The bill was filed after an anonymous Polymarket user made more than $500,000 by taking the position that the U.S. would attack Iran hours before it did.
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Published March 5, 2026
Two Democratic U.S. senators are planning to introduce a bill that would ban members of Congress, the president, and the vice president from contracting for trading events on prediction market platforms such as Calci and Polymarket.
According to CNBC, which first reported the story, Sens. Jeff Merkley, a Democrat from Oregon, and Amy Klobuchar, a Democrat from Minnesota, plan to introduce a bill Thursday that would ban members from trading.
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If the bill passes, other members of the executive branch would also be restricted from profiting on the platform and would be subject to fines of at least $10,000 for each violation.
The bill also stipulates that violators must repay any profits made from the transaction.
The bill was enacted as prediction markets gained attention after a small number of anonymous bettors profited on a position that the United States would attack Iran. The bet was placed within 24 hours of the strike on Polymarket, a platform where traders can buy and sell anonymously.
Just a few weeks ago, just hours before Maduro’s abduction by the United States, another user made more than $400,000 on Polymarket betting on Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro’s removal from office.
“At the same time that prediction markets have experienced significant growth, reports of fraud have also increased. This bill strengthens the Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s ability to go after bad actors and provides rules to prevent those with sensitive government and policy information from abusing that access for financial gain,” Klobuchar said in a statement shared with Al Jazeera.
Prediction markets allow users to bet on future events, from election outcomes and financial policy decisions to sports matches and military attacks.
“When public officials use non-public information to win bets, it’s the perfect recipe to undermine the public’s belief that public officials work for the public good, not self-interest,” Sen. Merkley said in a statement shared with Al Jazeera.
The two major players in the prediction market are Kalshi and Polymarket.
Calsi is the only fully regulated exchange in the United States. Meanwhile, polymarkets will be banned in the US for three years in 2022. It entered the U.S. market for traders late last year, but has so far only been authorized for sports betting. Americans can look at other positions, but cannot bet. Although US users are banned, a CoinDesk investigation found that Americans are using the platform via VPN.
“We support Congress and regulators taking steps to crack down on insider trading and bring prediction markets under federal regulation domestically. Over the past several months, we have been lobbying policymakers on both sides of the aisle about the efforts we are making to ensure the integrity of our markets, and we are consulting with many policymakers, including Senator Merkley,” a spokesperson for Kalsi told Al Jazeera in a statement.
Polymarket did not respond to Al Jazeera’s request for comment.
The bill comes amid a new wave of political pressure on the industry. Democratic Sen. Chris Murphy of Connecticut is also working on legislation to rein in the industry, including banning transactions under government action.
At the same time, a new conservative coalition led by former White House Director of Management and Budget Mick Mulvaney wants the industry to be regulated more like sports betting.
