Our football betting expert Jones Knows offers his insight across the weekend action and tips up a 50/1 best bet treble.
West Ham vs Wolves, Friday 8pm, live on Sky Sports
Let’s get straight to one of the best bets of the weekend: Yerson Mosquera to be carded at 9/4 with Sky Bet.
Now, this is all about the potential duel with Adama Traore. If Traore starts and gets a run directly at Mosquera, the alarm bells should already be ringing for the defender. Under Nuno Espirito Santo, Traore has been an absolute magnet for drawing cards. He’s drawn 45 bookings in 6,222 minutes of Premier League football under Nuno, that’s elite-level output in this market of drawing a card every 122 minutes.
Friday 10th April 7:30pm
Kick off 8:00pm
And there were signs in the FA Cup that he’s getting back to that terrifying, direct best. Against Leeds, he drew two cards on his own and looked like a player defenders simply couldn’t live with when isolated one-on-one. That’s the key here.
Mosquera is exactly the type of defender Traore can rattle.
He’s already sitting on nine yellow cards in the Premier League this season, which tells you everything about his approach – it’s reckless. Add the fact that one more booking triggers a two-game ban, and you’ve got a player walking a disciplinary tightrope. That pressure can go one of two ways, but with Mosquera, history suggests he doesn’t exactly play within himself.
He’s combustible. He gets drawn into duels. At 9/4, it’s a price that simply underrates how likely this specific match-up is to produce a booking.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-1 | JONES KNOWS’ BEST BET: Yerson Mosquera to be carded (9/4 with Sky Bet)
Arsenal vs Bournemouth, Saturday 12.30pm
Is this ‘danger ahead’ for Arsenal as they look to close out the Premier League title?
Bournemouth are supposedly a tough nut to crack right now as they are unbeaten in 12 across all competitions if you only look at 90-minute results. Impressive on the surface, sure. But dig a little deeper and it’s not a pretty picture. The underlying data is screaming regression.
Across their last six matches vs Everton, West Ham, Sunderland, Brentford, Burnley and Manchester United, Bournemouth have allowed chances worth 11.54 expected goals. You’re essentially looking at a team giving up chances at a rate of 1.9 expected goals against per 90.
A team like Arsenal with their strong underlying process that is still +1.1 when it comes to xG supremacy should be creating some high probability chances at a regular rate against this opposition. Yes, the pressure could play a part but sometimes the numbers are just too loud to ignore. Arsenal to win and under 3.5 goals at 11/10 with Sky Bet is nice.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-0
Burnley vs Brighton, Saturday 3pm
The long-term data does support a drop in first-half goal averages in games after the international break – across the last 10 seasons, it drops from 1.3 goals per first half across all games and then around 1.1 per first half after an international break.
There is logic behind these numbers too which is important when assessing a pattern of data as international breaks disrupt rhythm from a player and tactical point of view.
For an example, in this exact gameweek last season the goals averages were down and we only saw 0.8 first-half goals from the 10 matches when teams were returning from a prolonged break.
Throw in the fact that these two teams haven’t played for three weeks and the 0-0 half-time score at 12/5 with Sky Bet rates as a juicy play.
SCORE PREDICTION: 0-1
Brentford vs Everton, Saturday 3pm – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
Don’t just gloss over the prospects of draws across the Premier League, the stalemate is doing some serious heavy lifting right now. And the 9/4 on the draw with Sky Bet looks a runner here.
Draws have been landing at a rate of 35 per cent across the last 130 Premier League matches. That’s well above the historical average and tells you plenty about the current state of the division – tight, tense and with very little separating teams from top to bottom. We’re seeing fewer games decided by moments of quality and more cancelled out by structure and caution.
This fixture fits that pattern perfectly. A low margin contest awaits.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1
Liverpool vs Fulham, Saturday 5.30pm, live on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
Just one point from their last three Premier League games has left Liverpool drifting in terms of their chances of finishing in the top five. They are now 4/9 with Sky Bet to end the season with Champions League football. It’s a price that makes no appeal whatsoever based on they arguably have the hardest schedule, with three games coming against current top six teams and six of seven vs current top-half clubs.
Since September 27, they’ve lost more Premier League games than they’ve won, with 11 clubs taking more points in that time. And, so far this season, they have lost five of 10 games to follow a midweek Champions League clash, taking 13 points from a possible 30.
Fulham are hard to resist at 4/1 with Sky Bet.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-2
Crystal Palace vs Newcastle, Sunday 2pm, live on Sky Sports
Newcastle to win and under 3.5 goals at 7/2 with Sky Bet immediately stands out as a play dripping in value.
On the face of it, you can make a solid case for Crystal Palace at home. They’re well organised, carry a threat in transition and have built a reputation for being awkward to play against. But when you dig a little deeper into the scheduling and historical trends around Oliver Glasner, the picture shifts quite dramatically.
Glasner’s record following a midweek European knockout game is a major red flag. His teams have won just once in their last 10 matches in that scenario, scoring just five goals across those fixtures. That’s a huge drop-off in attacking output and suggests fatigue, a lack of sharpness and a more cautious approach.
Newcastle, fresh from some time off, can take full advantage in a low scoring win.
SCORE PREDICTION: 0-1 | JONES KNOWS’ BEST BET: Newcastle to win & under 2.5 goals (7/2 with Sky Bet)
Nottingham Forest vs Aston Villa, Sunday 2pm, live on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
Nottingham Forest have had more managers than home wins (3) in the Premier League this season.
It’s not for the want of trying based on their shots volume. Forest have scored just 13 Premier League goals at the City Ground this season, despite having the eighth most shots at home (228) and they’ve scored only one goal from 100 shots taken in their last six Premier League home games.
Concentrating on the Forest player shots markets is the way to approach this one. Elliott Anderson has been the man to follow when it comes to shots for Forest of late having hit 24 in his last nine games, resulting in 2.65 shots per 90 average. He’s a play with Sky Bet to hit two or more shots at 9/4.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1
Sunderland vs Tottenham, Sunday 2pm, live on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
Appointing Roberto De Zerbi in a relegation scrap is like switching to a high-wire act without a safety net. Thrilling if it works, disastrous if it doesn’t.
Is De Zerbi really what Spurs need right now?
Zerbi offers philosophy, risk and a high ceiling of performance level. His teams can look like they’re playing a different sport to everyone else, but that uniqueness comes with volatility.
And volatility, in a relegation scrap, is a dangerous currency. De Zerbi has a history of clashing with those around him too – not ideal when calm decision-making is required in a crisis. There’s a reason some of Europe’s elite clubs have admired him from afar rather than taking the plunge.
This will be fascinating to see how Spurs react to his methods with such pressure in the background. It makes this a really tricky betting heat in isolation but there is a bet that does offer some potential as if this appointment goes wrong, it’s not going to quietly fizzle out. It’s going to unravel, meaning Spurs not to win another game this season at 15/2 with Sky Bet is worth a nibble to small stakes.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1
Chelsea vs Manchester City, Sunday 4.30pm, live on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
Over the last three seasons, Man City have taken 78 points from a possible 87 from April 1 onwards whilst Arsenal have taken 55 from a possible 84. That relentlessness up the run-in is a real thing masterminded by Pep Guardiola where his teams can stay focused yet produce elite performances to win in high pressure environments.
Nico O’Reilly is thriving in this type of environment with his runs into the box proving very difficult for opposition players to stop. He’s had 10 shots on target in his last eight games for City yet the algorithms are a little behind on this extra output meaning the 11/8 with Sky Bet for one or more O’Reilly shots on target is a value play.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-2
Manchester United vs Leeds, Monday 8pm, live on Sky Sports
Manchester United have lost just once in their last 14 Premier League games since Christmas. Playing at Old Trafford is once again one of the toughest fixtures to face in the Premier League and the market is replicating that with Michael Carrick’s side 1/2 with Sky Bet to take maximum points.
Leeds are always a tough nut to crack though, losing just twice across their last 10 matches. They will be very aggressive in the duels and Jayden Bogle will have a busy evening up against the dangerous ball carrying of Matheus Cunha, who has been responsible for drawing 24 cards off the opposition since the start of last season. Bogle has picked up a card in his last two appearances and is 5/2 with Sky Bet for the hat-trick.
