This Sunday will see the biggest Carabao Cup final ever. This is the first time that the two best league teams in the country will meet in the finals. Never before has there been so much influence on the first piece of silverware of the season.
It is often said that the real season run-in begins after the March international break. Sunday’s final, which will be broadcast live on Sky Sports, will be the last match before the suspension.
This will be the cliffhanger before the final act of Arsenal vs Man City begins. This match is a precursor to an important Premier League match between the two teams on April 19th. But looking at both teams’ seasons in the broader context will answer many remaining questions about both teams.
Arsenal reached the final on the eve of a decisive moment in modern history. With their significant lead at the top of the table a first Premier League title in 22 years beckons, the final is one of four trophy routes for the Gunners over the next eight weeks.
The Gunners are now five wins away from the title, with the other three competitions reaching their final stages, and Arsenal are 14 wins away from completing a historic quadruple. But crossing the line has been the main bottleneck in recent seasons.
Arsenal sit above City in the Premier League table, but it’s worth remembering that Mikel Arteta’s side are the ones chasing trophies, Pep Guardiola also has silver medal experience, and they’re also chasing a domestic treble.
“When you’re in this position and you haven’t won a trophy for years, it not only increases the need for trophies but also increases the desire,” Arteta said in a press conference on Friday.
“It’s something we have, it’s important to us and it’s something we’ve been trying to achieve for some time.”
Arsenal will also be heading to Wembley for the first time in six years. City have faced Guardiola 22 times since taking over as manager. “It’s an honor to be there, but it’s also a big challenge,” Guardiola said this week, as if to boast about his record in reaching this stage.
After all, this final was also Arsenal’s chance to secure a big win against City in a crucial part of the season, something they failed to deliver.
Arteta’s Arsenal have a pretty good record against Guardiola’s City, with the Gunners unbeaten in their last six games. However, the last time Arsenal beat City during this period was in the autumn or winter. They have yet to win against Guardiola in the spring since emerging as title contenders three seasons ago.
In 2023, Arsenal lost 4-1 to City in the Premier League, effectively handing Arteta the title to Guardiola. In 2024, the Gunners went to the Etihad Stadium again and drew 0-0, with Rodri criticizing their lack of winning mentality.
Last year they didn’t play this part of the season, so what will happen in 2026? Critics say this is usually the time when Arsenal “bottle it up”. This is a chance to clear those accusations.
“Believe me, we have that memory,” Bukayo Saka told Sky Sports. “Everyone knows we finished second three times in a row.
“This year I have a strong belief that we can do it. We have quality and we have a great team. That combination is what makes me believe.”
“We’ve gotten better at blocking out outside noise. People have said so much about us over the last few years and about our play and set-pieces and things like that that it’s numbing now.
“It’s the most important period of the trophy-winning season, it’s a big game and there’s a lot more at stake, but I feel like everyone is coping well.
“We’re just going to stay humble and stay grounded. We’re going to let people speak and take it game by game starting Sunday.”
For City, this final is not only a chance to take Arsenal down another notch at a crucial stage of the season, but also a chance to inject new energy into Arsenal’s pursuit.
Real Madrid’s elimination in the Champions League ruined Real Madrid’s quadruple hopes. One win in five games in all competitions is creating a narrative that this is not the City we are used to, this is not the City we have a perfect, perfect run-in with.
It may be too early to call this City’s ‘last chance’ to build momentum into the season, but defeat would certainly stamp their place as the second-best team in the region behind Arsenal.
It could also be a ‘full circle’ moment for the City manager, as rumors persist that Guardiola could leave City at the end of the season.
Guardiola scored victory for Arsene Wenger’s Gunners in an emotional moment when Arsenal were bottom of the League Cup final in 2018.
It was the City manager’s first trophy in England, and the first of 15 since then, but it also served as a reminder to Wenger that the football he helped shape was moving in a different direction. The legendary Arsenal manager stepped away from football management after a few months, as Pep’s football revolution was in full swing.
For Guardiola, this final could represent the same emotions that Wenger felt. This is no longer Guardiola’s game, with set-pieces, direct football and transitions becoming the norm. He himself has admitted this over the past year or so. Defeat at Wembley could mark a new era of Premier League football as defined by Arteta.
But City’s victory would show that Guardiola is still at the top of his game. That this new City team, which has seen a number of personnel changes over the past 15 months, can continue his successful era. If he does so, he may be able to persuade manager Guardiola to forego the final year of his contract with the club.
“In many respects we are slightly below[the required level]and we will develop further,” Guardiola said this week.
“I feel like we’re getting closer, but in other ways it’s going to take a little bit more time for people to realize and for the players to understand that we’re a strong team in a lot of departments. In a lot of ways, we’re getting closer. We’re not closing the gap in some areas, but in a lot of aspects we’re an exceptional team.”
This match used to be played as a match between Arteta and Guardiola, between master and disciple. Those stories are long gone. Now it’s in the form of a new trick for old dog Guardiola and Arteta.






