10 consecutive wins. 10 consecutive wins at Villa Park. It’s been 10 years since Leicester achieved the impossible. Will Aston Villa’s title race really take place?
“We feel we can win every game,” Morgan Rodgers said after beating Manchester United, once seen as Villa’s bogey team. Despite a period of uncertainty, they have won five and drawn one of their last six games.
A win could therefore be a memorable result for Villa and a season to remember. However, this feels like a crucial moment for Unai Emery’s team.
They are in great form, but the next two games could decide just how special this season will be. Chelsea away, Arsenal away – within three days. Both games will be broadcast on Sky Sports, and both games will focus on Villa.
These two games are more than just tough matches for the so-called “Big Six” teams. In any case, the word is put to the sword by Villa.
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Free to watch: Highlights of Aston Villa’s Premier League match against Manchester United
However, it was a tough match as Villa’s away performances did not necessarily match the results. Emery’s side have been trailing in each of their five away matches in the Premier League and will need a turnaround to win their remaining three games.
They will now face two teams who may not be as forgiving after another slow start at Villa. Chelsea’s best performances this season have come against better teams. It reminds me of when we took five points from Barcelona and Arsenal in quick succession.
Three days later comes the test for Mikel Arteta’s Gunners, who have won their last nine games at the Emirates Stadium.
Just four players have scored on Arsenal’s home soil in the last 12 games in all competitions, so if Villa start slowly again they may not get a chance to fight back against the best defense in the league.
All of this reinforces the theme that while Emery’s recent form has been spot-on in terms of results, his actual performances need more scrutiny. Villa have won a lot of games recently, but some may wonder if they have played particularly well.
Villa have won nine of their last 10 Premier League games, but Emery’s side have only won one of those games in the expected goals race, and that was against bottom club Wolves. That’s when you round up the total xG for each team.
Another interesting statistic is that if the match was decided by xG, Villa would be 15th in the Premier League standings.
What helps Villa in this regard is their opponents’ wastefulness at one end of the pitch, but also their ability to exceed their own expected goal numbers at the other end.
It helps to have a player like Rodgers on your team. “At no point in the game did I really think they played well compared to how they usually play,” Sky Sports’ Gary Neville said after Sunday’s win over Manchester.
“But when you have a special player who is doing well and can score goals of his quality, there is always a chance.”
Villa’s last three Premier League goals came from Rodgers, with a combined xG value of 0.1 for the three goals. It is no exaggeration to say that the England international’s skilled shooting has saved Villa in recent weeks.
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Ref Cam captures Morgan Rodgers’ two ‘world class’ goals against Manchester United from unrealistic angles
After all, the age-old question is what is the mark of a champion? Are you winning despite playing poorly? Or do we need a more sustainable method?
Villa, who sit three points adrift at the top of the Premier League, are title favorites, especially given the upcoming trip to the Emirates, and Villa were more than a match for Arsenal when the teams met in Birmingham a few weeks ago.
There’s no doubt about where they are now, but it’s still debatable whether they’re playing the football they need to keep up with the pace.
Watch Aston Villa’s next two away matches against Chelsea and Arsenal live on Sky Sports over the holidays.
Villa will visit Chelsea on December 27th with a 5.30pm kick-off, before visiting league leaders Arsenal on December 30th with an 8.15pm kick-off.
