Super Bowl ad prediction market contract raises insider trading concerns

A version of this article first appeared in the CNBC Sports Newsletter with Alex Sherman. This newsletter brings you the biggest news and exclusive interviews from the world of sports business and media. Sign up to receive future editions directly to your inbox.

For many Americans, the best part of the Super Bowl is the commercials. You can make or lose money with them this year.

Prediction market platforms Calci and Polymarket are currently contracting out which companies will advertise during Super Bowl 60, which will be played between the Seattle Seahawks and the New England Patriots on February 8 in Santa Clara, California. Users can trade whether Salesforce, Verizon, or Coca-Cola will earn a spot in this year’s Super Bowl, for example.

While Polymarket trades are simply yes/no bets, Kalsi has made some more nuanced predictions, such as “Who will appear in a Big Game ad by February 9, 2026?”, with possible trades for Sidney Sweeney, Timothée Chalamet, and Harry Styles.

A new contributor to the advertising industry’s biggest night. As Super Bowl television viewership continues to grow, the price of Super Bowl commercials has gotten higher each year. Last year’s game was watched by a record 127.7 million people. The game, which aired on Fox, earned about $7.5 million per 30-second spot and more than $8 million in sales from about 10 ads.

NBC, which broadcasts the game this year, sold out all of its ad inventory averaging $8 million per 30-second commercial, with five to 10 ads selling for more than $10 million each, said Mark Marshall, NBC’s chairman of global advertising and partnerships. The closer to the game a company buys ad slots, the more they pay.

Marshall said technology companies have bought the most spots overall this year, but NBC defines technology relatively broadly, such as Uber Eats being considered a technology company. Only two car companies advertise during the game. Marshall said about 40% of this year’s advertisers have never purchased a Super Bowl spot before.

But the entry of prediction market platforms means Marshall has reason to keep the details secret.

For those who aren’t familiar with how these prediction markets work, they basically trade like stocks, with contract prices between $0 and $1. Depending on the action, the contract will trade up or down.

For example, “Which brands will be advertising during the Big Game in 2026?” According to Kalsi, Spotify skyrocketed on January 19th, rising from $0.35 to $0.69 before settling down. As of Friday morning, the price of Spotify’s “Yes” contract was $0.37.

If your predicted outcome comes true, you get paid, and you get paid $1 for every dollar you win, minus commissions.

Both Polymarket and Calci also offer other Super Bowl predictive trades, including “What song will be played during the halftime show?” and “Who will be at the big game?” (Lionel Messi? Elon Musk?), and traditional sportsbook “bets” like “Seattle vs. New England: Most Rushing Yards.”

Direct sports predictions like rushing yards are an unknown event, but there are probably hundreds, if not thousands, of employees who know whether a company plans to air a Super Bowl commercial. As such, some contracts are ripe for insider trading.

Current law prohibits insider trading in prediction markets, but industry experts are skeptical that the crippled Commodity Futures Trading Commission has the will or staff to police such issues.

Meanwhile, the question of whether sports event contracts qualify as financial derivatives or gambling has divided the sports betting industry and stalled federal courts.

“Several courts have held that sports-based event contracts are not derivatives subject to the CFTC’s authority,” said Jack Murphy, senior counsel at Akin Gump and former CFTC enforcement attorney. “These decisions are on appeal. Even if the sporting event contracts are not derivatives, criminal authorities may prosecute insider trading in prediction markets based on wire fraud theories.”

On Thursday, new CFTC Chairman Michael Selig announced that he has directed CFTC staff to rescind a proposed rule banning predictive trading on sports and politics. There will be new rules, he said.

Meanwhile, live sports continues to drive prediction market growth. Calci’s total trading volume is on track to increase 44% month over month, said Piper Sandler analyst Patrick Morley. The deal is “Who will win the Super Bowl?” trading volume has already exceeded $150 million.