The start of the new year was unusual. A deadly military operation by the US military on Venezuelan soil. the abduction of the country’s longtime leader Nicolas Maduro;
But in the three weeks since the operation, which was widely denounced as an affront to international law and a possible salvo against President Donald Trump’s administration’s stated goal of “preeminence” in the Western Hemisphere, only the vague framework of Washington’s plans for the South American country has emerged.
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Meanwhile, relative calm continues in Venezuela, coupled with deep-seated fears about what will happen next, analysts told Al Jazeera. Faults in the country’s leadership remain active, and the situation could change depending on how President Trump and his administration proceed.
Here’s what’s going on and what’s next.
“They’re operating with a gun to their head.”
President Maduro has been in a New York prison since the January 3 operation, awaiting trial on charges of drug trafficking and so-called “narco-terrorism” conspiracy.
However, many of the circumstances that led to his abduction continue to exist. The bulk of U.S. military equipment remains deployed off the coast of Venezuela. A blockade on US-sanctioned oil tankers remains in place. The Trump administration has vowed to continue attacking suspected drug-smuggling vessels in the Caribbean, although it has not ruled out a future land operation in Venezuela.
“What we are seeing is not a fully formed (US) strategy, but an evolving strategy,” Francesca Emanuele, senior international policy associate at the Center for Economic Policy Research, told Al Jazeera.
Mr. Trump initially promised to “run” Venezuela, but hinted that he might seek to form an opposition-led government. He continued to downplay proposals to involve the opposition after his meeting with Maria Colina Machado last week, focusing instead on coordinating with interim president and former Maduro vice president Delcy Rodríguez.
The president’s early policies, including his first direct phone call with Rodriguez and sending the CIA director to Caracas, have unabashedly emphasized U.S. oil access to the country.
In it, Trump aims to establish “control mechanisms” that “rely on fear, including sanctions, oil leverage, and the threat of new force,” said Begum Zor, a researcher at City, University of London.
“What has emerged is a strategy of remote coercion rather than governance, forcing post-Maduro leaders to comply with U.S. demands, especially regarding oil access.”
Or, as Emmanuel said, “The Venezuelan government is operating with a gun to its head, and it cannot be excluded from serious analysis.”
Emphasis on oil
In this context, the regime took some early steps towards accessing Venezuelan oil. Just days after Maduro’s abduction, Washington and Caracas announced plans to export up to $2 billion worth of oil stuck in Venezuelan ports due to the U.S. economic blockade.
Last week, the United States announced its first $500 million resource sale, and Rodriguez said Caracas received $300 million in proceeds. He said the funds would be used to “stabilize” the foreign exchange market.
But Phil Gunson, a senior analyst at the International Crisis Group specializing in the Andean region, said the current plans for the U.S. to acquire and sell Venezuelan oil remain unclear. Venezuela’s history of corruption and patronage leaves some of the more pressing questions unanswered.
Meanwhile, US lawmakers called on Trump administration officials to “immediately disclose any financial interests” they have with the companies involved.
“Selling oil is easy,” he told Al Jazeera. “But who decides how that money is spent? What standards are used to manage the purchased goods and services, and under whose direction?”
Meanwhile, President Trump’s vision for U.S. companies to access and exploit Venezuela’s vast oil reserves faces headwinds from market realities, even as Venezuela’s Congress has begun debating changes to its hydrocarbon law that would allow more foreign investment in the country’s oil industry.
Just six days after Maduro’s abduction, President Trump invited 17 oil companies to the White House to discuss investments in Venezuela, promising to meet them with “at least $100 billion.” But even in the friendly crowd, top industry leaders pointed to a list of major reforms that need to be made before the country can be considered investable.
Meanwhile, President Trump has vowed to ensure the safety of American companies operating in the country, including reportedly considering the use of private defense contractors. It has become a little more transparent.
Zorlu explained that the regime’s heavy-handed approach to Venezuela “creates a central contradiction: A coercive model designed to secure U.S. control over Venezuelan oil could ultimately undermine the investment climate needed to extract that oil at scale.”
How did Venezuela’s leaders react?
Crisis Group’s Ganzon said the atmosphere on the streets of Caracas remained “tense but calm.”
“There is an unusually active presence on the streets of the colectivos capital,” Ganson said, referring to pro-government militias often deployed to suppress dissent and the DAE’s elite military counterintelligence unit (DGCIM), which appears to be aimed at sending a message that political opening is not in the cards, at least for now.
“No one is celebrating or protesting in the streets, and most people are in a ‘wait and see’ mentality.”
Meanwhile, as Ganzon said, there has been little public discussion from the “three power centers” that control the Venezuelan government. The military is led by Minister of Defense Padrino López. Interior Minister Diosdado Cabello controls much of the police and intelligence services, has influence within the military and “can also call on colectivos.”
Amid the relatively calm reaction in the weeks since the US operation, “an administration that is normally outspoken in its condemnation of US imperialism is clearly biting its tongue to avoid provoking Trump and Rubio (US Secretary of State),” analyst Emanuele explained.
Mr. Rodriguez has shifted from his early defiant (if histrionic) stance in public to a more conciliatory tone toward the Trump administration. This includes the removal of Alex Saab, a longtime Maduro ally and a regular target of the United States, as Minister of Industry and National Production.
Rodriguez has been a vocal supporter of plans to open up the country’s oil industry to foreign investors, as the government begins a gradual release of political prisoners arrested in the crackdown on opposition parties over Maduro’s claims of 2024 election victory.
The harshest condemnation of the U.S. actions remains with Cabello and other officials, including Foreign Minister Ivan Gil, but “even those statements have been significantly moderated,” Emanuele said.
As an example, she pointed to President Trump’s insistence that Cuba, a longtime ally, no longer receive oil or financial aid from Venezuela. In response, Venezuela’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs reaffirmed its support for Havana, but declined to directly mention future oil plans.
“This suggests a calculated effort to leave room for maneuver under US coercion,” Emanuele said.
“And this is important because this appears to be one of the conditions that the Trump administration intends to impose on Venezuela in exchange for continuing on the ‘negotiate’ path.”
What kind of faults remain?
Analysts have warned that the early compliance seen from Venezuelan leaders should not be seen as stability, especially in a country where officials have relied on a vast patronage system for years.
Gunson explained that the Rodriguez brothers “could be ousted at any time if the gun-toting clique wanted to do so.”
Notably, like Mr. Maduro, Mr. Padrino and Mr. Cabello remain indicted in the United States with bounties on them.
“Right now, it’s not in their interest. They seem to be operating in close coordination with civilians,” he said. “The situation may change if their fundamental interests are threatened, especially if a political transition is attempted.”
“They have to worry that the United States could intervene again to capture them, or that the political opening agreed with the Rodriguez brothers could lead to their prosecution either in Venezuela or in the United States,” he said.
There is widespread suspicion that Mr. Maduro’s abduction required the cooperation of at least some of his inner circle, but it remains impossible to gauge how deeply distrust runs deep within Caracas.
The Guardian reported on Thursday, citing four sources, that Delcy Rodriguez had previously promised U.S. officials that she would cooperate in ousting Maduro. The newspaper reported that sources were adamant that Rodriguez “did not agree to actively assist the United States in overthrowing” Maduro and insisted that the abduction of the longtime leader was not a pre-orchestrated coup.
Reuters also reported that U.S. officials had been in contact with Cabello in the months before the operation, but it was unclear whether they had discussed future governance.
“We cannot clearly see the internal calculations between the civilian leadership and the military, or the rifts within the military itself, or where the loyalties of the security establishment as a whole ultimately lie,” researcher Zorlu said.
Beyond possible fault lines between civilian authorities and security agencies, he added, discord could also cut into “regime strategy” and whether some within the government view U.S. accommodations as an “existential threat.”
“In the coming months, it is likely that some fractures that are not yet visible will become apparent,” she says.
