October 28, 2025 at a Chevron gas station in San Francisco.
Jason Henry | Bloomberg | Getty Images
President Donald Trump’s call for U.S. oil companies to rebuild Venezuela’s energy sector after the overthrow of President Nicolas Maduro is easier said than done.
chevron Wall Street analysts say the company has an advantage as the only major U.S. oil company currently operating in Venezuela. exxon mobil and conocophilips They left the country after former President Hugo Chávez nationalized the industry and seized their assets in 2007.
Venezuela boasts the world’s largest proven oil reserves at 303 billion barrels, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. But the U.S. oil majors have a long and expensive road ahead to return Venezuela to its peak production of 3.5 million barrels per day, reached in the 1990s.
“It’s a high-risk area for oil companies to invest in,” said Arne Roman Rasmussen, principal analyst and head of research at Global Risk Management.
Just maintaining oil production levels of 1.1 million barrels per day (bpd) will require about $53 billion in investment over the next 15 years, according to estimates by consulting firm Rystad Energy. According to Rystad, the capital investment needed to reach 3 million barrels per day by 2040 will more than triple to $183 billion.
Certainty and stability
Rapidan Energy founder Bob McNally said U.S. oil majors would want certainty about who is in charge in Caracas and how stable the government is.
David Goldwyn, who served as the State Department’s special envoy for international energy issues from 2009 to 2011, said energy investments are 30-year projects, so they need to know whether the legal and financial regime will last over time.
The current situation in Caracas is far from certain. President Trump declared on Saturday that the United States would run Venezuela after Maduro is overthrown. Secretary of State Marco Rubio appeared to backtrack, telling NBC News in an interview on Sunday that the U.S. would use leverage to pressure Caracas to meet U.S. demands.
Vice President Delcy Rodríguez has taken control of Venezuela, promising over the weekend that the government would protect the country’s resources, but later said Caracas was seeking cooperation with the United States.
Global Risk Management’s Rasmussen said the big question is whether Venezuela could return to a regime similar to Maduro’s in the future and nationalize its oil assets again.
surplus reserves
McNally, who served as a White House energy adviser under President George W. Bush, said U.S. oil majors would struggle with whether it makes economic sense to invest tens of billions of dollars in Venezuela when the world already has so much oil.
“There are many reasons to think this is going to be a long and winding road rather than a quick fix,” McNally said.
Chevron maintains a joint venture with state-run Petroleos de Venezuela through a special license issued by the U.S. government. These partnerships are responsible for about 23% of Venezuela’s output, according to JPMorgan.
“The company has secured significant oil resources through joint ventures and is also a major developer of the country’s energy infrastructure, so it would be well-positioned to potentially expand future production,” JPMorgan analyst Arun Jayaram told clients in a note on Monday.
Chevron stock rose more than 5% on Monday.
— CNBC’s Hayley Cuccinello contributed to this report.
