Welcome to The Radar. Nick Wright’s Sky Sports column combines data and opinion to highlight must-know stories from the top and bottom of the Premier League. this week:
9️⃣ João Pedro, Chelsea’s striker
🧱 Maguire is key to Carrick at Manchester United
🔍 Two players to watch this weekend
The evolution of João Pedro
Few forwards have caused more problems for William Saliba and Gabriel this season than Joao Pedro, who last visited the Emirates Stadium. The Carabao Cup draw ended in Chelsea’s defeat, but Joao Pedro returns on Sunday and will be looking to repeat.
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Liam Rosenior gave a candid press conference after Chelsea drew 1-1 with Burnley
The 24-year-old showed incredible strength that night, pulling Arsenal’s centre-backs out of position and denying them with his back to goal. He connected plays, moved channels, got twice as many fouls as any other player, and gave Chelsea an outlet.
The only thing missing was goals, but those are rarely lacking these days. Joao Pedro has played in seven of Chelsea’s last nine games. Arsenal’s Victor Gokeres has become the only Premier League player to score more goals since the start of the year.
The increase in scoring from eight goals in the first 30 games of this season to seven in the last nine matches the arrival of manager Liam Rosenior, who said last week that Joao Pedro could develop into one of the best strikers in the world.
Some may call it fanciful, but there is no doubting the progress he has made. Joao Pedro’s goal against Burnley was his 11th in the Premier League this season. He reached that total despite losing the privilege of kicking penalties, which he enjoyed at former club Brighton.
That means a significant increase in his production. João Pedro has scored more than twice as many non-penalty goals in his top flight career. Only Erling Haaland and Antoine Semenyo have done better in the Premier League this season.
At Chelsea, where he played between No. 10 and No. 9 at Brighton and was joined by Enzo Maresca in July for £60m, Joao Pedro has been used almost exclusively in front of Rossenyol, despite the presence of Liam Delap.
Joao Pedro spends less time out wide and in his own half and more time in the opposition box.
In the previous matches against Chelsea and Arsenal, he returned to goal and proved his ability, but overall Joao Pedro has averaged fewer touches and fewer passes under Rosenior and has been less involved in the play overall, as the new manager looks to maximize his threat in the box.
João Pedro clearly enjoys a narrower focus. This allowed him to take roughly twice as many shots. And while he is still capable of producing spectacular shots, such as his first goal in the Champions League win over Napoli, he has mainly been looking for easy chances.
His goal against Burnley, when he crossed the line from Pedro Neto’s cross, was his second from inside the six-yard box under Rosenior and was his fifth goal of the season, tied for the most by a player alongside Leeds striker Dominic Calvert-Lewin.
João Pedro’s shot map shows an increased concentration of close-range chances
Of course, the quality of Joao Pedro’s shots has changed, thanks to the better service offered at Chelsea compared to Brighton. Excluding penalties, he averaged 0.12 expected goals per shot at Brighton last season, while at Chelsea he averaged 0.21 expected goals per shot.
Rosenior has challenged Joao Pedro to increase the intensity of his play, and he has also stepped up in both his pressing and attacking movements. He increased both the amount and effectiveness of his runs at the back.
The silver lining for Chelsea is that they may have finally found a number nine who can reach the numbers achieved by Diego Costa, the club’s last striker to score 20 Premier League goals in a season. He achieved the feat twice in his three years at Stamford Bridge.
Of course, Joao Pedro is still far from reaching that milestone this season. However, if he continues to score at the same rate, he will surpass his closest scorers: Nicholas Jackson, who had 14 points two seasons ago, and Tammy Abraham, who had 15 points in 2019/20.
Sunday, March 1st 4:25pm
4:30pm kickoff
But first, there is another opportunity to test Saliba and Gabriel with a trip to the Emirates Stadium on Sunday, with the striker establishing himself among the elite.
Maguire key to Manchester’s revival
Benjamin Sesco is also attracting attention as a No. 9, but Manchester United’s resurgence under manager Michael Carrick is also due to their defensive performances. 3 clean sheets in 6 games so far. Harry Maguire’s return brought about a change.
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Highlights of the Premier League match between Everton and Manchester United.
Maguire had not started for two months when Carrick took over due to a thigh problem, but his return to fitness proved timely for the new head coach. The 32-year-old is set to make his seventh successive start against Crystal Palace on Sunday.
He mainly featured alongside Lisandro Martinez, with Ruben Amorim’s back three now a thing of the past. But with Martinez absent through injury in Monday’s game against Everton, he proved to be just as influential next to Lenny Yolo as he used his experience to coach the young defender to reach double figures for clearances.
Harry Maguire has the highest duel success rate in the Premier League since January 17th.
Maguire’s defensive quality has been evident over the past six Premier League games. During that period, he won 36 of 44 duels, giving him the highest success rate of any player.
His future at Manchester United is uncertain, with his contract due to expire in the summer. England’s place at the World Cup is also not guaranteed, given he has yet to be called up by Thomas Tuchel. But clearly he still has a lot left to offer.
Sunday, March 1st 12:30pm
Player Radar: Other Players to Watch
Alex Iwobi and Emile Smith Rowe celebrated their former club Arsenal’s north London derby victory over Spurs in a video published on social media after helping Fulham beat Sunderland. What’s next? Spurs have a chance to inflict more pain on Igor Tudor’s side at home.
Live Radar: What’s on Sky this weekend?
On Friday Night Football, Wolves will host Aston Villa on Sky Sports Premier League and Main Event, kick-off from 7.30pm and live coverage from 8pm.
Leeds vs Man City will be broadcast live on Saturday Night Football from 5pm on Sky Sports Premier League and Main Event, with kick-off at 5.30pm.
Watch Brighton v Nottingham Forest, Fulham v Spurs and Man United v Crystal Palace on Sky Sports from 1pm on Sunday, kick-off at 2pm, followed by Arsenal v Chelsea at 4.30pm.
Read last week’s Radar column
The previous column was timely as it outlined the need for Arsenal to maximize Eberechi Eze’s potential ahead of his two-goal performance against Spurs.
