market has become a barometer of how people feel about the economy, with stock investors tending to be more confident and investors with no money in the market more pessimistic.
Joanna Hsu, director of consumer research at the University of Michigan, said sentiment rose “significantly” in February among people who owned stocks, but “that was completely offset by the decline in consumers who didn’t own stocks.”
Productivity is increasing, but workers are not reaping the benefits.
President Trump can point to the fact that the economy has become more productive, creating more value for every hour worked, as a victory. This is a positive sign for long-term growth in the US and reflects the country’s strong technology sector.
Labor productivity in the corporate sector rose by 2.8% in the fourth quarter of last year, the Labor Ministry said on Thursday. The challenge, however, is that the benefits may not be passed on to workers in the form of higher wages, as workers’ income share fell to an all-time low last year, said Mike Konczal, senior director of policy research at the Economic Security Project, a nonprofit affiliated with Liberal Economic Affairs.
The economy grew at a faster pace under the Biden administration.
“Under the Biden administration, the United States suffered from a nightmare of stagflation, which means low growth and high inflation. This is a recipe for misery, failure, and decline,” President Trump said at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, in January.
The scoreboards tell a very different story, with Biden’s performance in 2024 looking better than Trump’s last year. The US economy grew at a pace of 2.8% last year under the Biden administration, compared to 2.2% in 2025 under the Trump administration.
When it comes to inflation, the main measure used by the Federal Reserve is the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index. In 2024 and 2025, it was 2.6%.
Mr. Trump is betting that he will do a better job on economics than Mr. Biden. But while he avoided the inflation spike that plagued Biden’s presidency, he has not delivered strong growth or job growth.
