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Home » Traders are betting on a rate cut, but a rate hike may also be on the table
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Traders are betting on a rate cut, but a rate hike may also be on the table

Editor-In-ChiefBy Editor-In-ChiefFebruary 19, 2026No Comments4 Mins Read
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A worker steps out of a truck at a Federal Reserve construction site after U.S. President Donald Trump reiterates his threat to sue Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell over his management of the building’s renovations, January 12, 2026, in Washington, DC. January 12, 2026.

Kevin Lamarque | Reuters

Most Federal Reserve officials agreed to keep interest rates on hold at their January meeting, but were divided on the future direction of monetary policy, according to meeting minutes released Wednesday. Some believed that supporting the labor market should be prioritized over controlling inflation. In other words, there was disagreement over whether interest rates should be left unchanged or raised if inflation did not fall.

Traders believe the Fed will cut interest rates by about 50% in June, according to the CME FedWatch tool. Perhaps we should also start considering the possibility of rising interest rates.

Major U.S. indexes rose on Wednesday, supported by tech stocks. Nvidia Then the stock price rose meta platform on Tuesday announced a deal to use the company’s next-generation systems. Amazon rose 1.8%, ending a nine-day losing streak that had wiped out more than $450 billion in market capitalization.

Oil prices rose more than 4% after U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance said Iran was “not yet willing” to accept certain “red lines” demanded by the U.S. government. With this in mind, the United States has no intention of taking military power off the table, Vance added.

Meanwhile, India is hosting the AI ​​Impact Summit, which will be attended by business leaders such as OpenAI CEO Sam Altman and Alphabet CEO Sundar Pichai.

Highlights of the event include: Adani Arthur Mensch, CEO of Mistral AI, plans to invest $100 billion in AI data centers in India and says more than 50% of enterprise software could be replaced by AI. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang pulled out of the event at the last minute, but the company announced Wednesday a partnership with an Indian venture capital firm to fund AI startups.

Finally, watch Reserve Bank of New Zealand Governor Anna Breman sit down for an exclusive interview with CNBC’s Squawk Box Asia. There, she will discuss the country’s inflation expectations and whether the central bank is likely to raise interest rates, as some Fed officials are inclined to do.

—CNBC’s Jeff Cox, Sean Conlon and Pia Singh contributed to this report.

What you need to know today

Nvidia will sell all of its shares in Arm, according to a document filed by the semiconductor giant with the SEC on Tuesday. Nvidia held the stock. arm According to past documents filed with the SEC, the company started investing in 2023, but reduced the amount toward the end of 2024.

US tech companies should be “a little concerned” about the subsidies their Chinese competitors are receiving from the government in the AI ​​race. microsoft Despite America’s advantage in chip power, President Brad Smith told CNBC.

Figma reports third-quarter earnings and quarterly guidance that beat Wall Street expectations. figma’s Fourth-quarter revenue increased 40% year-over-year, the statement said. Shares rose more than 15% in extended trading.

Major U.S. indexes rose on Wednesday as tech stocks lifted the market. pan-european Stocks 600 It rose by 1.2%. German life sciences company Bayer fell 7.2% after it offered a $7.25 billion settlement in a lawsuit related to the herbicide Roundup.

(PRO) JPMorgan favors foreign stocks over U.S. stocks, the bank’s equity strategists wrote in a note Monday. These are the regions and sectors where banks expect to outperform.

And finally…

Why India can help its supply chain by joining a US-led technology alliance

India is joining the US-led Pax Silica initiative, delivering the US government’s biggest victory yet in the race to shape and influence who has access to supply chains for advanced semiconductors and AI infrastructure.

Pax Silica is a Trump administration initiative aimed at securing a global supply chain for silicon-based technologies.

India’s participation, to be formalized at Thursday’s India AI Impact Summit in New Delhi, brings Pax Silica, one of the world’s largest technology markets and a member of the BRICS alliance, on board at a time when competition for AI hardware is intensifying across geopolitical blocs.

— Dan Murphy



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