Trump-Takaichi meeting: The crisis of war with Iran approaches

As Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi travels to Washington for the country’s first summit meeting with US President Donald Trump, the Iran conflict will loom large over the talks between the two leaders.

The Japanese prime minister will meet with President Trump on Thursday for the first time since he led the ruling Liberal Democratic Party to its biggest electoral victory since World War II in February.

“Mr. Takaichi will do what every Japanese prime minister has done and reaffirm that the Japan-U.S. alliance is not only the cornerstone of Japan’s security, but also the cornerstone of peace and stability in a free and open Indo-Pacific region,” Stephen Nagy, a professor of politics and international studies at Tokyo’s International Christian University (ICU), told CNBC in an email.

But experts told CNBC that topics related to Iran are likely to dominate the meeting.

Before the conflict with Tehran began on February 28, Takaichi’s meeting was scheduled to focus on Japan’s investment in the United States and increased defense spending, as well as discuss the now-postponed summit between President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping. said Jeffrey Hornung, head of Japan for national security research at the US-based think tank RAND.

The original plan was for Japan to come “with a gift” that would show it was a very positive partner, both defensively and economically, Hornung said in a phone interview. “But the big uncertainty is the extent to which the war in Iran will dominate the president’s thinking that day.”

In a post on Truth Social, President Trump called on allies, including Japan, to help secure the Strait of Hormuz, justifying it as being in the allies’ interests more than Washington’s. So far, no country has publicly stated support for President Trump’s efforts.

“I’m asking these countries to protect their territory because that’s their territory. That’s where they get their energy. And they should come and help us protect this territory,” Trump said.

According to public broadcaster NHK, Takaichi told Japan’s parliament on Tuesday that the government was considering what it could do within the framework of Japanese law, but also said it would put national interests first.

The Prime Minister’s Office also stated in a post on X, “There is no specific request from the United States to dispatch a ship to Japan.”

Takaichi also reportedly said on Monday that there were no plans to send naval vessels to escort ships in the Middle East.

“Given that Japan relies on the Strait for more than 90% of its oil imports, it would be hard not to talk about having Japan contribute in some way,” Hornung said.

Under the constitution, Japan’s Self-Defense Forces are authorized to use force only to protect Japan.

However, since 2015, Japan has reinterpreted its constitution to allow for a limited “right of collective self-defense,” allowing the Self-Defense Forces to assist allies if their attack poses a serious threat to Japan’s survival and security.

In response to a question about whether the Japanese government would be able to comply with President Trump’s request, Hornung said the hurdles would be high, given that Japan would need to declare a “situation of existential threat” before the Self-Defense Forces could use force. The Japanese government currently takes the position that the Iran conflict is not an “existence-threatening situation.”

ICU’s Nagy believes there is a little more leeway, and said Takaichi would “tactfully” avoid the issue of sending ships to the strait. In return, Japan may agree to contribute to missions and diplomacy, especially under President Trump’s leadership.

Jesper Coll, an expert director at Tokyo-based financial services firm Monex Group, said Takaichi would have to pay a high price for political capital if he agreed to deploy Japanese assets to the Middle East.

Takaichi is very passionate about strengthening and modernizing Japan to become “America’s unsinkable aircraft carrier in Asia,” and has the public’s support for that, Koll said in an email to CNBC, but he said the goal is not for Japan to flex its muscles in the Middle East.

“Japan as a passive support and protector is certainly true, but could Japan be an active leader and forward attacker? That’s like asking a divine sumo wrestler to play American football,” he added.

Apart from the war, Tokyo’s investment in the United States will also be a hot topic. Public broadcaster NHK reported on Wednesday that the two countries are “in the final stages of preparation” to release a joint document outlining a possible second round of investments totaling 11 trillion yen ($69.2 billion) in the United States.

If so, this would follow an initial $36 billion investment in the United States announced by President Trump in February and confirmed by Japan.

According to NHK, the next investment will include the construction of next-generation nuclear reactors as well as natural gas power plants.

Under the trade deal agreed in July, the Japanese government will invest a total of $550 billion in the United States in exchange for President Trump lowering tariffs on Japanese exports from 25% to 15%. However, these tariffs were later reversed by a Supreme Court ruling, and President Trump instead imposed a 10% tariff worldwide.

“If (Takaichi) can come to a clear conclusion that Japan is not going to face further tariffs through the various mechanisms that (President Trump) currently has in place, that would be seen as a victory,” Randland’s Hornung said.

He added that the Japanese people do not support the war, and if Takaichi can return to Tokyo without involving Japan in the Middle East or being criticized by President Trump, “I think that would be a victory for her.”