US President Donald Trump on Monday insisted that a deal to end Russia’s nearly four-year war with Ukraine is “closer than ever” after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky met with European leaders and US diplomats in the German capital Berlin.
During two days of high-level talks in Berlin, diplomats discussed how to protect Ukraine from future Russian military threats, among other concerns.
Before the Berlin talks, President Zelensky said Kiev was willing to abandon its NATO ambitions in exchange for legally binding security. Russia used NATO expansion as one of the pretexts to justify its 2022 invasion.
But European leaders say key differences between Moscow and Kiev over territorial disputes remain unresolved.
Is a cease-fire agreement finally coming to fruition?
What was discussed at the Berlin conference?
The Berlin meeting was attended by US special envoy Steve Witkoff and President Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner, as well as key leaders from France, Germany, the UK and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO).
In a statement after the meeting, European leaders said they were committed to working with the United States to provide Ukraine with “robust security,” including through the European-led “Multinational Force Ukraine” supported by the United States.
They said the unit’s activities include “activities within Ukraine,” as well as supporting the reconstruction of Ukraine’s military, air security, and safe seas. They said Ukraine’s military should remain at peacetime levels of 800,000 soldiers.
Two U.S. officials interviewed by Reuters described the proposed safeguards as “like Article V,” referring to NATO’s Article V mutual defense pledge, which means an attack on one is an attack on all.
President Zelensky told reporters in Berlin that Kiev needs a clear understanding of the security it will provide before making decisions on territorial control under a potential peace deal. He added that any guarantees must include effective ceasefire monitoring.
Ukrainian officials are cautious about what form those guarantees will take. After gaining independence in 1991, Kiev enjoyed U.S. and European-backed security, but this failed to prevent Russian invasions in 2014 (Crimea) and 2022.
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said the US provided “considerable” security during the Berlin talks.
“What the United States has put on the table here in Berlin, in terms of legal and material guarantees, is really substantial,” Merz said at a joint press conference with Zelensky.
Russia has not yet commented on the proposal.
What is President Trump saying about the war between Russia and Ukraine?
“We have tremendous support from European leaders. They also want to end (the war),” Trump told reporters on Monday.
“We have had many discussions with Russian President (Vladimir) Putin, and I think we are now closer than ever. We will see what we can do.”
Since taking power in January, the U.S. president has been working to end the war and pressing Ukraine to make concessions.
Several high-level talks and draft peace proposals, including an Alaska summit between Trump and Putin in August, have failed to end Europe’s deadliest war since World War II.
What did President Zelenskyy say?
In a post on X on Monday, President Zelenskyy mentioned the meeting between Witkov and Kushner, writing: “If the meeting had taken place sooner, the progress would have been even greater.”
“Of course, we have a different position from Russia regarding the territory. This must be recognized and openly discussed. I believe that the American side, as a mediator, will propose various measures to find at least some form of agreement,” President Zelenskiy wrote.
“We will do our best to find clear answers to questions about security guarantees, territory, compensation for the reconstruction of Ukraine, etc. It is necessary to understand the sources of this funding.”
Ukraine has previously suggested it may abandon its ambitions to join the NATO military alliance in exchange for firm security from the West. The Trump administration has opposed Kiev’s membership in NATO.
He added: “We are talking about security guarantees, and before we take action on the battlefield, both military and civilians need to have a clear understanding of what the security guarantees will be. This is very important.”
It is unclear what specific security benefits Ukraine will receive and which countries will contribute to providing them.
Al Jazeera’s Audrey McAlpine reported from Kyiv that President Zelensky addressed the Dutch parliament on Tuesday and said that Ukraine and Europe were working on a document that could “stop the killing,” adding that “every detail matters” and “every detail represents a human life.”
Mr. McAlpine said Mr. Zelensky echoed the words of President Trump, who has repeated the phrase “stop the killing” over and over again.
“What he’s talking about is documents. We know that before this meeting in Berlin, there were three documents in circulation. Right now, from Zelenskiy’s comments, it looks like there are five documents, the details of which are still waiting to be gathered. But certainly, it’s an evolving situation, there are a lot of difficult and sensitive parts, and we’re still waiting to get more information,” McAlpine added.
Is a ceasefire really “closer than ever”?
Experts doubt it.
Keir Giles, a Russia military expert at the Chatham House think tank in London, told Al Jazeera: “Trump has repeatedly insisted that a peace deal is close if there is no sustainable deal.”
Another foreign policy expert, Natalie Tocci, believes that “the chances of a ceasefire at this point are very low.”
“I think we are much more likely to remain in a situation of ongoing war,” Tocci, director of the International Association of Nations, told Al Jazeera. He added that this is because territorial and security issues remain unresolved.
Russia controls nearly 20% of eastern Ukraine and has slowly expanded its territory as the Ukrainian military has weakened due to desertions and reduced military aid. Moscow annexed Ukraine’s Crimea region in 2014.
“It is probably not possible for Ukrainians to voluntarily withdraw from these areas unless we also see the withdrawal of Russian troops from the other side,” Tocci told Al Jazeera.
Al Jazeera’s McAlpine also said that one of the main issues is territorial disputes.
He added that President Zelensky has recently become firmer in his stance not to abandon Ukraine’s territory of Donbas (eastern part of the country). “We know that the Russian side wants to control the entire Donbas region. Ukraine will want to draw the line at the current situation,” McAlpine said.
“According to recent opinion polls here in Ukraine, 75 percent of Ukrainians refuse to withdraw from the Donbass region.” They support the idea of freezing the current front.
Chatham House’s Mr Giles said parallel negotiations were still taking place between the US and Ukraine, and between Ukraine and European countries. He added that there is no clear evidence that these efforts are fully coordinated or coordinated from a strategic perspective.
“There is no guarantee that anything agreed will be accepted by Russia, and there is reason to believe that everything agreed is achievable,” Giles added.
“The key elements to make a ceasefire possible remain exactly the same as before. Russia will only agree to a cessation of fighting if it feels it has more to gain from a ceasefire than it has to gain by continuing to attack Ukraine,” he said.
What will end the war in Ukraine?
“The answer to what will end the fighting is the same as it always has been: Russia is defeated and Ukraine is defeated and submitted,” Giles said.
Mr Giles explained that Russia and Ukraine could not agree to a ceasefire on the same terms because their war objectives were incompatible and they were “unprecedented in terms of modern warfare”.
President Trump has repeatedly agreed to many of the Kremlin’s demands, including territorial concessions. His original 28-point plan to end the war included a provision for amnesty for Russian war crimes. President Zelenskiy has expressed his opposition to this.
Mr Giles said Russia felt it was at a disadvantage following the revised 28-point plan following opposition from European leaders.
“Russia will accept a cease-fire agreement only if it is free to violate it and believes it will help restart the war at a time of its choosing,” he added.
