Hong Kong/Beijing
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In quick succession, US President Donald Trump has removed two of Beijing’s closest allies: Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro and Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.
The former was abducted from Caracas in an extraordinary overnight raid by US special forces and is currently shackled in a New York detention center. The latter was killed in a daring daylight bombing of central Tehran during a joint US-Israeli mission.
In the aftermath, China reacted angrily, accusing the United States of detaining and killing leaders of sovereign nations and of apparently attempting regime change while expressing friendship with Iran. But Beijing stands idly by as its geopolitical rival undermines the rules of engagement.
Chinese leader Xi Jinping maintains a strict pragmatism.
Iran ultimately ranks below Trump’s top priorities, including stabilizing relations with China and the United States, especially as he looks ahead to a summit with Trump scheduled for later this month in Beijing. China could also welcome a shift in Washington’s attention and military resources away from the Indo-Pacific, experts said.
“China is a smooth sailing friend. They’re good with words and they’re weak with risk,” said Craig Singleton, senior director for China at the Washington, D.C.-based Foundation for Defense of Democracies. “Beijing will speak out at the United Nations, but will avoid any large-scale aid to Tehran.”
China is the largest buyer of Iranian oil, but the country’s strategic importance to China is much more limited than many assume. Military cooperation between the two countries remains constrained, and trade and investment flows pale in comparison to cooperation with Gulf states, as Beijing seeks to maintain balanced relations across the Middle East.
William Yang, a senior analyst at the International Crisis Group, a Belgium-based think tank, said China “sees no benefit in escalating tensions with the United States over Iran.”
“China does not want to undermine the positive momentum it has built with the Trump administration over the last year, as it remains more concerned with maintaining the trade ceasefire and the overall stability of its bilateral relationship with the United States.”
China has long been Iran’s most important source of diplomatic and economic support. In addition to buying most of Iran’s oil exports, Beijing has condemned the “unilateral” sanctions imposed on Iran by the United States and supported Tehran’s claims that its nuclear program is peaceful.
In recent years, China has elevated Iran’s global standing by incorporating it into Beijing-backed groups such as BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, expanding Iran’s diplomatic space at a time when the West was isolated.
CNN reports that Chinese companies also supply chemicals used in Iran’s missile program and are helping build the country’s surveillance infrastructure. The Chinese government insists that its trade with Iran complies with international law.
However, China has consistently avoided direct involvement in conflicts between its partners and has shown little desire to delve into Middle East security issues beyond protecting its own assets.
That restraint was evident during last year’s Iran-Israel conflict and subsequent U.S. airstrikes, when China similarly offered only rhetorical support.
“China has long avoided presenting itself as a security guarantor even to countries in the Global South, as US involvement in Afghanistan and Iraq serves as a warning to deter Beijing from pursuing such ambitions,” Yang said.
Sino-Iranian relations have helped strengthen energy security and influence in the Middle East, but they have also courted other regional states, such as Iran’s rival Saudi Arabia, as they seek to balance the region. In 2023, he played the role of mediating the approach between the two.
Still, there are growing concerns in Washington about the deepening ties between China, Iran, Russia, and North Korea. Last September, leaders from all four countries gathered in Beijing in a remarkable display of unity in a massive military parade. China, Russia, and Iran have also been conducting regular joint military exercises in recent years.
“Iran is a long-standing partner of China, but it is a distant country and not existential or perhaps even important to China,” said Jia Ian Chong, a political scientist at the National University of Singapore, referring to China by its official name, the People’s Republic of China.
But Beijing provided limited support to Iran during two major military attacks last year, raising questions about its credibility as a partner in times of adversity.
“Others who work with or want to work with China on security issues may rightly ask whether Beijing will abandon China, especially if it is far from China, as in the case of Iran and Venezuela,” he said.
But analysts agree that whoever succeeds Khamenei, Tehran is likely to maintain ties with China because of its economic clout.
Zhu Zhaoyi, director of the Middle East Institute at Peking University’s HSBC Business School, said events in Iran also present some structural opportunities for China.
“Deep US involvement in military conflicts in the Middle East will inevitably divert US strategic resources and attention, objectively constraining US ability to maintain pressure on China in the Indo-Pacific,” Zhu said in an online article on Monday.
If the campaign against Iran continues, America’s arms supplies could be depleted. The Chinese government has banned the export of rare earth elements for military use, which could make it more difficult for the U.S. government to replenish resources. These elements are critical to a wide range of weapons, from missiles to fighter jets.
However, short-term disruptions to China, especially on the energy front, remain inevitable.
Almost all of Iran’s crude oil exports go to China, accounting for about 13% of China’s total seaborne crude oil intake, according to data analysis firm Kpler.
Energy trade between the two countries relies on a network of ships that filter Iranian crude to small, independent refineries on China’s coast, often through intermediary countries, a practice that separates refining from Chinese state-owned companies that are vulnerable to U.S. sanctions, analysts said.
These so-called teapot refineries are known to work with what are often referred to as shadow tanker fleets that use covert tactics to smuggle sanctioned goods. The Trump administration has ramped up pressure on Iran since last year, imposing sanctions on officials believed to be involved in both shipping and refining.
Despite Iran’s large oil imports, analysts believe the short-term impact will be manageable because China has diversified its oil supplies over the years.
Richard Jones, an oil analyst at Energy Aspects, told CNN that Iran has been increasing exports since mid-February and that private refineries are still able to access some Iranian crude through floating storage vessels, most of which are located off the coast of Singapore. In addition, the intake of Russian crude oil may also increase, he added.
Still, the bigger headache for Beijing appears to be the large-scale conflict in the region and major disruptions to the Strait of Hormuz, a key shipping route for crude oil from countries including Saudi Arabia and Kuwait.
Crude oil from the region accounts for about a third of China’s total demand and more than 50% of its seaborne imports, much of which is transported through the strait, Kupler said.
Iran controls the northern side of the strait, and on Monday an adviser to the commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) threatened to “set fire” on passing ships.
Even before the adviser’s comments, traffic on the waterway had been effectively halted due to safety concerns and an attack on an oil tanker in the area over the weekend.
Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning stressed the importance of the strait for trade and called for an immediate ceasefire.
“It is in the common interests of the international community to protect the security and stability of the region,” he said at a press conference on Tuesday.
But years of stockpiling could protect China from immediate supply shocks. According to Kpler data, China currently has about 1.2 billion barrels of onshore crude oil inventories, equivalent to about 115 days of seaborne crude oil imports.
China is likely to use the US military intervention in Iran to reinforce its message that while the US acts as a hegemon, especially towards countries in the Global South, it portrays itself as a champion of non-interference.
Some Chinese analysts argue that not providing security to its partners represents Beijing’s calculating approach to differentiating itself from the United States.
“This gives China more flexibility, reduces the risk of strategic overstretching, and avoids the costs associated with assuming the security of an ally,” said Jicheng Wang, deputy secretary-general of the China and Globalization Center, a nongovernmental think tank in Beijing.
“But it would also constrain China’s ability to shape tough security outcomes after a crisis turns violent,” it added, warning that China’s inaction could further embolden President Trump’s dangerous actions.
