A team in turmoil or a top-flight operator looking to prove their worth on home soil? What version of Australia will England show when the conversation ends and the cricket finally begins in one of the most anticipated Ashes series in memory?
Will Ben Stokes’ England be able to take on Australia’s aging, injured-plagued Australia at the right time, or will the Buzzballers end up getting burned if they choose to fight fire with fire?
No matter which side of the coin you fall on, no matter who you are, you can’t escape the bare statistic that it’s difficult to win a Test series away.
Rewind the clock 12 months and India’s vaunted side have arrived at the bottom of the table and got off to a good start with their first Test win in Perth, the same venue that opened the Ashes. After four Tests, they lost the series 3-1 and were heading home on the wrong side.
Mark Wood recovered from a hamstring injury ahead of the Ashes, but Australian seamer Josh Hazlewood missed the first Test
Since then, Australia finished runners-up in the previous World Test Championship cycle and had series wins over Sri Lanka and the West Indies. However, for some time now the narrative has been developing that this side is under pressure.
Where are England’s weaknesses? What kind of victory can Australia pull off in the early exchanges to put them on the right track to their first Ashes series win since 2015, apart from being without their talismanic captain Pat Cummins and seamer Josh Hazlewood, at least for the first Test?
How big is Cummins and Hazlewood’s failure?
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Michael Atherton has reacted to the news that Josh Hazlewood has been ruled out and Mark Wood is expected to be eligible for the first Ashes Test
Even before England arrived in Perth earlier this month, news that Cummins would miss the first Test with a back injury had already dramatically changed the dynamic in the Australian side.
But then fellow seamer Hazlewood withdrew with a hamstring strain, which compounded the situation, as did the size of England’s chances of winning under.
Australian journalist Adam Collins told Sky Sports: “If England don’t take advantage of this opportunity, it’s a disaster. It’s going to be a long road after the first Test.”
“We’ve known for a few months that Cummins would be unavailable, but Hazlewood performed well in the recent ODIs against India.
“At the final hurdle, as we were gearing up for this series, our bowler, who has been injury-prone over the past few years, picked up a minor injury. This is a big omission for Australia and we don’t know how long he will be out.
Pat Cummins faces competition to be fit for second Ashes Test in Brisbane
“England were objectively already in a very good position to win the first Test because of Cummins’ absence, but now they have a huge chance to nail Australia from the start.
“How many times have we said that in recent years? There has never been a better time for England to take back the Urn.
“England fans will not want to hear that it sounds very likely that Cummins will return to Brisbane ahead of schedule, perhaps with the pink ball (for the second Test). It’s going to be a real challenge for England, so they’ll have to take advantage of that.”
“A lot will depend on how well England get out of the blocks.”
Not only will Scott Boland and Brendan Doggett, another potential debutant, arrive to fill the bowling boots of Cummins and Hazlewood, their additions will also extend Australia’s tail beyond No. 8.
That is, unless Michael Nether, who boasts an elite batting average of 28.31 including five centuries, gets a contract.
Vulnerable upper order?
For Australia, there are more than just some issues to ponder over the ball. At the top of their batting order there is the possibility of a new opening partnership with England’s bowlers applying pressure.
“Usman Khawaja is a big ‘under the radar story’ in this series,” Collins said.
“He scored twice against Sri Lanka in Galle but missed out on the Caribbean, but it was Jasprit Bumrah who helped him on the pitch in Australia last year.
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Adam Collins talks about The Ashes’ potential batting line-up for Australia
“High-pace bowling has been a concern for Khawaja for some time. If Mark Wood and Jofra Archer can get on board with him, I don’t think the lead time for him to get going is too long.”
Khawaja, who turns 39 midway through the series, is likely to start in midfield alongside debutant Jake Weatherald at Optus Stadium from Friday.
The left-hander himself is not young at 31 years old, but the weight of his runs in domestic first-class cricket is what earned him the call-up.
“Wetherald is a very conservative pick,” Collins added. “He has been the leading scorer in the Sheffield Shield for the past two seasons, averaging in the mid-50s, and has played in several states and lived around Australia.
“From the outside looking in, he’ll look like an inexperienced opening pitcher, but from another perspective you’d say, ‘What better time to select him than when he’s at the peak of his powers?’
Opener Jake Weatherald could make his Test debut for Australia in Perth (Getty Images)
“The Kawajas have had a number of opening partners since David Warner retired. But if England can get in early and stay on track to get the 20 wickets they need to win a Test in this series, I really think they can have a ball game.”
Darwin-born Wetherald is the beneficiary of Australia’s decision to abandon flamboyant 19-year-old Sam Constas. After making an eye-catching debut against India in front of a capacity crowd on Boxing Day in Melbourne last year for the first time in half a century, Constas found it much harder to express himself on the spicy pitch against the West Indies.
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England bowler Mark Wood talks about Australia’s media criticism and imitation conditions, says hosts are series favorites
Despite the changes, it could still be confusing for Australia in the top order.
Will resurgent run machine Marnus Labuschagne face the new ball with Khawaja instead of Weathered?
A lot will depend on whether Australia want to play Cameron Green and Beau Webster in the top six, but a lot will depend on Green’s fitness to bowl after a long battle with a stress fracture in his back.
This particular configuration was chosen for the World Test Championship final against South Africa at Lord’s in June, but Australia ultimately failed to capitalize on their early innings lead and lost by five wickets.
Smith is more than a stand-in captain.
Steve Smith remains in good form heading into first Ashes Test representing New South Wales in state team (Getty Images)
Steve Smith will captain Australia in the first Test, while Cummins’ return to bowling will be monitored nationally, with more scrutiny than Wayne Rooney’s metatarsal fracture before the 2006 World Cup.
Smith himself has been nothing short of a run machine of late and will go into the series with little worry about the form of his bat, although he may need some practice with the coin toss after last week’s failure against New South Wales.
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Steve Smith made a huge mistake with the coin toss when he led New South Wales to their first Sheffield Shield defeat in eight years. Video credit: @cricketcomau
“After a four-year hiatus following his back-to-back in 2019, Smith is back to his best form,” Collins said.
“He was prolific, scoring two centuries in the commanding win against India and also capitalizing on his form as captain in the series in Sri Lanka, when Cummins was on maternity leave.
“He has already returned to action in the Sheffield Shield before this series, so the selectors will be excited to see how he looks on the pitch.
“Off the pitch, he’s much more comfortable these days as well as living in New York to escape the spotlight. He was desperate when he captained Australia in the 2017/18 series.
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Australia’s Steve Smith says England bowlers Mark Wood and Jofra Archer will be a “good challenge” for Australia during the Ashes
“Australia won that series comfortably 4-0, but his communication was still a bit off.
“He confided to some of us reporters that he was taking sleeping pills to get through the night and was really suffering, which led to a tragic chain of events in which he made a serious error in judgment in the subsequent sandpaper debacle in South Africa.
“He’s a much calmer person these days. He’s still attached to the bat, but with a few more miles he’s definitely grown as a person and as a cricketer.”
And a prophecy?
Andrew Strauss (right) was the last England captain to lower the urn in 2011 (AP Photo/Rob Griffiths)
So will England fans be in for another soul-sucking 5-0 comeback like 2006/07 and 2013/14, or will England be able to emulate the past heroics of Mike Gatting and Andrew Strauss’ teams in 1986/87 and 2010/11 and go home with the famous urn?
“All I’m saying is we’re keen to go into Sydney (the final Test) 2-2,” Collins said.
“All I want is for the Ashes series to survive into the new year. We need this in Test cricket.
“We need series that inspire, capture hearts, and get kids talking about games and playing them again.
“With T20 franchise leagues taking up more schedules now, we need a great Test series to talk about.
“I can’t think of two better teams that have given us this much hype over the last two or three years.”
Ashes Series in Australia 2025-26
always UK and Ireland
First Test: Friday 21st November – Tuesday 25th November (2.30am) – Optus Stadium, Perth Second Test (day/night): Thursday 4th December – Monday 8th December (4.30am) – The Gabba, Brisbane Third Test: Wednesday 17th December – Sunday 21st December (12am) – Adelaide Oval Fourth Test: Thursday 25th December – Monday 29th December (11.30pm) – Melbourne Cricket Ground Fifth Test: Sunday 4th January – Thursday 8th January (11.30pm) – Sydney Cricket Ground
