Russia is at a difficult juncture. By mid-January, President Vladimir Putin’s “special military operation” in Ukraine will have lasted longer than the war on the Eastern Front, which began with Germany’s invasion of the Soviet Union in June 1941 and ended with the fall of Berlin in May 1945.
President Putin is famously obsessed with World War II, and his official veneration of the Soviet Union’s victory over Nazi Germany is part of the ideological glue that holds the Russian state together. Putin’s Russia even saw the rehabilitation of Joseph Stalin, the communist dictator who led a ruthless purge in the 1930s before leading the country in what is known as the Great Patriotic War.
But nearly four years after the all-out invasion of Ukraine, a decisive victory over Kiev has eluded Kremlin leaders. Russia controls about 20% of Ukraine’s territory, the war is estimated to have cost the Kremlin more than 1 million casualties, and, in perhaps the greatest insult to Putin’s war aims, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy remains in power.
But as the year draws to a close, Putin is confident that time is on his side and that victory is inevitable. In an interview with India Today ahead of a summit with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi in December, Putin said Russia would “in any case liberate Donbass and Novorossia by military or other means,” doubling down on demands for Russia to seize all areas of Ukraine it claims, including areas it has not been able to capture by force.
And that bloody idea seems to be a negotiation strategy. Putin will certainly be aware that U.S. President Donald Trump is determined to reach an agreement on Ukraine and that the Russian leader has done everything in his power to extract maximum benefit from U.S. aspirations to end the conflict.
At a year-end press conference, the Russian president said Russia was ready and willing to “end the conflict by peaceful means” but couldn’t help but boast that Russian troops were “advancing on the entire front.”
And a few days later, in his traditional televised New Year’s Eve address, Putin called on Russians to “support our heroes” fighting in Ukraine, adding: “We believe in you and in our victory!”
The reason for President Putin’s arrogance is clear. First, after President Trump took office in January, Kremlin leaders were able to watch as the once unified Western Front supporting Kiev showed serious cracks.
In February, U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance surprised European leaders with a speech at the Munich Security Conference condemning America’s transatlantic allies. The spectacle was followed by a public dressing-down of Zelensky by Trump and Vance in the Oval Office.
A few months later, another public relations coup against the Kremlin occurred with a summit between Putin and Trump in Anchorage, Alaska. Although the summit did not lead to a thaw in U.S.-Russian relations, it was more than just a photo opportunity for Putin. The Russian president could have more time to play in the relentless war of attrition against Ukraine.
But Putin’s apparent reluctance to take peace efforts more seriously since Anchorage ultimately tested Trump’s patience. An invitation to the second U.S.-Russia bilateral summit in Budapest failed, and the Trump administration imposed sanctions on Russia’s two largest oil companies. The US president, who often praises Putin, expressed his dissatisfaction with the Russian president.
Still, enough ice between Washington and Moscow appears to have thawed to move forward with an unconventional US diplomatic effort led by Trump’s former business associate Steve Witkoff and his son-in-law Jared Kushner.
After Mr. Witkov and Mr. Kushner’s visit to the Kremlin in early December, there was a flurry of high-level diplomacy involving Mr. Zelensky and European leaders, with much discussion about finalizing the details of a potential deal.
By mid-December, Trump’s outlook was optimistic, and he told reporters, “We’re closer to a peace deal now than we’ve ever been.”
But at year’s end, Putin still appears to have a role to play in potentially breaking the deal. President Zelensky had an audience with President Trump at Mar-a-Lago over the weekend to discuss a revised peace deal, but the Kremlin leader himself called the American president and booked the meeting.
And Russia’s position on peace talks now appears to be hardening. In a conversation with Trump on Monday, Putin informed the U.S. side about Ukraine’s alleged drone attack on the Valdai residence in the Novgorod region, according to a readout from Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov to Russian state radio.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov also sent a telegram expressing his anger at the attack claims, which President Zelenskyy denied as a “complete fabrication”, saying that “Russia’s negotiating position will be revised” as the peace process progresses.
Some Kremlin observers are skeptical that Putin would accept a deal that crosses red lines. The contours of such an agreement have not yet emerged, but the Russian side has long been clear about the main issues.
Most recently, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Sergei Ryabkov reiterated in an interview with ABC News that Russia will not surrender any Ukrainian territory it claims and will not implement NATO’s boot on Ukrainian soil after the war ends.
“Mr. Lavrov, Mr. Ushakov,[Kremlin Spokesman Dmitry]Peskov, and Mr. Putin himself (who has clearly stepped up engagement with the military, doubling down on “we will achieve our goals”) say that the revised plan is completely unacceptable. “Yet Washington continues to engage with Kiev, touting ‘progress’ that Moscow considers illusory,” Russian political observer Tatyana Stanovaya wrote in X after a recent meeting. Mar-a-Lago.
“This is exactly what Russia is talking about regarding the drone attack on Putin’s residence. It is a powerful ‘pound on the table’ to finally make the West hear that the current peace negotiations are moving in a direction that is completely unacceptable to Russia and threatens to derail the emerging US-Ukraine framework,” she said.
Putin has Trump’s ear, but he has not yet succeeded in drowning out these opposing voices. The big question is how confident the Kremlin is in smoke and mirrors.
In November, President Putin, wearing camouflage, visited a military command post at an undisclosed location, where the commander-in-chief of Russia’s armed forces, General Valery Gerasimov, claimed that Russian troops were in control of the eastern town of Kupiansk.
Just a few weeks later, President Putin was elevated by President Zelensky. President Zelenskiy posted a video of his visit to Kupiansk wearing a bulletproof vest and standing in front of a pockmarked and hyper-geolocated sign. Later, when asked about the video at a year-end press conference, President Putin took a negative attitude, deriding the Ukrainian president as a “talented artist” involved in theater.
The mood in Russia is difficult to gauge, and criticizing the military can land you in jail, but the economy remains depressed despite slowing growth and Ukraine’s strikes against Russia’s energy infrastructure, the linchpin of Moscow’s economic power.
However, President Putin’s unwavering grip on power gives him influence in any peace process. Russia’s regional cemeteries may continue to swell with war dead, but no parliament can pressure him, no political opposition appears to threaten him, and an apparently reluctant public means he will continue the war with Ukraine.
