Important points
March Madness begins Thursday, and much of the attention will be on the performance of mid-major and non-Power 4 (ACC, SEC, Big 10, Big 12) schools this week and next. The main theme of last year’s men’s tournament was near-historic levels of dominance for teams favored to win. In last year’s NCAA Tournament, underdogs won just 13 games, the fewest since the field expanded to 64 teams in 1985. One sample size does not determine trends. The sample size is also not 2, so a final conclusion cannot be drawn this year. Still, the logical explanation for last year’s pivot to championship contenders is NIL (name, image, likeness) compensation and the associated transfer portal, where college basketball players can get cash from their schools. Former Syracuse men’s basketball coach Jim Boeheim told CNBC this week that he believes the $10 million paid to players is the standard for competing for a national championship. Total spending for all of the school’s athletic programs is capped at $20.5 million, with men’s basketball requiring half that amount. But NIL collectives are still legal, allowing major donors to make up the difference, which Boeheim said is now essential to developing teams that compete for NCAA titles. That’s why he predicted the Sweet 16 would likely be heavily weighted toward the top 25 teams. “It’s going to be a lot harder for one of these mid-major players to come out. It’s going to be a lot harder,” Boeheim said. Long-term benefits of Cinderella Virginia Commonwealth University has become a March Madness darling, winning at least one tournament each year, but twice from 2011 to 2016, including a trip to the Final Four as the No. 11 seed in 2011. The Rams return to the tournament this year as the No. 11 seed and will face perennial powerhouse North Carolina in the first round. “Years after the tournament, what’s everyone talking about? It’s Bryce Drew hitting Valpo with the winning shot. It’s George Mason making it to the Final Four,” VCU athletic director Ed McLaughlin said in an interview. “Without that possibility, you’re looking at a glorified Power Four conference tournament.” The Cinderella run isn’t just fun for casual fans. It could be transformative for schools. The success of VCU’s March Madness was “the best possible marketing tool,” McLaughlin said. He noted a significant increase in donations, merchandise sales, enrollment, and intangible school pride. “If you can hit the ground running, it energizes the organization,” McLaughlin said. “There are long-term effects. We used to be a commuter school. Things changed in 2007 when VCU beat Duke (again as a No. 11 seed) and certainly made it to the Final Four. This seems to me to be a very real and potentially damaging loss if NIL effectively eradicates Cinderella. There are all sorts of possible treatments for NIL that could help this little athlete compete. Boeheim recommended signing players as independent contractors and limiting the number of transfers an individual player could make. McLaughlin advocated for stricter tax caps and luxury taxes on spending beyond the $20.5 million earmarked for schools. VCU spent about $5 million on men’s basketball this season, McLaughlin said. Mr McLaughlin also recommended regulations around tampering in an attempt to win over players, but said tampering was now “pervasive” and was occurring before and during matches. The head coach of No. 15 seed Queens, which plays Purdue on Friday, said last week that he was “very frustrated” that an assistant coach at an SEC school was aggressively recruiting players to the team who weren’t even in the portal yet. “Right now, it’s almost impossible to retain talent,” McLaughlin said. “These Cinderella teams are usually led by a group of upperclassmen who have something to prove. Under the current rules, whoever has a good freshman or sophomore in the America East, MAC, the players end up playing elsewhere because the money is too much.” Still, there’s another camp of people who may not think there’s a big problem here. The first two rounds of last year’s men’s tournament — rounds with few upsets — had the highest television ratings since 1993. “If more fans want to watch because Duke, Kentucky, Michigan, Kansas, etc., those fans are talking by watching more,” CBS Sports President David Berson told Front Office Sports earlier this month. This year’s tournament is likely to set new viewership records and have very few upsets. If so, it could be the worst outcome for Cinderella’s future. Correction: This article has been corrected to reflect that Virginia Commonwealth University has won at least one tournament each year, but twice from 2011 to 2016. A previous version incorrectly listed the number of years the school had at least one tournament win.
