Trump to meet with China’s Xi for first time in second term as trade deal remains unresolved

US President Donald Trump will meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping this week as part of a tour of Asia, as the world’s two largest economies seek a so far elusive trade deal and ease tensions.

White House Press Secretary Caroline Levitt told reporters last Thursday that President Trump will meet with his Chinese counterpart on October 30, on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit.

President Trump said on October 23 about his upcoming meeting with President Xi: “I think we’re going to do very well, and I think everyone will be very happy.”

On October 23, South Korean presidential security adviser Wie Sung-lak confirmed the state visit of President Trump and President Xi during the APEC summit, but China has not issued an official statement regarding this.

This is the first direct meeting between the two leaders since Trump returned to office in January. The two leaders have spoken by phone at least twice this year, but their last meeting was in 2019 during President Trump’s first term.

The high-stakes meeting comes as delicate measures to ease trade tensions between the world’s largest economies are set to expire on November 10 unless they can agree to extend them again. President Trump has also set a deadline of November 1 for the 100% tariffs announced earlier this month.

The trade truce has been threatened in recent weeks by a wave of new restrictions, including high port fees on each other’s ships and expanded restrictions on exports of technology and rare earth minerals.

The two economic powers are also at odds over lingering issues such as tariffs, agricultural purchases, the influx of fentanyl and geopolitical flashpoints such as Taiwan.

“This will be a high-risk, high-reward summit,” said Han Sheng Lin, China director at global consulting firm Asia Group. While avoiding “big headline concessions,” he added that “both sides will try to hit the ‘reset’ button” on a relationship rattled by the latest retaliatory regulations.

Han said the two countries may agree to resume ongoing trade talks rather than a comprehensive trade deal, stressing that the more serious structural disputes have not been resolved and “may never be resolved.”

President Trump told reporters on Air Force One on October 19 that rare earths, fentanyl, soy and Taiwan are among the top issues the United States should discuss with China. A senior Taiwanese diplomatic official said on October 21 that Taipei is in close contact with the US government and will closely monitor the Trump-Xi meeting.

At a press conference on China’s economic development plan on October 24, Commerce Minister Wang Wentao emphasized that the United States and China can still find ways to dialogue and cooperate, rather than heading toward decoupling.

China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Chinese embassy in the United States did not immediately respond to requests for confirmation about Xi’s visit to South Korea.

China’s Ministry of Commerce announced on October 23 that a delegation led by Vice Premier He Lifeng, who is also the country’s top trade negotiator, will meet with US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent in Malaysia this week to discuss trade and economic issues.

Tensions between the United States and China have flared up again in recent weeks, with both sides seeking to increase their influence ahead of crucial negotiations.

But analysts said the confirmation of a meeting between Trump and Xi signaled an intent to ease tensions and get negotiations back on track.

Dan Wang, China director at political consultancy Eurasia Group, said the fact that the talks are taking place suggests that China will commit to certain concessions, such as agricultural purchases and investments in the United States, and prioritize rare earth approvals to the United States, while the United States may consider loosening technology restrictions on China.

In early October, the Chinese government significantly expanded export restrictions on rare earth minerals and related technology, and President Trump retaliated by threatening to impose 100% tariffs on Chinese goods. Bessent accused China of trying to weaken the global economy and “pull other countries down with it.”

The Trump administration is also considering restricting exports to China of most products built with U.S. software and reportedly plans to launch a trade investigation into China’s failure to abide by the terms of trade agreements signed during Trump’s first term.

Earlier this month, the president threatened to cancel talks with Xi amid anger over Beijing’s expanded export restrictions on rare earth minerals. But in recent days, Trump has softened his rhetoric, emphasizing his “great relationship” with Xi and saying he expects the meeting to result in a “good deal” on trade.

The president said on October 22 that during his upcoming visit to South Korea, he was scheduled to have “long-term” talks with Xi, and that he hoped to reach an agreement with him on soybean purchases and limits on nuclear weapons.

In the face of extensive technology regulation by the United States in recent years, China has pledged to become even more technologically independent over the next five years, the ruling Communist Party said in a new economic blueprint released on October 23.

At a press conference on October 24, Chinese leaders pointed to complex external challenges and emphasized Beijing’s desire to reduce dependence on the United States while advancing its own technological ambitions.

Gabriel Wildeau, managing director at advisory firm Teneo, said that while both countries maintain significant influence, China appears to be “open to withdrawing from agreements that do not meet their objectives,” while President Trump may want to avoid invoking the threat of 100% tariffs.

Despite the recent escalation, the upcoming meeting between Trump and Xi will be key to restoring “some calm to the bilateral relationship” and set the stage for a push toward final negotiations for a trade deal in early 2026, Wildow added.

President Trump is scheduled to visit Tokyo on October 27th and meet with Japan’s new Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi before heading to South Korea.

—CNBC’s Evelyn Cheng contributed to this report.